陕北黄土高原红枣种植区水热资源变化及未来趋势预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.01.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了揭示陕北黄土高原红枣种植区水热资源变化特征,给当地红枣产业适应气候变化提供科学依据,利用陕北黄土高原红枣种植区8个气象站1971—2019年的气温、降水资料,及中等（RCP4.5）和高等（RCP8.5）排放气候情景下2021—2050年的气候变化预估数据,采用线性倾向估计、M-K检验、Morlet小波分析方法对气温、降水变化特征进行分析。结果显示：近49 a,红枣种植区年和生长季平均气温呈显著上升趋势,分别在1991年和1993年发生突变,存在44 a的周期变化。年和生长季降水量呈不显著增加趋势,存在31 a左右的周期变化,未发生突变。2021—2050年,RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种情景模式下,年和生长季平均气温呈上升趋势,RCP8.5排放情景下升温更显著,年平均气温在2027年发生了突变。两种排放情景下,年和生长季平均气温存在31 a左右的周期变化。年和生长季降水量在RCP4.5排放情景下呈不显著减少趋势,在RCP8.5排放情景下呈不显著增加趋势;降水量没有发生突变现象。RCP4.5情景下,年和生长季降水存在23~31 a周期变化;RCP8.5情景下存在7 a的变化周期。陕北红枣种植区应积极适应气候变化,调整种植布局,选择适宜的红枣品种,促进陕北红枣产业可持续健康发展。

关键词: 气候情景, 变化趋势, 生长季, 陕北黄土高原

Abstract:

To reveal the change characteristics of water and heat resources in the jujube planting area of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi and to provide a scientific basis for the local jujube industry to adapt to climate change, on the basis of the temperature and precipitation data from eight weather stations from 1971 to 2019 in the jujube cultivation area of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario data from 2021 to 2050, the climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation were analyzed using methods of linear trend estimates, the M-K test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that the annual average temperature and average temperature of the jujube growth season showed a significantly increasing trend from 1971 to 2019 and emerging abrupt changes in 1991 and 1993, respectively. The monthly average temperature showed an increasing trend. The annual average temperature and average temperature of the jujube growth season displayed a quasi-periodic of 44 a. The annual precipitation and precipitation during the jujube growth season also showed an insignificantly increasing trend and did not reveal abrupt changes and significant fluctuations over the period of 31 a. The annual average temperature and average temperature of the jujube growth season showed an increasing trend under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios from 2021 to 2050. The temperature had a change cycle of 31 a. The annual precipitation and precipitation of the jujube growth season showed a decreasing trend under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and an increasing trend under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The precipitation did not reveal abrupt changes. The annual precipitation and precipitation during the jujube growth season had a change cycle of 23-31 a under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and had a change cycle of 7 a under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. With the increase of heat resources in the red jujube planting area in northern Shaanxi, the suitable planting area for jujube may expand northward. The phenological period of the red jujube will change. An elevated temperature is conducive to the safe overwintering of pests and diseases. Precipitation may show an increasing trend that can alleviate the drought problem, but increased precipitation in the mature period will also lead to an increased risk of the jujube fruit cracking. There is a need to fully tap the potential of climate resources, properly adjust the layout and scale of the jujube industry, and select jujube varieties with a strong resistance to fruit cracking to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the northern Shaanxi jujube industry.

Key words: future climate scenario, change trend, growth season, the Loess Plateau of the northern Shaanxi

张维敏,王景红,刘璐,张勇. 陕北黄土高原红枣种植区水热资源变化及未来趋势预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(1): 73-79.

ZHANG Weimin,WANG Jinghong,LIU Lu,ZHANG Yong. Change and trend prediction of water and heat resource of jujube planting zones in the hilly area of the Loess Plateau in the northern Shaanxi[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 73-79.

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时段	平均温度 /℃	气候倾向率/ ℃·(10a)^-1	降水量 /mm	气候倾向率/ mm·(10a)^-1
全年	10.20	0.22^***	460.50	14.73
生长季	18.40	0.13^*	424.10	15.02
1月	-6.70	0.16	3.20	-0.07
2月	-2.30	0.49^**	5.40	-0.03
3月	4.80	0.56^***	11.90	-0.86
4月	12.70	0.34^**	22.50	1.60
5月	18.70	0.04	33.80	2.25
6月	22.90	0.10	54.30	-0.89
7月	24.50	0.16	111.00	7.17
8月	22.60	0.02	103.20	-1.04
9月	17.10	0.15	68.30	3.40
10月	10.40	0.10	30.90	2.39
11月	2.30	0.16	12.80	1.00
12月	-4.90	0.24	3.00	-0.55