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Arid Land Geography >

2025 , Vol. 48 >Issue 7: 1267 - 1278

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2024.431

Regional Development

Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective

  • LUO Xiaomei ,
  • WEN Qi ,
  • SHI Linna ,
  • WU Xinyan ,
  • AN Fengping ,
  • WANG Zhenting
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  • 1. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. School of Architecture, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
    4. School of Geographical Science and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
    5. Rural Governance Center, Institute of Rural Revitalization of Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
    6. Faculty of Engineering and Geography, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
    7. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China

Received date: 2024-07-17

  Revised date: 2024-10-11

  Online published: 2025-07-04

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Abstract

This study identifies the types of county shrinkage in the agro-pastoral zone of north China from 2000 to 2020 using a shrinkage degree model and multi-index comprehensive evaluation method based on the three dimensions of population, economy, and space. Furthermore, it also explores the driving factors of county shrinkage from a spatial differentiation perspective, employing a multiscale geographically weighted regression model. The results show the following. (1) Population shrinkage is the most severe, exhibiting a growth rate of 64.15% and the widest geographic coverage; this is followed by spatial shrinkage and economic shrinkage, with growth rates of 30.19% and 7.55%, respectively. (2) In terms of spatial and temporal evolution, overall county shrinkage, along with population, economic, and spatial shrinkage in individual dimensions, is primarily concentrated in the northeast of China and Inner Mongolia, indicating a trend of “encircling from the edge to the centre”. (3) Regarding the interplay of different dimensions, county shrinkage types are gradually becoming multi-dimensional: from 2000 to 2010, only unidimensional population shrinkage was observed in the agro-pastoral zone of north China, whereas from 2010 to 2020, shrinkage types diversified, exhibiting both two- and three-dimensional shrinkage, predominantly characterized by population-space shrinkage. (4) The key driving factors influencing county shrinkage in this region include local financial expenditures, educational resources, and fixed asset investments, exhibiting significant spatial variation. Therefore, implementing zonal management is crucial for achieving sustainable county development. This study enriches research perspectives on urban shrinkage and provides scientific references and theoretical support for enhancing the vitality of counties in the agro-pastoral zone of north China, ultimately contributing to high-quality urban development.

Key words： urban shrinkage; multi-dimensional perspectives; ecological security; agro-pastoral zone; north China

Cite this article

LUO Xiaomei , WEN Qi , SHI Linna , WU Xinyan , AN Fengping , WANG Zhenting . Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025 , 48(7) : 1267 -1278 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2024.431

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