新疆能源消费碳排放的多变量驱动因素分析——基于扩展的STIRPAT模型

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 区域层面能源消费碳排放的驱动因素研究，是有效实现碳减排的重要研究议题。以经典的IPAT模型为基础，采用扩展的STIRPAT环境压力评价模型，对1952-2014 年新疆能源消费碳排放的主要驱动因素进行时间序列分析，并定量研究各个驱动因素在改革开放之前（1952-1977 年）、改革开放之后（1978-2000 年）和西部大开发时期（2001-2014 年）三个不同发展阶段对于区域碳排放的作用机理与影响机制，主要研究结论如下：各个影响因素对新疆碳排放增长的作用机理与影响机制在三个发展阶段各不相同。改革开放之前（1952-1977 年），碳排放强度和人口规模是碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子，能源消费结构是遏制碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。改革开放之后（1978-2000 年），经济增长和人口规模是碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子，碳排放强度是遏制碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。西部大开发时期（2001-2014 年），固定资产投资和经济增长是碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子，碳排放强度是遏制碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。

关键词: 碳排放, 新疆, STIRPAT, 驱动因素

Abstract: Analysis of driving factors of energy related carbon emissions from the regional perspective is necessary and helpful for China to achieve its reduction targets. Aims of this case study are to analyze the energy related carbon emissions and to find out the most important driving factors to the carbon emissions increments in Xinjiang. Our estimates were based on the national and provincial statistics, including population(population size and population structure), economy(gross domestic product, industrial structure, fixed assets investment, and import-export trades), and energy(total energy consumption and energy consumption structure)from 1952 to 2014. Population and economic data were collected from the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook(1990-2015)and Xinjiang Fifty Years(1955-2005). Economic data was measured by GDP in Chinese Yuan in time series, taken in constant prices of 1952 to avoid the impact of the inflation. Energy data includes total energy consumption by fuel types were collected from Xinjiang Statistical Yearbooks(1990-2015)and Xinjiang Fifty Years(1955-2005), which were compiled by the Xinjiang Statistical Bureau. Energy related carbon emissions were calculated according to the method of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. An extended STIRPAT model based on the classical IPAT identity was used to determine the main driving factors for energy related carbon emissions in Xinjiang. In order to get the best understanding of driving factors on carbon emissions during 1952-2014, we divided the process into 3 stages, including"Before Reform and Opening up"(1952-1978), "After Reform and Opening up"(1978-2000), and"Western Development"(2000-2014). The innovation and contribution of this study compared with other references mainly lie in the following two aspects. Firstly, influencing factors affecting carbon emissions are more complex than the relevant carbon emissions research conducted in Xinjiang. Secondly, research on different region also with comparative analysis of different development stages may have different conclusions. Research results show that the impacts and influences of various factors on carbon emissions are different in the three different development stages. Before the Reform and Opening up(1952-1977), carbon intensity and population size are the two dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments, while energy consumption structure is the important influencing factor in curbing carbon emissions. After the Reform and Opening up(1978-2000), economic growth and population size are the two dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments, while technological progress plays an important negative effect on carbon emissions. During the Western Development(2001-2014), fixed assets investment and economic growth are the two dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments, while carbon intensity plays an important negative effect on carbon emissions. Solving these problems effectively will be of great help for Xinjiang to harmonize economic growth and carbon emissions reduction, even environmental damage reduction.

Key words: carbon emissions, Xinjiang, STIRPAT model, driving factors

中图分类号:

X196

汪菲, 王长建. 新疆能源消费碳排放的多变量驱动因素分析——基于扩展的STIRPAT模型[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(2): 441-452.

WANG Fei, WANG Chang-jian. Examining the driving factors of energy related carbon emissions using the extended STIRPAT model based on IPAT identity in Xinjiang[J]. , 2017, 40(2): 441-452.

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