基于LMDI方法的新疆生产用水变化分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用LMDI-I 分解分析方法,探讨了新疆2000-2013 年各产业生产用水的经济水平效应(g-effect)、人口效应(p-effect)和用水效率效应(f-effect)的时空特征.结果表明:时间尺度上,g-effect和p-effect对新疆生产用水的变化整体呈现增加效应,平均效应分别为20.93×10⁸m³·a^-1和6.79×10⁸m³·a^-1;而f-effect在3个产业的大部分时段表现为减少效应,平均效应为-10.45×10⁸m³·a^-1.对不同产业而言,伊犁、阿克苏和喀什等地区对新疆第一产业用水量变化各效应贡献最大;在第二产业中,大部分地区的f-effect表现为减少效应,天山北坡经济带的g-effect和乌鲁木齐、伊犁等地区的p-effect增加;第三产业中,乌鲁木齐、昌吉州和伊犁的f-effect减少,g-effect和p-effect增加.建议在天山北坡经济带构建城市多极多中心的发展格局,通过平衡经济发展来减少水资源压力;根据水资源承载力和社会经济发展需求,确定各地区最适宜人口数量范围;在继续加强伊犁、阿克苏和喀什地区节水农业发展的同时,要十分注意其他地区的节水农业发展;在西部的伊犁、喀什和阿克苏等主要旅游地区制定第三产业的长期发展计划,实现其持续稳定发展.

关键词: 生产用水变化, LMDI-I分解分析, 时空变化, 新疆

Abstract: Studying the driving effects of industrial water use change and its temporal and spatial variation is of great importance for taking an insight into the developing mechanism of water use,finding the existing problems, and making reasonable allocation of water resources in Xinjiang. Based on the population data,industrial water use data and GDP data obtained from "Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook(2001-2014)" and "Xinjiang Water Resources Bulletin(2000-2013)"this paper discussed the contributions of three driving effects including economic level effect(g-effect),population effect(p-effect)and water use efficiency effect(f-effect)to industrial water use change of Xinjiang from 2000 to 2013 by using LMDI-I Decomposition Analysis. Results show that:the intensifying water exploitation and utilization situation in Xinjiang is the consequence of g-effect,p-effect and f-effect,with g-effect and p-effect show increase effect of 20.93×10⁸m³·a^-1and 6.79×10⁸m³·a^-1,f-effect show decrease effect of-10.45×10⁸m³·a^-1. For different sectors,Counties Direct under Ili Prefecture,Aksu,Hotan and Kashgar contribute most to all the three driving effects in primary industry,the economic level development and population expansion are the main factors for water use increase of primary industry. In secondary industry,f-effect showed decrease effect in most states,while g-effect in the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains Economic Zone and p-effect in Urumqi,Ili,et al. show dominant increase effect. The economic level development and population expansion are the main factors for water use increase of secondary industry. In tertiary industry,f-effect shows dominant decrease effect,while g-effect and p-effect show increase effects mainly in Urumqi,Changji and Ili,et al. The interaction of three driving effects is the reason for water use fluctuation of tertiary industry. According to the study results,we suggest Xinjiang building a multi-polar and multi-center development pattern along the economy belt in the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains,releasing the pressure of water resources and population through balancing the economic development;determining the most appropriate population range according to the water resources capacity and demand of social-economic development in each prefectures;emphasizing the water-saving agriculture in other regions of Xinjiang while developing the water-saving agriculture in Ili,Aksu and Kashgar;making and perfecting a longtime developing plan for tertiary industry development in western tourism prefectures such as Ili,Kashgar and Aksu,so as to realizing its sustainable and stable development. This paper first take the population factor into consideration for industrial water use change,and explore the driving effects for industrial water use change individually,leading to a more objective and clearer understanding of the influencing mechanism of driving effects on industrial water use change.

Key words: industrial water use change, LMDI-I decomposition analysis, spatial and temporal analysis, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

P968

杨雅雪, 杨井, 许玉凤, 赵旭. 基于LMDI方法的新疆生产用水变化分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(1): 67-76.

YANG Ya-xue, YANG Jing, XU Yu-feng, ZHAO Xu. Industrial water use change in Xinjiang based on LMDI method[J]. , 2016, 39(1): 67-76.

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