甘肃省产业转型升级测度及其经济效应

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 综合应用产业结构超前系数、Lilien指数、More值以及结构偏离度等指标，以2004-2014年的相关统计数据为基础，对甘肃省产业转型升级方向、速度及产业结构高级化进行测度的基础上，运用shift-share模型将产业结构变化从要素生产率中分解出来，衡量了产业转型升级的经济增长效应。结果表明：（1）甘肃省第一产业比重不断下降，第二、三产业比重不断上升，产业结构已稳步实现以第二产业为主导的“二、三、一”产业演变格局。（2）2004-2014年，三次产业结构超前系数分别为-1.379、1.115和1.901，第一产业发展滞后，二、三产业发展较快，且不同时段发展速度各不相同。（3）甘肃省产业整体以0.087 1的Lilien值和4.364 6的向量夹角升级，转型升级的速度较快但趋缓态势显著。2010年以来产业结构呈现出明显的“服务经济化”趋势。（4）产业转型升级的经济效应主要源于产业内技术进步，结构效应较低，但对经济增长的贡献不可小觑。尤其是第三产业，其总结构效应为9.021 3%，第三产业转型升级对经济增长具有显著的正向贡献；第二产业结构变迁效应为负，主要在于就业结构与产业结构的不匹配。劳动力要素的优化配置对生产率的增长还有很大的提升空间，产业结构调整的空间依旧巨大。

关键词: 产业转型升级, shift-share模型, 经济效应, 甘肃省

Abstract: Based on the statistical data from 2004 to 2014, this paper made a quantitative analysis of the direction, speed and optimization of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province by using indices including the lead coefficient of industrial structure, Lilien index, More structural change and deviation coefficient of employment structure. Then the Shift-share model was used to decompose the change of industrial structure from the factor productivity to measure the economic growth effect of industrial transformation and upgrading. The results show as follows:(1) The main features of evolution of industrial structure in Gansu Province were that the primary industry kept a steady decrease trend in proportion, while the secondary industry and the tertiary industry kept an obvious increase trend in proportion. The "second-tertiary-primary" industrial evolution pattern dominated by the secondary industry had been steadily achieved.(2) During the period 2004-2014, the lead coefficients of industrial structure for primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry were -1.379, 1.115 and 1.901, respectively, indicating that the primary industry had always been lagging behind, while the secondary and tertiary industries had faster development. In addition, each industry developed at different speeds at different stages.(3) Gansu Province experienced a rapid industrial transformation and upgrading from 2004 to 2014, with the Lilien index being 0.087 1 and Vector angle being 4.364 6, but there was a significant slowdown in the speed of transformation and upgrading. The trend of service oriented economic development became more and more evident since 2010.(4) In the last ten years, the economic effect of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province was mainly resulted from the technological progress of the industry(The internal growth effect of industry). Structure effect had less contribution to economic growth, but would play an important role in the economic growth in the future. Especially for the tertiary industry, the total structure effect was 9.0213%, which meant transformation and upgrading of tertiary industries had increment effects on economic growth. However, the structure effect of second industry was negative due to the deviation of industrial structure of employment, indicating that the employment structure lagged behind the industrial structure. There was still a huge room for improving the productivity through the optimal allocation of labor factor, as well as the structural optimization of industries in the future. By decomposing the contribution of industrial transformation and upgrading to economic growth, this study helps take an insight into the relationship between industrial transformation and upgrading and economic growth, and finds out the key driving force for economic growth and the direction for industrial restructure in Gansu Province.

Key words: industrial transformation and upgrading, Shift-share model, economic effect, Gansu Province

中图分类号:

F269.24

陈强强, 邴芳, 窦学诚, 刘瑾雯. 甘肃省产业转型升级测度及其经济效应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(6): 1365-1372.

CHEN Qiang-qiang, BING Fang, DOU Xue-cheng, LIU Jin-wen. Measurement and economic effects of industrial transformation and upgrading in Gansu Province[J]. , 2016, 39(6): 1365-1372.

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