新疆全要素生产率估算及其经济增长源泉分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为深入探究新疆经济增长的驱动因素，基于1990-2015年新疆统计数据，运用索洛残差法对新疆的全要素生产率进行了估算，并对估算结果与影响新疆全要素生产率变动的技术进步因素和制度变迁因素进行了计量分析。研究表明：（1）新疆经济增长主要依赖资本和劳动力等要素投入驱动，是一种典型的要素投入型经济增长方式。（2）新疆全要素生产率变化具有很强的累积性和路径依赖性，其中技术转移和转化是新疆全要素生产率变化的主要原因，而制度进步和自主研发对新疆全要素生产率变化的影响不明显。（3）新疆制度发育尚不完全，阻碍生产要素优化配置的因素很多。（4）新疆的R&D经费投入偏低，尚未形成规模效应，未能显著地促进新疆全要素生产率的提高。基于本文的研究结论给出相应的政策启示。

关键词: 全要素生产率, 经济增长, 技术进步, 制度变迁, 新疆

Abstract: Research on the source of economic growth is one of the key issues in the study of macroeconomics and regional sustainable development. Total factor productivity(TFP)is the output growth due to technical progress,efficiency improvement and other factors,while remove the capital and labor inputs,which is the residual error after excluding the contribution of factor inputs. Total factor productivity(TFP)is an important tool to analyze the source of economic growth,and the analysis result is an important basis for government to formulate long-term economic growth policies. Meanwhile,total factor productivity is an important index to measure the quality of economic growth of a country or a region,and it is also one of the important goals of economic growth. With China's economy entered a new normal period,it will become an important issue for Xinjiang about how to achieve sustainable development. Based on the annual data of Xinjiang during1990-2015,this paper used Solow residual method to calculate the total factor productivity(TFP)of Xinjiang. Moreover,in order to explore the source of the sustainable development of Xinjiang,econometric analysis was applied to identify the role of each influence factor,such as technological progress and institutional change quantitatively. The results show as follows:(1)The momentum of economic growth is still derived from the capital and resource input in Xinjiang,and it is a typical economic growth model driven by factor input.(2)The total factor productivity of Xinjiang has a strong accumulation and path dependence. Technology transfer and transformation are the main reasons for the change of total factor productivity,while the impact of institutional improvement and the development of independent research on the total factor productivity of Xinjiang is not obvious.(3)The institutional development of Xinjiang is not complete,there are many factors that hinder the optimal allocation of production factors.(4)The R&D funding of Xinjiang is still low,the scale effect has not yet formed,thus it fails to effectively promote the improvement of total factor productivity(TFP). Finally,based on the conclusions of this paper,we draw some useful implications for the structural reform on the economic supply side of Xinjiang.

Key words: TFP, economic growth, technological progress, institutional change, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

F127

王兴民, 王强, 董洁芳. 新疆全要素生产率估算及其经济增长源泉分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(4): 888-896.

WANG Xing-min, WANG Qiang, DONG Jie-fang. Estimation of total factor productivity and the analysis of the source of economic growth in Xinjiang[J]. , 2017, 40(4): 888-896.

参考文献

[1] 易纲,樊纲,李岩. 关于中国经济增长与全要素生产率的理论思考[J]. 经济研究,2003,(8):13-20[. YI Gang,FAN Gang, LI Yan. A theoretical analysis on economic growth in China and total factor productivity[J]. Economic Research Journal,2003, (8):13-20.]

[2] 胡鞍钢. 重塑中国经济地理和世界经济地理[J]. 政治经济学评论,2015,6(4):10-15[. HU An'gang. Reshaping China's economic geography and world economic geography[J]. China Review of Political Economy,2015,6(4):10-15.]

[3] 胡鞍钢,周绍杰,鲁钰锋,等. 重塑中国经济地理:从1.0版到4.0版[J]. 经济地理,2015,35(12):1-10[. HU An'gang,ZHOU Shaojie,LU Yufeng. Reshaping Chinese economic geography:from Version 1.0 to Version 4.0[J]. Economic geography,2015, 35(12):1-10.]

[4] 熊传合,杨德刚,张新焕,等. 新疆生态经济系统可持续发展空间格局[J]. 生态学报,2015,35(10):3428-3436[. XIONG Chuanhe,YANG Degang,ZHANG Xiaolei,et al. Research on the spatial patterns of ecological and economic sustainable development capacities in the Xinjiang Region[J]. 2015,35(10):3428-3436.]

[5] 张煜,孙慧. 基于DEA-Malmquist指数法的省域全要素生产率比较研究[J]. 干旱区地理,2016,39(2):435-442[. ZHANG Yu,SUN Hui. A comparative study of provincial total factor productivity based on DEA-Malmquist index method[J]. Arid Land Geography,2016,39(2):435-442.]

[6] 杨晶,杜宏茹,楚新正. 基于DEA方法对新疆城镇发展效率的空间差异研究[J]. 干旱区地理,2015,38(5):1061-1068.[YANG Jing,DU Hongru,CHU Xinzheng. Spatial difference analysis of urban scale efficiencies in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography,2015,38(5):1061-1068.]

[7] 魏下海,余玲铮. 中国全要素生产率变动的再测算与适用性研究——基于数据包络分析与随机前沿分析方法的比较[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2011,(3):76-83[. WEI Xiahai,YU Lingzheng. Reestimating total factor productivity growth of China and its applicability:a comparison between DEA and SFA[J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2011, (3):76-83.]

[8] 郭庆旺,贾俊雪. 中国全要素生产率的估算:1979-2004[J]. 经济研究,2005,(6):51-60[. GUO Qingwang,JIA Junxue. Estimating total factor productivity in China[J]. Economic Research Journal,2005,(6):51-60.]

[9] SOLOW R M. Technical change and the aggregate production function[J]. Review of Economics & Statistics,1957,39(3):554-562.

[10] GAO Y Q,HAN-RONG Y U,SONG M L,et al. The economic growth effects and efficiency of public expenditure on education in China's province:based on empirical analysis of panel data and DEA[J]. Eastern Forum,2016.

[11] GOLDSMITH R W. A perpetual inventory of national wealth[M]. National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc,1951.

[12] 单豪杰. 中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(10):17-31[. DAN Haojie. The re-estimation of China's capital stock:1952-2006[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2008,(10):17-31.]

[13] 张军,章元. 对中国资本存量K的再估计[J]. 经济研究,2003, (7):35-43[. ZHANG Jun,ZHANG Yuan. Recalculating the capital of China and a review of Li and Tang's article[J]. Economic Research Journal,2003,(7):35-43.]

[14] 赵志耘,杨朝峰. 中国全要素生产率的测算与解释:1979-2009年[J]. 财经问题研究,2011,(9):3-12[. ZHAO Zhiyun,YANG Chaofeng. Estimation and explanation of China's total factor productivity:1979-2009[J]. Research on Financial & Economic Issues,2011,(9):3-12.]

[15] 徐晓莉,郇志坚. 新疆全要素生产率估算及经济增长方式研究:1978-2009年[J]. 新疆大学学报:哲学·人文社会科学版, 2012,40(2):6-11[. XU Xiaoli,HUAN Zhijian. Total factor productivity estimation and economic growth pattern in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Xinjiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences Edition),2012,40(2):6-11.]

[16] 郭庆旺,吕冰洋. 分税制改革与税收快速增长:基于分权契约框架的分析[J]. 税务研究,2006,(8):10-14[. GUO qingwang, LV bingyang. Tax sparing system and the fast increase of tax revenue:an analysis based on the contract theory[J]. Taxation Research,2006,(8):10-14.]

[17] 郭庆旺. 中国财政体制安排的激励效应及其财政经济影响(英文)[J]. Social Sciences in China,2012,(1)[. GUO Qingwang. The incentive effects of the institutional arrangements of China's fiscal system and their influence on finance and economics[J]. Social Sciences in China,2012,24(1):104-107.]

[18] 靳涛. 中国经济增长与制度变迁的互动关系研究——基于新中国60年经济发展经验的视角[J]. 厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011,(4):8-16[. JIN Tao. Interactive relationship between China's economic development and structural change:an empirical perspective based on China's economic development in the past 60 years[J]. Journal of Xiamen University,2011, (4):8-16.]

[19] 宋亚君,高志刚,韩延玲,等. 新疆区域经济增长中的全要素生产率的实证分析基于非参数Malmquist指数方法[J]. 干旱区地理,2012,35(3):503-508.[SONG Yajun,GAO Zhigang, HAN Yanling,et al. Empirical analysis of total factor productivity of Xinjiang:a nonparametric Malmquist index approach[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(3):503-508.]

[20] 赖明勇,张新,彭水军,等. 经济增长的源泉:人力资本、研究开发与技术外溢[J]. 中国社会科学,2005,(2):32-46[. LAI Mingyong,ZHANG Xin,PENG Shuijun,et al. The source of economic growth:human capital,R& D and technical spillovers[J]. Social Sciences in China,2005,(2):32-46.]

[21] 纳尔逊. 经济增长的源泉[M]. 北京:中国经济出版社,2001.[NELSON Richard R. The sources of economic growth[M]. Beijing:China Economic Publishing House,2001.]

[22] 金玉国. 宏观制度变迁对转型时期中国经济增长的贡献[J]. 财经科学,2001,(2):24-28.[JIN Yuguo. The contribution of macro institutional change to China's economic growth during the transition period[J]. Finance & Economics,2001,(2):24-28.]

[23] 张小雷,杜宏茹. 中国干旱区城镇化发展现状及新型城镇化路径选择[J]. 中国科学院院刊,2013,(1):46-53.[ZHANG Xiaolei,DU Hongru. New type of urbanization in arid zone of China:regional characteristics and strategical choice of sustainable development path[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2013,(1):46-53.]

[24] 卢思佳,张小雷,雷军,等. 新疆城市经济区划分及影响范围[J]. 干旱区地理,2010,33(2):300-305.[LV SiJia,ZHANG Xiaolei,LEI Jun,et al. Division of urban economic region and its influence scope in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography,2010, 33(2):300-305.]

[25] 齐胜达,雷军,段祖亮,等. 中国丝绸之路经济带区域物流空间差异及其演化研究[J]. 干旱区地理,2016,39(1):207-215.[QI Shengda,LEI Jun,DUAN Zuliang,et al. Spatial difference and evolution of regional logistic in Silk-road Economic Belt in China[J]. Arid Land Geography,2016,39(1):207-215.]

[26] 文斌,张小雷,杨兆萍,等. 欠发达地区旅游公共服务供给演化及驱动机制探讨[J]. 干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1282-1289.[WEN Bin,ZHANG Xiaolei,YANG Zhaoping,et al. Discussion on evolution and driving mechanism of tourism public service supply in underdeveloped area[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015,38(6):1282-1289.]