产业结构变迁的要素效应与甘肃工业转型升级

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于要素重置和产业结构变迁的结构分析方法有助于揭示工业发展的根本动力和原因。依据2000-2013年甘肃及全国工业分行业面板数据,通过构造工业结构变化度、结构变化的资本集约度等指标考察甘肃工业结构的变动趋向;利用改进的Wurgler模型测算样本期内甘肃工业要素重置效率,考察工业结构调整的效率特征;分析结构调整的动力因素并探讨甘肃工业的转型升级路径。实证研究表明,在样本期内,甘肃大力发展资源、重化工等区域特色工业,产业资本不断深化,要素集聚能力不断加强,但这种规模导向的要素配置和工业结构调整在整体上呈现出"结构负利"特征,生产要素向高生产率部门的流动缺乏效率,技术密集型产业发展比较落后。据此,提出提高要素配置效率、整合优势产业资源和提高工业技术化程度等政策建议。

关键词: 甘肃, 工业结构, 要素重置效率, 结构红利假说, 转型升级

Abstract: The structure analysis method based on factors reallocation and industrial structure change helps to reveal the fundamental driving force and reasons for industrial development. Based on the cross-industry panel data of Gansu Province and China, this paper investigated the changing tendency of industrial structure in Gansu by calculating the structural changing scale and its capital-intensity. Besides, this paper tested and calculated the reallocation efficiency of labor and capital factors among industries by using the improved "Wurgler" model which could measure the sensitivity of the flow of production factors to total factor productivity. Finally, this paper analyzed a reliable path of industrial transition to upgrade in Gansu Province. Results show that from 2000 to 2013, industrial structure in China was adjusted from capital-intensive industries to labor-intensive industries, especially in some technology-intensive industries such as electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing and electrical machinery manufacturing. But at the same time, the capital intensive tendency of Gansu industry was strengthened, labor factors flowed into the mineral resources and heavy chemical industry, such as coal mining, oil exploration, chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing. Gansu's regional special industry obtained a very good development, the aggregate capital stock per worker in industry constantly increased, and the agglomeration ability of factors was also continuously strengthened; but the scale-orientated factors allocation and industrial structure change had a negative effect on the productivity growth of the whole industry, the flow of factors to high productivity sectors was short of efficiency, some departments which lack of efficiency took up a lot of production resources, which in turn reduced the reallocation efficiency of production factors. Besides, the development of technology-intensive industries was unsatisfied, labor and capital factors flowed outward, and the scale of emerging industry has not yet been developed. On these grounds, suggestions are given as follows:firstly, the process of China's industrialization and factors reallocation showed the scale-orientated characteristics, and large-scale and state-owned enterprises obtained a more favorable environment for development. Therefore, to further adjust and optimize the industrial structure, the government should weaken its authority to allocate production resources and establish a multi-level capital market, so as to improve the efficiency of factors reallocation. Secondly, the paper have shown that Gansu's pillar industries had a good performance in production efficiency, then it is necessary to take advantage of this competitive industries and expand its industrial chain helps to improve the competitiveness of the traditional industry. Thirdly, some new technologies such as intelligent manufacturing and the internet of things was quietly changing industrial production process and way of development, industrial development strategy should timely adjust the direction and focus, increase investment in higher education and scientific research and develop the industrial technology degree.

Key words: Gansu Province, industrial structure, factors reallocation, the structural-bonus hypothesis, transformation and upgrading

中图分类号:

F269.24

李磊, 王久梗, 王培安. 产业结构变迁的要素效应与甘肃工业转型升级[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(3): 671-677.

LI Lei, WANG Jiu-geng, WANG Pei'an. Factor effects on structural change and transformation and industry upgrading of Gansu Province[J]. , 2016, 39(3): 671-677.

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