Abstract:

For efficient conservation of endangered species, it is crucial to clarify the potential distribution of the species and the gap with current nature reserves. To predict the distribution of Tetraena mongolia in the present (the 2020s) and future (2060s, 2100s), and to explore the conservation gap with natural reserves，this study estimated the potential habitat of Tetraena mongolia in the western Ordos of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, China using the MaxEnt model and conducted a gap analysis between the potential habitat and current Tetraena mongolia nature reserves based on 23 environmental factors. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of the MaxEnt model was 0.977, indicating that the prediction was accurate. The crucial environmental factors affecting the distribution of Tetraena mongolia were precipitation of the wettest month, followed by precipitation of the driest month, distance from the road, isotherm properties, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and slope. The current suitable area of Tetraena mongolia is 4717 km²; the potential distribution area decreased from the 2020s to the 2100s and shifted to the northwest. Presently, only 14.88% of the suitable habitats of Tetraena mongolia are located in protected areas. Large areas of suitable habitats for Tetraena mongolia have not been established as nature reserves, which are mainly concentrated in Wuhai City and Hangjinqi Banner of Ordos City. This study provides scientific guidance for the conservation of Tetraena mongolia and its natural reserve development.

Key words: Tetraena mongolica, MaxEnt model, potential distribution area, GAP analysis