我国人均水资源量分布的俱乐部趋同研究——基于扩展的马尔科夫链模型

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.24

干旱区地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 867-873.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.24

我国人均水资源量分布的俱乐部趋同研究——基于扩展的马尔科夫链模型

周迪¹, 周丰年², 钟绍军³

1. 广东外语外贸大学经贸学院, 广东广州 510006;
2. 长江水利委员会长江口水文水资源勘测局, 上海 200136;
3. 湖北科技学院数学与统计学院, 湖北咸宁 437100

收稿日期:2018-02-04 修回日期:2018-05-27 出版日期:2018-07-25
通讯作者: 周丰年.E-mail:cjkfnzhou@126.com
作者简介:周迪,男,湖北鄂州人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为区域经济、区域资源配置.E-mail:zhoudi19880101@163.com
基金资助:
国家统计局全国统计科学研究项目（2017LY55）；广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划项目（GD17YYJ03）

“Club convergence” of per capita water resource distribution in China: Based on extended Markov chain model

ZHOU Di¹, ZHOU Feng-nian², ZHONG Shao-jun³

1. School of International Trade & Economics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China;
2. Changjiang River Estuary Bureau of Hydrological and Water Resources Survey, Changjiang River Estuary Water Environment Monitoring Center, Shanghai 200136, China;
3. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100, Hubei, China

Received:2018-02-04 Revised:2018-05-27 Online:2018-07-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究区域水资源不平衡背后的“俱乐部趋同”现象，对于水资源调节以及水资源均衡配置具有重要的理论和实践意义。基于2004—2015年我国31个省（市、区）的人均水资源数据，利用扩展的马尔科夫链模型检测了不同时长下我国省际水资源量分布的俱乐部趋同现象，并分析了其时间特征。结果表明：即使在5 a的时间积累下，我国人均水资源量仍存在着明显的俱乐部趋同现象，高水平和低水平地区水资源量分布高度固化，且俱乐部趋同程度在2008年开始向恶化的趋势发展，可见当前我国区域水资源调节力度有待进一步加强。最后论文根据各地区人均水资源在考察期各年所属俱乐部类型、类型转移频率等因素对各地区进行了分类，以对区域水资源调节提供支持和参考。

关键词: 水资源, 俱乐部趋同, 马尔科夫链模型, 水资源调节

Abstract: Studying the phenomenon of "club convergence" behind the imbalance of regional water resources is of great theoretical and practical significance to the regulation and balanced allocation of water resources.This paper examines the "club convergence" of the distribution of interprovincial water resources in China in different time span,then analyzes its temporal characteristics using extended Markov chain model based on the per capita water resource data of 31 provinces (including municipalities directly under the central government,Autonomous Regions) in China from 2004 to 2015.The results show that there is an obvious phenomenon of "club convergence" for per capita water resources in China even after 5 years as the distribution was highly solidified in high and low areas, and the trend of "club convergence" began to grow in the direction of deterioration since 2008.Therefore,the coordination of regional water resources needs to be further strengthened.Finally,the paper classifies the regions according to the club type and transfer frequency of per capita water resources in each region during the period of investigation so as to provide support and reference for regional water resources regulation.

Key words: water resources, club convergence, Markov chain model, water resources regulation

中图分类号:

F062.1

周迪, 周丰年, 钟绍军. 我国人均水资源量分布的俱乐部趋同研究——基于扩展的马尔科夫链模型[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 867-873.

ZHOU Di, ZHOU Feng-nian, ZHONG Shao-jun. “Club convergence” of per capita water resource distribution in China: Based on extended Markov chain model[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 867-873.

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