未来多情景下柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性评价及预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.170

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了客观且科学地评价和管理新疆柯柯牙生态工程区的水资源脆弱性，基于自然、人为及社会经济3方面构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系，设置现状发展型、经济导向型、资源节约型及绿色协调型4种情景，应用综合模糊评价法、熵权法以及系统动力学模型对区域水资源脆弱性进行评价及预测。结果表明：（1） 2010—2020年研究区水资源脆弱性总体得分为0.466，属中等脆弱。（2）现状发展型、经济导向型、资源节约型和绿色协调型4种发展情景下的水资源脆弱性均呈现上升趋势，到2035年4种情景下的水资源脆弱值分别为0.512、0.574、0.549、0.511，表明在未来区内水资源供需问题日益严峻，其中资源节约型对缓解水资源供需不平衡的效果最优。该研究探寻柯柯牙工程实施前后水资源的变化特征，提供设置不同发展情景分析了未来水资源脆弱性变化规律，对干旱区绿化工程的实施提供相关理论参考，同时也对当地的水资源可持续发展具有一定的现实意义。

关键词: 水资源脆弱性, 系统动力学模型, 模糊综合评价, 柯柯牙工程区

Abstract:

With the rapid economic development and the population growth, the fragility of water resources has become a key constraint on the sustainable development of the Kekeya Project Area in Xinjiang, China. Based on natural, anthropogenic and socio-economic factors, an evaluation index system of water resource fragility was constructed incorporating four developmental scenarios: status-quo development, economy orientation, resource conservation, and green coordination. The system dynamics model was employed to assess and predict water resource fragility in the region. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, the water fragility of the area decreased with increased water conservation efforts, but overall fragility remained moderate. Of the four development scenarios, simulation results for water resources’ healthy development showed, first, an upward trend for water resources’ future fragility, and, second, that resource conservation scenario will best alleviate imbalance between water supply and demand. Therefore, adjusting economic structure and innovating water-saving technologies can have a positive effect on alleviating water resource fragility. Future development should prioritize not only the economic development of the Kekeya Project Zone, but also increase the intensity of ecological construction to achieve high-quality, sustainable water resource management in the in the region.

Key words: water vulnerability, system dynamics model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Kekeya area

杨雪梅, 王让会, 刘春伟. 未来多情景下柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性评价及预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 640-648.

YANG Xuemei, WANG Ranghui, LIU Chunwei. Assessment and prediction of water resource vulnerability in Kekeya area under the future multi-scenario model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 640-648.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标属性	数据来源/计算方式
柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性	自然因素	降水量（X₁）	-	气象资料数据
		森林覆盖率（X₂）	-	森林面积/区域总面积×100%
		蒸发量（X₃）	+	统计年鉴数据
		年径流（X₄）	+	统计年鉴数据
	人为因素	人口密度（X₅）	+	总人口/区域面积
		水资源开发利用率（X₆）	+	总用水量/水资源总量
		农业生产用水量（X₇）	+	农业用水/总用水量
		人均生活用水量（X₈）	-	生活用水总量/总人口
	经济社会因素	人均GDP（X₉）	-	地区生产总值/总人口
		单位工业产值用水量（X₁₀）	-	工业用水总量/工业增加值
		工业用水比例（X₁₁）	+	工业用水量/总用水量
		城镇化率（X₁₂）	+	城镇人口/总人口

指标	熵值法	CRITIC法	总权重	指标	熵值法	CRITIC法	总权重
X₁	0.066	0.072	0.069	X₇	0.079	0.059	0.069
X₂	0.090	0.117	0.103	X₈	0.039	0.066	0.052
X₃	0.092	0.101	0.096	X₉	0.072	0.121	0.097
X₄	0.086	0.084	0.085	X₁₀	0.087	0.086	0.087
X₅	0.095	0.062	0.079	X₁₁	0.122	0.083	0.102
X₆	0.065	0.066	0.066	X₁₂	0.108	0.083	0.095

参数	发展情景
参数	现状发展型	经济导向型	资源节约型	绿色协调型
第一产业增长率	6.50	10.00	3.00	8.00
第二产业增长率	9.20	14.00	4.80	11.00
第三产业增长率	8.80	12.00	5.00	10.00
人口增长率	1.00	2.00	0.60	1.40
城镇化率增长率	0.29	0.50	0.18	0.38
工业用水增长率	0.80	1.00	0.60	0.90