辽宁省夏季降水量和极端雨量日时空变化特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据辽宁省23个气象站点1960-2014年的逐日降水量资料，运用线性倾向估计、滑动平均、累积距平、小波分析以及普通克里金空间插值等方法对辽宁省夏季降水量和极端雨量日进行时空变化分析。结果表明：55a来辽宁省夏季降水量整体呈现下降趋势，但降水强度正逐年增大，1984年、1992年和2010年降水趋势回升明显，夏季降水量的变化存在38a左右的主周期和22a左右的次周期。空间分布表现为由辽东南向辽西北逐渐减少；持续干旱天数呈现出显著的增大趋势，大雨日呈现不明显的减少趋势，暴雨和大暴雨日都有不明显的增大趋势。极端雨量日4项指标周期变化具有一致性特征，都在35~40a的时间尺度上存在明显的周期变化。大雨、暴雨、大暴雨在空间分布上具有一致性特征，极端雨量日4项指标的变化倾向率在东北西南方向都存在不同程度的条带性高低交替变化的特征。

关键词: 夏季降水量, 极端雨量日, 时空变化, 辽宁省

Abstract: The abnormal changes of summer precipitation tend to produce severe floods and droughts, so grasping the variation characteristics of summer precipitation is particularly important. It will be useful for avoiding disasters of flood and drought. In this paper, based on the daily precipitation during the period 1960-2014 at 23 meteorological stations of Liaoning Province, the summer precipitation and extreme daily rainfall variations and tendencies were analyzed by using the linear trend, moving average and cumulative departure curve analysis methods. Then using wavelet analysis method to analyze the period, and finally using ordinary Kriging interpolation method to analyze the spatial variation of summer precipitation and extreme daily rainfall. The results show that the main period of summer precipitation in Liaoning Province during the 55 years was about 38 years, and the sub period was 22 years. Although the overall trend was declining, the intensity of precipitation was increasing year by year; precipitation trends in 1984, 1992 and 2010 rose significantly. Summer precipitation reduced gradually from the Southeast to the Northwest, and the duration of dry days showed a significant increasing trend. Rain days showed no obvious decrease trend, and there was no obvious increase in the days of heavy rain and rainstorm. The periodic variation of extreme rainfall has the same characteristics, and there were obvious periodic changes of the four indicators of extreme rainfall days at the time scale of 35-40. Heavy rain, rainstorm, heavy rainstorm had the same characteristics of spatial distribution. The change rate of the four indicators of extreme rainfall days had the same banding distribution along the northeast to southwest. The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of climate and effective prevention of flood and drought disasters.

Key words: summer precipitation, extreme rainfall days, spatio-temporal variation, Liaoning Province

中图分类号:

P426.61

曹永强, 张亮亮, 王学凤, 高璐. 辽宁省夏季降水量和极端雨量日时空变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(2): 266-275.

CAO Yong-qiang, ZHANG Liang-liang, WANG Xue-feng, GAO Lu. Characteristics of spatio-temporal variation of summer precipitation and extreme rainfall days in Liaoning Province in recent 54 years[J]. , 2017, 40(2): 266-275.

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