关键词: 西部地区, 农村劳动力, 农地流转意愿, 影响因素, 结构方程模型

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explore the western region of rural labor transfer on farmland transfer willingness of farmers and their impact strength. Existing literature mainly based on statistical analysis of logistic and probit model，and the farmers who intend to some latent variables should be included in the influence factors of farmland circulation. It is not easy to observe such latent variables directly，but we could use some explicit indexes to do indirect measurement. Logistic and probit model cannot properly handle this kind of latent variables，but structural equation model （SEM） can be used to handle latent variables and their parameter values at the same time，e.g. in January 2013，we carried out an household survey of 369 farmer households at Manas County in the Economic Belt on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains，Xinjiang，China，based on the perspective of rural labor transfer，using structural equation model （SEM），a method about the influencing factors of the will of farmers land circulation empirical analysis. The results show that labor transfer characteristics has significantly positive influence on the willingness of farmland transfer. Every increase on unit labor transfer characteristics of assignment，farmers’ willingness to farmland transfer will increase 0.621 units. In the three observable variables that reflects the transfer of labor force characteristics，we found that each additional assignment family migrant labor，migrant workers number location and industry of one unit may lead to the probability of farmland transfer increase 0.795，0.477 and 0.460 units respectively. On the basis of empirical analysis，the paper proposed some suggestions：to strengthen the skills training for farmers，to achieve the optimal allocation and transfer reasonable of labor force to improve the regional rural labor market，to increase the rural infrastructure especially on reservoir irrigation infrastructure investment，to enhance the prevention of planting industry management risk and cultivate different kinds of intermediary service organization of farmland transfer and so on. As the study area mentioned in this paper is located in the western region，compared with the central and eastern regions in China，the farmland resources of western region，usually with a large amount of poor quality，less land resource allocation，low productivity，imbalance and backup resources development and utilization of water and soil resources potential great difficulty，which to a certain extent，slows the progress of farmland transfer in the region. In the western region，the farmers' income relies on farming income proportion more than that in the central and eastern area. Farmland for western region farmers，its social security function is also obvious，to a large extent，farmers cognition of agricultural management risk is affected by the willingness of farmland transfer，especially for more influence to intend. The migrant rural labor force to work site and the choice of rural industry，farmers risk cognition to plantation management and land quality condition （using the proportion of water saving irrigation），all of which considered as an observable variable to explore the influence on the will of farmland transfer，have certain innovation when compared with the similar research before. In view of above all，the research conclusion of this paper is not only suitable for Manas County，but also can be used to other areas of similar features.

Key words: the western China, rural labor force, willingness of farmland transfer, influencing factors, structural equation model