西风-夏季风协同作用对青藏高原夏季降水的影响研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.180

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (2): 332-342.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.180 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025180

西风-夏季风协同作用对青藏高原夏季降水的影响研究

张璐¹^,²(), 周秉荣³, 颜玉倩¹^,³(), 曹晓云¹^,³, 马有绚²

1.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海西宁 810001
2.青海省气候中心，青海西宁 810001
3.青海省气象科学研究所，青海西宁 810001

收稿日期:2025-04-10 修回日期:2025-07-07 出版日期:2026-02-25 发布日期:2026-02-27
通讯作者: 颜玉倩（1990-），女，硕士研究生，高级工程师，主要从事天气气候等方面的研究. E-mail: yan_yq1113@sina.com
作者简介:张璐（1994-），女，硕士研究生，工程师，主要从事高原气候变化等方面的研究. E-mail: zhanglu_0905@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然基金联合基金(U21A2021);青海省科技厅基础研究计划项目(2025-ZJ-740);青海省防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金重点项目(QFZ-2021-Z14)

Impact of westerly-monsoon synergistic interaction on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

ZHANG Lu¹^,²(), ZHOU Bingrong³, YAN Yuqian¹^,³(), CAO Xiaoyun¹^,³, MA Youxuan²

1. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
2. Climate Center of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
3. Institute of Qinghai Meteorological Science Research, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China

Received:2025-04-10 Revised:2025-07-07 Published:2026-02-25 Online:2026-02-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原夏季降水是亚洲水塔水资源的关键来源，阐明西风-夏季风协同作用对其影响，可为理解区域气候变异及水资源管理提供理论依据。基于CN05.1降水数据集（0.25°×0.25°）和美国气象环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析资料，分析了1981—2022年青藏高原夏季降水的时空演变特征，界定了上游西风指数关键区（32°~40°N，65°~85°E）和下游夏季风指数关键区（18~32°N，90°~100°E），并构建西风-夏季风协同指数揭示西风、夏季风协同作用对高原夏季降水的影响机制。结果表明：（1）近42 a高原夏季降水呈显著增湿趋势，每10 a增加4.85 mm，并且空间分布不均，东南部降水通量大约为西北柴达木盆地的6倍。EOF分解表明，第一模态呈全域一致性湿化特征，2010年后期加速显著；第二模态则揭示南北反位相振荡的年代际变化特征。（2）西风-夏季风协同指数相较于单一的环流指数能更有效地表征高原夏季降水变率，其两者存在0.5的相关关系，反映出高层西风与低层夏季风协同增强时，高原降水显著增加，特别是在三江源至川西地区。（3）西风-夏季风协同作用显著影响高原夏季降水，当协同作用偏强时，西风辐散环流配合低层暖湿水汽输送，通过增强垂直上升运动促进降水；当协同作用偏弱时，东风异常环流伴随低层干冷北风，受下沉气流主导，不利于降水生成。研究结果构建的环流协同指数有助于提升高原降水预测能力，为生态保护和防灾减灾提供科学支撑。

关键词: 夏季降水, 夏季风, 西风, 水汽输送, 协同作用, 青藏高原

Abstract:

Using the CN05.1 precipitation dataset and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of summer precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2022 and explores the influence of westerly-monsoon synergy on this precipitation. The results show that: (1) Average summer precipitation over the past four decades is 216.6 mm, with a spatial pattern that decreases from the southeast to the northwest and an increasing trend of 4.85 mm per decade. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode indicates a spatially coherent change across the plateau, with a notable increase in wetness observed in the late 2010s, while the second EOF mode reveals pronounced interdecadal variability. (2) The westerly-monsoon synergy index provides a more robust indicator of summer precipitation over the plateau than individual westerly and monsoon indices, with a correlation coefficient of 0.5, effectively capturing interannual variability. (3) The westerly-monsoon synergy exerts a significant influence on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. When the synergistic effect strengthens, the upper-level divergent westerly circulation interacts with low-level warm and moist air transported by the westerlies, enhancing vertical ascent and promoting precipitation. Conversely, when the synergy is weak, anomalous easterly circulation dominates, accompanied by low-level dry and cold northerly flows, under which subsidence and moisture divergence suppress precipitation formation.

Key words: summer precipitation, summer monsoon, westerlies, water vapor transport, synergistic interaction, Tibetan Plateau

张璐, 周秉荣, 颜玉倩, 曹晓云, 马有绚. 西风-夏季风协同作用对青藏高原夏季降水的影响研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(2): 332-342.

ZHANG Lu, ZHOU Bingrong, YAN Yuqian, CAO Xiaoyun, MA Youxuan. Impact of westerly-monsoon synergistic interaction on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 332-342.

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西风-夏季风协同作用对青藏高原夏季降水的影响研究

Impact of westerly-monsoon synergistic interaction on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

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