关键词: 新疆, 产业结构演进, 偏离-份额分析法

Abstract: Based on the statistical data from 1952 to 2008 and by using such indices as the entropy status of the regional industrial structure，similarity index in industrial structure，deviation degree and deviation factor of industrial structure of employment，conversion speed coefficient of the industrial structure and directional coefficient，coefficient of the comparative labor productivity and the different index，this paper makes a quantitative analysis on dynamic evolution characteristics，such as the overall features of Xinjiang Province’s industrial structure evolution，evolution stages industrial structure of employment，conversion speed of the industrial structure and its shiftshare since 1952，with the method of shiftshare analysis．The results are as follows：Xinjiang’s industrial structure evolution can generally be divided into four phases(1952-1957，1958-1977，1978-1991，1992-2008)．Xinjiang’s industrial structure has entered a lowlevel and orderly state after three times industrial structure evolution．Compared with national industrial structure，there are a lot of similarities in Xinjiang[JP10]’[JP]s industrial structure，but similarities were increased(from 0.94 in 1953 to 0.99 in 2004-2008)．In addition，it finds that there have been some difierences in evolution of industrial structure between Xinjiang and the whole nation since 1952．The main features are as follows：Firstly，the primary industry proportion of Xinjiang was declining,，the secondary industry proportion and the tertiary industry proportion of Xinjiang was obviously increasing,the secondary industry is the leading industry．Secondly，imbalance between the proportions of output value and employment in Xinjiang was evidently high，which has enlarged in the recent years．And there is a striking dual structure between towns and countries in Xinjiang，and the industrial structure and employment structure is characterized by “two，three，one”and“one，three，two”features．Thirdly，its conversion speed of the industrial structure was fast and then slow，such changes were mainly dependent on the promotion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry，which was reasonable．Fourthly，the labor productivity and economic efficiency of the primary industry is very low，the secondary industry have some advantages，the tertiary industry can not improve employment，the industrial development was unbalanced and the efficiency of the industrial structure was declining．Lastly，the effects of its economic growth structure have been increasing，but sunset industry took a high proportion in economic growth．Fortunately，its competitiveness of comparative advantage industry has been enhanced a lot．Great efforts should be made to improve the optimization and fully develop the secondary industry，So that it can promote the development of the primary industry and tertiary industry，which should be the future direction of industrial restructure of Xinjiang Province．

Key words: Xinjiang, industrial structure evolution, shiftshare method