塔里木河流域生态系统碳储量的情景预测分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.274

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用方式是引起陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素，对维持碳储量水平稳定有着关键作用。通过利用耦合的PLUS-InVEST模型评估与预测塔里木河流域1980—2020年土地利用与碳储量变化情况，设置自然发展、生态保护、耕地保护和城镇发展4种场景，分情景预测2030年研究区土地利用及碳储量的变化趋势，在此基础上探究土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。结果表明：（1） 40 a间塔里木河流域耕地、建设用地与未利用地面积显著增加，林地、草地和水域面积减少。（2） 40 a间1980—2020年碳储量总体呈上升趋势，总体增加了22.66×10⁶ t，碳储量增加区域主要分布在塔里木河干流及其分支上。未利用地和草地是塔里木河流域主要的碳库，占碳储量总量的24.77%和19.37%。（3）情景预测发现2020年后碳储量流失量较大且流失速度逐渐较加快，碳储量减少区域主要分布在研究区的中西南部，未来草地向未利用地及林地向草地的转移均是碳储量流失主要原因，4种情景下分别减少了0.0475×10⁸ t、0.0051×10⁸ t、0.0285×10⁸ t及0.0473×10⁸ t。（4）耕地向林地、草地向林地、水域向草地及未利用地、未利用地向耕地及草地的转出都有利于碳储存。因此，在未来规划中，应耕地保护和生态保护相结合，在控制建设用地向外扩张的同时保证当地经济增长，提高碳储量水平，为实现“双碳”目标蓄力。

关键词: 塔里木河流域, 土地利用, 碳储量, PLUS模型, InVEST模型, 新疆

Abstract:

Land use patterns are important factors causing carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems and play a critical role in maintaining the stability of carbon stock levels. This study uses the coupled PLUS-InVEST model to assess and predict land use and carbon stock changes in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China from 1980 to 2020. Four scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, arable land protection, and urban development were established. The land use and carbon stock trends in the study area in 2030 were predicted by scenarios, and the effects of land use changes on carbon stock were investigated. The results are as follows: (1) The area of cultivated land, construction land, and unutilized land in the Tarim River Basin increased significantly during the 40-a period, whereas the area of forest land, grassland, and water decreased. (2) Carbon stock exhibited an overall upward trend from 1980 to 2020, with an overall increase of 22.66×10⁶ t. The area of carbon stock increase was mainly distributed on the main stream of the Tarim River and its branches during the 40-a period. Unutilized land and grassland are the main carbon reservoirs in the Tarim River Basin, accounting for 24.77% and 19.37% of the total carbon stock, respectively. (3) The different scenarios showed that the loss of carbon stock after 2020 was larger and the rate of loss gradually accelerated, the carbon stock reduction area was mainly distributed in the middle and southwest parts of the study area, and the transfer of grassland to unutilized land and forest land to grassland in the future was the main reason for carbon stock loss. The carbon stock loss under the four scenarios was reduced by 0.0475×10⁸ t, 0.0051×10⁸ t, 0.0285×10⁸ t and 0.0473×10⁸ t, respectively. (4) The transfer of cropland to woodland, grassland to woodland, watershed to grassland and unutilized land, and unutilized land to cropland and grassland are conducive to carbon storage. Therefore, in future planning, we should combine arable land and ecological protection, control the expansion of construction land to the outside while ensuring the growth of the local economy, increase carbon storage, and build up the strength to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Key words: Tarim River Basin, land use, carbon stock, PLUS model, InVEST model, Xinjiang

付玮, 夏文浩, 樊童生, 邹贞, 霍瑜. 塔里木河流域生态系统碳储量的情景预测分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(4): 634-647.

FU Wei, XIA Wenhao, FAN Tongsheng, ZOU Zhen, HUO Yu. Scenario projection analysis of ecosystem carbon stocks in the Tarim River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(4): 634-647.

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表9

1980—2020年土地利用变化引起碳储量变化"

转换类型	地上生物量碳储量	地下生物量碳储量	土壤碳储量	死亡有机物碳储量	总碳储量
耕地→林地	3.4991	0.7096	3.6700	0.1295	8.0082
耕地→草地	-0.4314	0.1512	-0.1791	-0.1525	-0.6118
耕地→水域	-0.0559	-0.0740	-1.7823	-0.0256	-1.9378
耕地→建设用地	-0.2093	-0.3145	-11.3690	-0.1635	-12.0563
耕地→未利用地	-0.1390	-0.1464	-2.0337	-0.0589	-2.3781
小计	2.6634	0.3259	-11.6941	-0.2709	-8.9758
林地→耕地	-6.2481	-1.2671	-6.5533	-0.2313	-14.2999
林地→草地	-19.7664	-3.1410	-19.7380	-1.2278	-43.8733
林地→水域	-0.9380	-0.2687	-3.1442	-0.0643	-4.4152
林地→建设用地	-0.2040	-0.0534	-0.7055	-0.0144	-0.9773
林地→未利用地	-5.1821	-1.4052	-11.0918	-0.3528	-18.0319
小计	-32.3386	-6.1354	-41.2329	-1.8907	-81.5975
草地→耕地	4.2023	-1.4726	1.7444	1.4849	5.9590
草地→林地	23.0356	3.6605	23.0025	1.4309	51.1295
草地→水域	0.0486	-1.2327	-22.8375	-0.0591	-24.0806
草地→建设用地	0.0426	-0.1114	-2.7890	-0.0072	-2.8650
草地→未利用地	-0.3195	-31.8215	-323.4689	-1.7094	-357.3192
小计	27.0097	-30.9777	-324.3484	1.1402	-327.1763
水域→耕地	0.1132	0.1496	3.6058	0.0519	3.9204
水域→林地	0.8038	0.2303	2.6943	0.0551	3.7834
水域→草地	-0.1306	3.3137	61.3911	0.1589	64.7330
水域→建设用地	0.0010	0.0011	0.0000	0.0000	0.0021
水域→未利用地	-0.3083	0.6851	60.2365	0.0000	60.6133
小计	0.4790	4.3797	127.9277	0.2658	133.0522
建设用地→耕地	0.1485	0.2231	8.0658	0.1160	8.5535
建设用地→林地	0.3180	0.0832	1.0998	0.0225	1.5234
建设用地→草地	-0.0081	0.0212	0.5302	0.0014	0.5447
建设用地→水域	-0.0010	-0.0010	0.0000	0.0000	-0.0020
建设用地→未利用地	-0.0038	-0.0020	0.1246	0.0000	0.1187
小计	0.4535	0.3244	9.8204	0.1399	10.7382
未利用地→耕地	1.3583	1.4308	19.8711	0.5753	23.2356
未利用地→林地	4.2485	1.1520	9.0934	0.2893	14.7832
未利用地→草地	0.2498	24.8838	252.9471	1.3367	279.4175
未利用地→水域	0.0935	-0.2078	-18.2732	0.0000	-18.3875
未利用地→建设用地	0.0784	0.0409	-2.5377	0.0000	-2.4184
小计	6.0286	27.2998	261.1008	2.2013	296.6304
总计	4.2956	-4.7832	21.5736	1.5855	22.6713

表9

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类型	名称	分辨率/m	数据来源
基础数据	土地利用数据	30	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
自然条件	土壤类型	1000	HWSD世界土壤数据库（http://westdc.westgis.ac.cn/）
	年平均气温	1000	中国气象数据网（htpp://www.nmic.cn）中国气象数据网（htpp://www.nmic.cn）
	年降水量	1000	中国气象数据网（htpp://www.nmic.cn）中国气象数据网（htpp://www.nmic.cn）
	DEM	30	地理空间数据云（http://www.gscloud.cn）
	坡度	30	对DEM进行坡度分析
社会经济	人口	1000	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
社会经济	GDP	1000
交通区位	距一级道路距离	30 30 30 30 30 30 30	OpenstreetMap（http://www.openstreetmap.org/） OpenstreetMap（http://www.openstreetmap.org/） OpenstreetMap（http://www.openstreetmap.org/） OpenstreetMap（http://www.openstreetmap.org/） OpenstreetMap（http://www.openstreetmap.org/）
	距二级道路距离
	距三级道路距离
	距高速公路距离
	距铁路距离
	距火车站距离		国家基础地理信息中心（http://www.ngcc.cn）国家基础地理信息中心（http://www.ngcc.cn）
	邻近城市驻地距离

土地利用类型	地上碳密度	地下碳密度	土壤碳密度	死亡有机物碳密度	参考文献
耕地	3.4705	4.1202	86.2150	1.24	王绮等^[31]，颜安^[33]
林地	36.9664	10.9131	121.3471	2.48	颜安^[33]
草地	0.5839	5.1317	85.0168	0.22	周圣杰^[32]，颜安^[33]
水域	0.7648	0.5428	0.0000	0.00	颜安^[33]
建设用地	1.8833	1.7352	0.0000	0.00	周圣杰^[32]，颜安^[33]
未利用地	0.5428	1.0362	43.3855	0.00	颜安^[33]

土地利用类型	1980年	1990年	2000年	2010年	2020年
耕地	24541.47	24531.84	26750.16	35998.74	42418.44
林地	12886.38	12911.49	13546.80	12912.57	12703.50
草地	254001.87	254204.28	246313.89	233091.90	227369.97
水域	36360.81	36106.74	36823.77	21688.11	21978.72
建设用地	1517.13	1555.38	1497.15	3628.89	2689.92
未利用地	565992.18	565990.11	570368.07	587979.63	588139.29

土地利用类型	1980— 1990年	1990— 2000年	2000— 2010年	2010— 2020年
耕地	-0.0039	0.9043	3.4574	1.7833
林地	0.0195	0.4921	-0.4682	-0.1619
草地	0.0080	-0.3104	-0.5368	-0.2455
水域	-0.0699	0.1986	-4.1103	0.1340
建设用地	0.2521	-0.3744	14.2387	-2.5875
未利用地	0.0000	0.0774	0.3088	0.0027

1980年	2020年							转出
1980年	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	总和	转出
耕地	20001.96	1044.63	1494.63	206.73	1318.68	474.84	24541.47	4539.51
林地	1865.34	3848.31	5432.76	259.11	58.14	1422.72	12886.38	9038.07
草地	14557.77	6331.50	152400.24	2686.14	328.05	77698.17	254001.87	101601.63
水域	418.23	222.03	7221.06	14606.46	9.00	13884.03	36360.81	21754.35
建设用地	935.55	90.63	62.37	8.73	391.14	28.71	1517.13	581.58
未利用地	4639.59	1166.40	60758.91	4211.55	584.91	494630.82	565992.18	71361.36
总和	42418.44	12703.50	227369.97	21978.72	2689.92	588139.29	895299.84	-
转入	22416.48	8855.19	74969.73	7372.26	2298.78	93508.47	-	209148.70