Scenario projection analysis of ecosystem carbon stocks in the Tarim River Basin
Received date: 2023-06-11
Revised date: 2023-10-24
Online published: 2024-05-17
Land use patterns are important factors causing carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems and play a critical role in maintaining the stability of carbon stock levels. This study uses the coupled PLUS-InVEST model to assess and predict land use and carbon stock changes in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China from 1980 to 2020. Four scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, arable land protection, and urban development were established. The land use and carbon stock trends in the study area in 2030 were predicted by scenarios, and the effects of land use changes on carbon stock were investigated. The results are as follows: (1) The area of cultivated land, construction land, and unutilized land in the Tarim River Basin increased significantly during the 40-a period, whereas the area of forest land, grassland, and water decreased. (2) Carbon stock exhibited an overall upward trend from 1980 to 2020, with an overall increase of 22.66×106 t. The area of carbon stock increase was mainly distributed on the main stream of the Tarim River and its branches during the 40-a period. Unutilized land and grassland are the main carbon reservoirs in the Tarim River Basin, accounting for 24.77% and 19.37% of the total carbon stock, respectively. (3) The different scenarios showed that the loss of carbon stock after 2020 was larger and the rate of loss gradually accelerated, the carbon stock reduction area was mainly distributed in the middle and southwest parts of the study area, and the transfer of grassland to unutilized land and forest land to grassland in the future was the main reason for carbon stock loss. The carbon stock loss under the four scenarios was reduced by 0.0475×108 t, 0.0051×108 t, 0.0285×108 t and 0.0473×108 t, respectively. (4) The transfer of cropland to woodland, grassland to woodland, watershed to grassland and unutilized land, and unutilized land to cropland and grassland are conducive to carbon storage. Therefore, in future planning, we should combine arable land and ecological protection, control the expansion of construction land to the outside while ensuring the growth of the local economy, increase carbon storage, and build up the strength to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.
Key words： Tarim River Basin; land use; carbon stock; PLUS model; InVEST model; Xinjiang
FU Wei , XIA Wenhao , FAN Tongsheng , ZOU Zhen , HUO Yu . Scenario projection analysis of ecosystem carbon stocks in the Tarim River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024 , 47(4) : 634 -647 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.274
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