Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and development trend prediction of urban resilience of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains
Received date: 2024-07-16
Revised date: 2024-08-30
Online published: 2025-04-18
Building resilience in urban agglomerations has become a key focus in urban risk governance research. This study utilizes panel data from 15 cities in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China from 2010 to 2022. Based on the DPSR model, an urban resilience evaluation index system is constructed, encompassing four dimensions (driving force, pressure, state, and response) analyzed from a dynamic perspective. The spatial and temporal evolution of urban resilience is assessed using the entropy method and kernel density estimation. Furthermore, the primary influencing factors are identified through geographical detectors, and future development trends are predicted using a grey prediction model. The results indicate that: (1) From 2010 to 2022, the resilience of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains has significantly improved, forming a spatial pattern characterized by a “core-edge” structure. The western part of Urumqi City has emerged as a high-resilience area, whereas the periphery of the urban agglomeration exhibits lower resilience. (2) When analyzing the factors influencing urban resilience, the response system has consistently exerted a strong impact. Over time, the influence of environmental regulation and ecological pollution indicators has increased. Specifically, the total production value of large-scale industrial enterprises, carbon dioxide emissions, the number of utility model patents, the digital financial inclusion index, and general public budget expenditures have demonstrated a strong long-term effect on urban resilience in this region. (3) For the period 2023—2027, dynamic predictions suggest that the resilience of the urban agglomeration will improve significantly, with cities in the urban agglomeration exhibiting steady growth. Spatially, Urumqi City will continue to lead in resilience levels, further widening interregional disparities. Consequently, the “core-edge” spatial pattern within the region will become more pronounced. These findings provide a theoretical reference for the development planning of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and the enhancement of urban resilience, thereby strengthening cities’ ability to adapt to, recover from, and sustainably develop in response to various disturbances.
HUANG Siyuan , ZHOU Shuhang , DONG Ye . Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and development trend prediction of urban resilience of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025 , 48(4) : 559 -570 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.428
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