关键词: 新疆, 风能资源数值模拟, 偏差分析, 统计订正

Abstract: When the midterm plan about wind power development and reaching interconnection objective between Xinjiang and Northwestern of China Power Networks in 2010 were issued by Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in 2008,the national wide detail wind energy resources investigation and estimation was still in the process of preparing the technical scheme and selecting sites of building wind measurement masts in the detail investigated areas. Under the circumstances,wind energy resources numerical simulation experiment of horizontal 3 km resolution was carried adopting mesoscale model MM5 in most of areas in Xinjiang based on the NCEP reanalysis materials in 2006,in which,the wind energy resources characteristic has multiyear average representation to some extends,the analyses of comparison between the observed wind datum from the meteorological stations and the simulated ones at the height of 10 m above the ground indicate that the model has better ability to depict spatial distribution characteristics of either annual or monthly mean wind speed though the systematic bias exists to some extends. The bias amplitude varies with seasons and different wind areas,generally showing less bias in summer than in winter and less in strong wind areas than in weak wind areas. For example,the bias is the smallest in Dabancheng-Xiaocaohu,the southeastern of Hami,Santanghu-Naomaohu wind area. In some wind areas,the bias between the simulated and the observed annual mean wind speed can drop largely by the method of linear regressive modification month by month,but it is extremely limit for annual effective hour because the bias amplitude of modified simulation value is still random. The simulation bias of annual mean wind power density can drop largely with reducing hourly mean wind speed’s cube by the approach of linear regressive modification monthbymonth,while the air density can be replaced by the observed for a simulated month. The study doesn’t only have practical significance for the recent finished detail wind energy resources investigation and estimation about the optimum physical parameterization schemes select and adjustment of horizontal resolution in the Mesoscale Model MM5,but also provides the research materials for that of how to improve the short term wind power prediction.

Key words: Xinjiang, numerical simulation on wind energy resources, bias analysis, statistical modification