新疆农业气象灾害成因及其风险分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于新疆54个气象站点以及1949-2014年气象灾害数据，分析了新疆过去半个多世纪气象灾害的发生特点及成因。运用信息扩散方法对新疆洪水、干旱、大风、冰雹等灾害进行了风险评估，结果显示：（1）新疆降水量的增长是降雨频率和降雨强度共同增加的结果，这是导致暴雨洪水增加的重要原因；在灾害损失方面，洪水、干旱、风雹、低温等4种灾害的受灾面积均存在显著增长趋势，在空间分布上，天山北坡、伊犁河谷的洪水灾害频次最高，北疆旱灾频次多于南疆，东疆、南疆风灾较多，西天山、伊犁河谷、天山南坡西段冰雹较多。（2）在灾害风险方面，旱灾是新疆受灾风险最大的灾害，其次是洪水、大风，而冰雹风险最大的区域位于天山南坡以西以及天山北坡的中部到西部。（3）Morlet小波分析显示，自2000年以来，各灾害10 a左右的周期振荡都有增强趋势。极端气候事件的频率增加和强度加大，对近期旱灾加重和农田受灾面积增加具有一定作用。此外，通过与环流因子的遥相关分析，得到北半球极涡面积指数（VPA）和青藏高原高压指数（XZH）对新疆的气象灾害发生强度有显著影响。

关键词: 气候极值, 信息扩散方法, 气象灾害评估, 新疆

Abstract: In this paper, the meteorological disaster characteristics and the causes of disaster development in Xinjiang in the past half-century were analyzed with data of 54 weather stations and the meteorological disasters in 1949-2014. The information diffusion method was used to disasters risk assessment for flood, drought, wind, and hail. The results showed that the growth of precipitation is the result of the jointly increasing of rainfall frequency and intensity in Xinjiang, which is the important reason for storm flood increasing. There is significant increasing trend for the affected area of four kinds of disasters as floods, drought, hail, and low temperature. Spatially, the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and the Ili River Valley have high flood frequency. High frequency droughts occurred more in northern Xinjiang than that in southern Xinjiang. Eastern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang have more windstorms, and region of West Tianshan Mountains, Ili River Valley, and the western part of the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains have more hail. The risk of drought is the greatest of disasters in Xinjiang, followed by floods and windstorms. The regions with the largest risk degree of hail are mainly in the west of the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains and form the middle and the west of the north slope of Tianshan Mountains. Morlet wavelet analysis results show that since 2000, the 10-years periodic oscillations of all disasters showed increasing trends. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events impacted relatively on recent drought worsening and the affected farmland area increasing. In addition, the results of circulation factor teleconnection analysis show that northern hemisphere polar vortex area index(VPA) and the Tibetan Plateau High Index(XZH) have significant impact on intensity of meteorological disasters in Xinjiang.

Key words: climate extremes, information diffusion method, meteorological disaster assessment, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

P429

吴美华, 王怀军, 孙桂丽, 徐长春. 新疆农业气象灾害成因及其风险分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(6): 1212-1220.

WU Mei-hua, WANG Huai-jun, SUN Gui-li, XU Chang-chun. Formation and risk analysis of meteorological disasters in Xinjiang[J]. , 2016, 39(6): 1212-1220.

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