关键词: 丝绸之路经济带, 物流绩效指数(LPI), 进出口贸易, 贸易引力模型, 新疆

Abstract: Discussion on the logistics level of counties along the"Silk Road Economic Belt"and its impact on the international trade of Xinjiang is of great realistic importance to promote China and Xinjiang to implement the strategy of"the Belt and Road". Based on the analysis of the logistics performance level of countries along the"Silk Road Economic Belt"and the current situation of the international trade between Xinjiang and the countries along the"Silk Road Economic Belt",by means of expanding trade gravity model,the paper analyzed the impact of logistics performance level and other factors on bilateral trade. The results show:(1)Among the countries along the"Silk Road Economic Belt",the countries whose economy is developed and has perfect social economic system,have higher logistics levels;while the logistics levels of developing countries are lower. From high to low,the logistics levels in each region rank as:Western Europe,Southern Europe,Eastern Europe,South Asia, West Asia,and Central Asia. The highest logistics level in 2014 is in Germany(4.09),the lowest is in Afghanistan(1.96);the total import and export trade volume between Xinjiang and the countries along the"Silk Road Economic Belt"is growing rapidly,rising from 12.832 billion dollars in 2007 to 22.850 billion dollars in 2014. The main international trade partners of Xinjiang are the SCO countries;Kazakhstan is Xinjiang's largest trade partner,followed by Kyrgyzstan,Russia,Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In 2014,the total import and export volume between Xinjiang and these countries accounted for 83.81% of the cumulative proportion of the total import and export trade volume between Xinjiang and the countries along the"Silk Road Economic Belt".(2)The logistics level of the countries along"Silk Road Economic Belt"has a positive effect on promoting the national trade of Xinjiang and themselves. And to some extent,this can reduce the resistance of geographic distance towards mutual trade. The elasticity coefficient is 0.818. The five control variables:economic scale,population scale,economic opening degree,convenient business environment,whether it is the member of the SCO,have positive effect on promoting the import and export volume of Xinjiang,and their elasticity coefficients are 2.488,3.095,2.996, 2.732 and 3.061,respectively;while two control variables,index of correlation of both states' per capital GDP and the geographical distance from both sides,have a negative effect,and the elasticity coefficients are -0.142 and -0.501,respectively.(3)In terms of different countries,the improvement of European countries' logistics levels played a great role in promoting the national trade between Xinjiang and them,followed by West Asia countries and their neighboring countries. The relationship of the elasticity coefficients is:European countries (0.401)> West Asia countries(0.352)> neighboring countries(0.196). In addition,the economic scale,population size and other control variables have certain influences on the import and export trades between Xinjiang and West Asia,Europe,neighboring countries.

Key words: Silk Road Economic Belt, Logistics performance index, import and export trade, trade gravity model, Xinjiang