Evaluation and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin based on PLUS model: A case of Shaanxi section
Received date: 2023-11-18
Revised date: 2024-01-18
Online published: 2024-12-03
The long-term supply and optimization of ecosystem services are critical for sustainable social development, necessitating a precise understanding of ecosystem service trends. This study integrates multi-source data, employing the InVEST model and an ecosystem service evaluation framework to analyze these trends. A comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem services in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin, China, was conducted from 2000 to 2020. The PLUS model was subsequently used to simulate and forecast land use and ecosystem service changes for 2035. The findings reveal that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution of comprehensive ecosystem service values in the Shaanxi section exhibited a “high in the south and low in the north” pattern, with high-value areas predominantly located in the southern region. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the comprehensive ecosystem service value initially declined and then increased significantly, with high-value areas expanding from south to north. Apart from soil conservation services, the values of other ecosystem services improved to varying extents, displaying significant spatial differentiation. (3) Under the ecological protection scenario, forest area notably increased, and service levels in the central and northern regions improved markedly. Conversely, in the construction priority scenario, the expansion of construction land led to decreased service levels in the Yellow River system and pronounced clustering of affected areas. In the sustainable development scenario, both forest and construction land expanded, significantly enhancing service levels in the northern part of the study area. Based on these results, this study examines the impacts of regional social development on ecosystem services and offers zoning and control recommendations, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.
ZHANG Yan , LI Junnan , PAN Bohua . Evaluation and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin based on PLUS model: A case of Shaanxi section[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024 , 47(11) : 1935 -1946 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.651
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