新疆相对资源承载力评估模型构建及其实证分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在分析了区域人地关系系统基础上构建区域PRED系统，相对资源承载力模型进行了4方面改进：（1）基于人地关系理论和可持续发展理论构建区域PRED系统模型，将人口、资源、环境、社会和经济各子系统相对资源承载力进行整合。（2）在自然资源子系统中加入了林业用地面积和建设用地面积两个重要指标，在环境资源子系统中加入了环境污染治理投资总额，并在社会资源了系统中加入了全社会固定资产投资总额这一指标。（3）提出了加权平方平均相对资源承载力模型，并利用该模型对新疆维吾尔自治区（以下简称新疆）2000-2014 年相对资源承载力进行。（4）结合脱钩理论对相对资源综合承载力与资源环境、社会经济因子之间的关系进行研究。结果表明：采用改进后的相对资源承载力模型得出评价结果更符合资源匹配度较差地区的实际情况；新疆各要素相对资源承载力平均水平由大到小的顺序是：平均自然资源承载力、平均综合承载力、平均环境资源承载力、平均社会资源承载力、平均经济资源承载力。研究期间一直处于富余状态，自然资源优势相对突出，但是环境资源、经济资源、社会资源劣势也很明显，新疆综合承载力与资源环境、经济社会要素的矛盾十分突出。

关键词: 相对资源承载力, 模型改进, 实证分析, 新疆

Abstract: Regional integration and economic globalization make the original independent regional system, closed system gradually evolve into an open, dynamic system, so that the constraints of regional resources and environmental on human development become weaker because of the circulation and exchange of resource elements. Regional resources environmental carrying system should be a dynamic system, the level of the regional resources and environment carrying capacity does not necessarily depend on the"short board elements", therefore the traditional relative resources carrying capacity model to measure the regional resources carrying capacity is significantly limited. Based on the previous studies on resources relative carrying capacity models, this paper makes four modifications as follows:(1)the regional PRED system model is built on basis of man-land relationship theory and sustainable development theory to coalesced the carrying capacity of resources of the five subsystems including population, resources, environment, economy and society; (2)in the subsystem natural resources, two important indicators, forestry land area and construction area, are added; the total investment in the treatment of environmental pollution indicator is added to the environment resources subsystem and the social resources subsystem adds the total investment in fixed assets in the whole country; (3)a weighted quadratic mean model of relative carrying capacity is proposed, and using this model, an empirical analysis of the relative carrying capacity of resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (hereinafter referred to as Xinjiang) is carried out from 2000-2014; (4)the relationships between comprehensive resources carrying capacity and factors are analyzed using the relative decoupling theory. The results show that: the improved carrying capacity model draws more realistic evaluation results in poor matching resource areas and provides a new idea for the quantitative analysis of regional resources and environment carrying capacity; the descend order of relative carrying capacity of each element is: natural resources carrying capacity, synthetic carrying capacity, environmental resource carrying capacity, social resources carrying capacity, and economic resources carrying capacity. The relative carrying capacity of resources in Xinjiang has been in surplus state, the advantages of natural resources are relatively prominent and the environmental resources, economic resources, social resources disadvantages are also obvious, and the contradictions among comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and environment, social economic are quite prominent during the study period, indicating that the surplus of the relative resources carrying capacity is based on the precondition of abundant resources, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of Xinjiang. Therefore more attentions should be paid to promoting the development of Xinjiang's environmental resources, economic resources and social resources.

Key words: relative carrying capacity of resources, model modification, empirical analysis, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

F061.3

陈万旭, 李江风, 吴昆, 范昕. 新疆相对资源承载力评估模型构建及其实证分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(2): 453-461.

CHEN Wan-xu, LI Jiang-feng, WU Kun, FAN Xin. Model modification and empirical analysis of the relative carrying capacity of resources in Xinjiang[J]. , 2017, 40(2): 453-461.

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