华北一作区马铃薯生长发育及产量对干旱胁迫响应的模拟研究——以武川县为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.350

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究不同程度干旱胁迫对华北一作区马铃薯生长发育及产量的影响,以内蒙古呼和浩特市武川县为例,基于多年马铃薯生长发育资料和气象资料,对APSIM-Potato模型进行调参与验证,评价模型在武川地区的适用性。利用验证后的模型模拟马铃薯叶面积指数（LAI）、地上部生物量和产量对不同发育阶段干旱胁迫的响应。结果表明：（1）各发育阶段天数的模拟值与实测值的均方根误差（RMSE）均在3 d内;LAI、地上部生物量和产量的模拟值与实测值的归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）分别为12.82%、17.35%和14.48%,均低于20%,表明APSIM-Potato模型在武川地区具有较好的适用性。（2）随着干旱胁迫时间和强度的增加,马铃薯LAI、地上部生物量和产量随之减小。模拟单一发育阶段干旱胁迫时,马铃薯LAI、地上部生物量和产量对分枝-开花期水分胁迫的响应最大;模拟连续发育阶段干旱胁迫时,LAI、地上部生物量和产量对全生育期水分胁迫的响应最大。

关键词: 马铃薯, APSIM-Potato模型, 适用性评价, 干旱模拟, 叶面积指数, 生物量, 产量

Abstract:

The single-cropping region in northern China is the major potato-producing areas and a typical semiarid dryland agricultural location in China. Recently, due to the intensification of climate change, annual precipitation in this area has decreased, and the frequency and intensity of drought have increased significantly, which has greatly affected the growth and production of local potatoes. Therefore, to explore the effects of various degrees of drought stress on the growth and yield of potato in the single-cropping region in northern China, this study was conducted on the basis of years of potato growth and meteorological data to verify the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Potato) model and evaluate the applicability of the APSIM-Potato model in Wuchuan County, Inner Mongolia, China. The validated model was used to analyze the response of potato leaf area index (LAI), above-ground biomass, and yield to drought scenarios at different developmental stages. (1) The results show that the APSIM-Potato model is superior simulating potatoes growth and yield formation in Wuchuan over time. The root mean square error of the calculated and measured values at each development stage was within 3 days; the normalized root mean square error of the calculated and measured values of LAI, above-ground biomass and yield was less than 20%, and the coefficient of determination (R²) and consistency index (D index) were both greater than 0.85. It could be demonstrated that the calculation accuracy of the model was relatively high, and the APSIM-Potato model had applicability in the study region. (2) With the increase of drought stress time and intensity, the LAI, above-ground biomass, and yield would decrease. When calculating drought at a single developmental stage, the LAI, above-ground biomass, and yield were the most responsive to water stress in the branch-flowering stage. Compared with CK, the LAI, above-ground biomass, and yield of potato were respectively reduced by 3%-33%, 17%-35%, and 2%-25%; When calculating drought during continuous development, the LAI, above-ground biomass, and yield were the most responsive to water stress during the whole growth period. Compared with CK, the LAI, above-ground biomass and yield were reduced by 10%-57%, 29%-69%, and 55%-75%, and the time for its LAI and above-ground biomass to reach the maximum value also increased by 10-17 d and 13-18 d. The recent study results had laid a theoretical foundation for analyzing the applicability of the APSIM-Potato model in the single-cropping region in northern China and for in-depth study of the impact of drought on potato in the single-cropping region in northern China under the background of climate warming.

Key words: potato, APSIM-Potato model, applicability evaluation, drought simulation, leaf area index (LAI), biomass, yield

罗新兰,孙悦,刘利民,王立为,杨丽桃,高西宁. 华北一作区马铃薯生长发育及产量对干旱胁迫响应的模拟研究——以武川县为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 867-878.

LUO Xinlan,SUN Yue,LIU Limin,WANG Liwei,YANG Litao,GAO Xining. Simulation of response of potato growth and yield to drought stress in the single-cropping region in northern China: A case of Wuchuan County[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 867-878.

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土层/cm	土壤pH值	容重/g·cm^-3	田间持水量/mm·mm^-1	饱和含水量/mm·mm^-1	有效磷/mg·kg^-1	有效钾/mg·kg^-1	有机质/%
0~20	8.24	1.48	0.38	0.43	13.37	159.84	2.08
20~40	8.28	1.36	0.34	0.39	3.54	130.31	5.06
40~60	8.41	1.40	0.32	0.37	2.57	70.78	1.41
60~80	8.60	1.45	0.32	0.36	1.58	66.90	0.67
80~100	8.45	1.45	0.28	0.34	1.86	98.50	0.48

干旱情景	降水量
干旱情景	全生育期	播种-出苗期	出苗-分枝期	分枝-开花期	开花-可收期
CK	340	65.95	60.28	74.02	167.44
T₁	280	52.76	48.23	59.21	133.95
T₂	220	42.21	38.58	47.37	107.16
T₃	160	33.77	30.86	37.90	85.73
T₄	100	27.01	24.69	30.32	68.58