河西走廊东部低温事件变化特征

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据1960—2015年河西走廊东部5个气象站逐日最低、平均气温资料，通过固定阈值和百分位阈值法定义了低温事件，采用气候统计学方法，分析了该区域低温事件的强度、极值和日数的变化特征，统计结果显示，受海拔高度、地形地势和植被覆盖的影响，河西走廊东部低温事件的空间分布均存在明显地域差异，均为高寒山区天祝强度和极值最强，日数最多，绿洲平原区凉州强度和极值最弱，日数最少。河西走廊东部年代和年低温事件强度和极值呈减弱趋势，日数呈减少趋势，2010—2015年减弱和减少的趋势尤为明显。年低温事件强度、极值和日数的时间序列均存在着周期性变化，但都没有发生气候突变，只出现了转折年份。两种标准的低温事件均出现在1~3月和11~12月，强度、极值和日数高峰值均在1月或12月。年低温事件存在一定的异常性，正常低温事件强度、极值和日数的年份概率在64.3%～80.4%，对安全生产造成危害的低温事件强度、极值偏强和特强年份的概率在7.1%～16.1%，日数偏多和特多年份的概率共为16.1%。本研究可为低温的预报预警提供技术支持，同时可为地方政府提供准确的决策依据，对区域气候变化研究和经济发展有重要意义。

关键词: 低温事件, 平均气温, 变化特征, 河西走廊东部

Abstract: Basing on the daily minimum and average temperature data of 5 meteorological stations (Yongchang, Liangzhou, Minqin, Gulang, Tianzhu) in east of Hexi Corridor during 1960-2015, the standards of low temperature events were defined by fixed threshold and percentile threshold method. Variation characteristics of intensity and extreme value and days of low temperature events were analyzed by using climatic statistical method in the region. The statistical results showed that spatial distributions of low temperature events have obvious regional differences because of influence of altitude, topography and vegetation cover in east of Hexi Corridor, intensity and extreme value are the strongest and days is the most in alpine mountain Tianzhu, intensity and extreme value are the weakest and days is the least in plain area Liangzhou. Intensity and extreme value of low temperature events show weakening trends and days of low temperature events shows decreasing trend by age and year in east of Hexi Corridor, weakening and decreasing trends are particularly obvious from 2010 to 2015. Climate tendency rates of intensity and extreme value and days on weather standard are 0.253℃·(10 a)^-1, 0.508℃·(10 a)^-1 and -1.158 d·(10 a)^-1, and that on average standard are 0.09℃·(10 a)^-1, 0.447℃·(10 a)^-1 and -2.811 d·(10 a)^-1. Time series of intensity and extreme value and days on weather standard have 7~9 a and 8~10 a and 8~10 a quasi periodic changes, and that on average standard have 7~9 a and 6~8 a and 8~10 a quasi periodic variations. Intensity and extreme value and days of low temperature events on two standards have no abrupt climate changes, and have only turning years, turning years are exactly same, and turning years of intensity, extreme value and days are in 1981 and 1984 and 1984, respectively. Intensity and extreme value and days of low temperature events on two standards are all from January to March and from November to December, and high peak values are all in January or December. Annual low temperature events have certain abnormal, normal year probabilities of intensity and extreme value and days are in 64.3%~80.4%, strong and very strong year probabilities of intensity and extreme value are in 7.1%~16.1% and more and very more year probabilities of days are all 16.1% that can cause hazards for safety production. In this paper, change rules of intensity and extreme value and days of low temperature events were analyzed and summarized in east of Hexi Corridor, and these conclusions can provide technical support for forecast and warning of low temperature events, At the same time, that can also provide accurate decision-making basis for the local government, and it is of great significance to regional climate change research and economic development.

Key words: low temperature events, average temperature, variation characteristics, east of Hexi Corridor

中图分类号:

P423

丁文魁, 杨晓玲, 汪作成, 岳平. 河西走廊东部低温事件变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1): 17-24.

DING Wen-kui, YANG Xiao-ling, WANG Zuo-cheng, YUE Ping. Variation characteristics of low temperature Events in East of Hexi Corridor[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(1): 17-24.

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