青海东部降雨型滑坡灾害特征及其致灾雨量分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.382

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (4): 632-639.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.382 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024382

青海东部降雨型滑坡灾害特征及其致灾雨量分析

赵国蓉¹^,²(), 李万志²^,³^,⁴(), 刘冰¹, 祁门紫仪³

1.海北州气象局，青海海晏 810200
2.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海西宁 810001
3.青海省气候中心，青海西宁 810001
4.青海省温室气体及碳中和重点实验室，青海西宁 810001

收稿日期:2024-06-20 修回日期:2024-09-14 出版日期:2025-04-25 发布日期:2025-04-18
通讯作者: 李万志（1984-），男，本科，高级工程师，主要从事气象灾害风险评估工作. E-mail: li_wanzhi@163.com
作者简介:赵国蓉（1993-），女，本科，工程师，主要从事预报预测和气象服务工作. E-mail: 13139081822@163.com
基金资助:
青海省重点研发与转化计划(2023-SF-109);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906);青海省气象局重点项目(QXZD2023-02)

Characteristics of rainfall-type landslide disasters in eastern Qinghai and analysis of their causing rainfalls

ZHAO Guorong¹^,²(), LI Wanzhi²^,³^,⁴(), LIU Bing¹, QI Menziyi³

1. Haibei Meteorological Bureau, Haiyan 810200, Qinghai, China
2. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
3. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
4. Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Neutral Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China

Received:2024-06-20 Revised:2024-09-14 Published:2025-04-25 Online:2025-04-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

降雨型滑坡是青海省发生次数最多、影响最大的地质灾害，但关于诱发滑坡的降雨雨量特征仍缺少相关研究。通过对2016—2023年发生的339次降雨型滑坡事件发生当日及前1~10 d降水条件进行分析，以理清降雨型滑坡灾害特征及其致灾的降水条件。研究表明：（1）降雨型滑坡呈东多西少分布，西宁市和海东市发生次数最多，西宁市辖区、湟中区、民和县、乐都区为高发县。（2）降雨型滑坡发生次数与汛期降水量具有较好的一致性，并与前期降水累计量关系密切。（3）滑坡发生具有滞后性，滑坡有效降水在10 d以内存在3 d和7 d 2个有效降水期，当10 d累计降水量大于40 mm时发生滑坡的概率较大。（4）在滑坡发生的过程中，小雨、中雨是基础，大雨、大雨以上量级降水是诱因。

关键词: 降雨型滑坡, 致灾雨量, 前期有效雨量, 青海东部

Abstract:

Rainfall-type landslides are the most frequent and impactful geological hazards in Qinghai Province, China; however, studies on the specific rainfall characteristics that trigger these landslides remain limited. This paper analyzes 339 rainfall-type landslides that occurred between 2016 and 2023 by examining precipitation conditions on the day of occurrence and 1-10 days prior. The objective is to identify the disaster characteristics of rainfall-type landslides and their triggering precipitation conditions. The study reveals the following: (1) Rainfall-type landslides are more frequent in the east than in the west, with Xining City and Haidong City accounting for 76.1% of occurrences. The highest incidence is observed in Xining City’s Huangzhong District, Minhe County, and Ledu District. (2) Landslide frequency correlates with rainfall distribution—years with higher rainfall tend to experience more landslides, with August being the peak month for occurrences. (3) Light to moderate rainfall serves as the foundational condition for landslides, while heavy rainfall or greater acts as the triggering factor. When the cumulative rainfall of 10 days exceeds 40 mm, the probability of landslide occurrence increases significantly. (4) Rainfall-type landslides exhibit a certain lag effect relative to rainfall. The probability of occurrence is highest on the day following two consecutive days of heavy rainfall or greater, as well as on the third day after rainfall ends. In addition, landslide probability increases again approximately five days after rainfall ceases. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for understanding the occurrence mechanisms of rainfall-type landslides and developing forecasting and early warning models.

Key words: rainfall-type landslides, disaster-causing rainfall, pre-effective rainfall, eastern Qinghai

赵国蓉, 李万志, 刘冰, 祁门紫仪. 青海东部降雨型滑坡灾害特征及其致灾雨量分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 632-639.

ZHAO Guorong, LI Wanzhi, LIU Bing, QI Menziyi. Characteristics of rainfall-type landslide disasters in eastern Qinghai and analysis of their causing rainfalls[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 632-639.

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等级	降水量级/mm
小雨	(0, 5)
中雨	[5, 12.5)
大雨	[12.5, 25)
暴雨	[25, ∞)

出现1次大雨或以上量级降水时间	滑坡次数/次	62次滑坡次数的比例/%
当天	9	14.5
前1 d	10	16.1
前2 d	3	4.8
前3 d	5	8.1
前4 d	4	6.5
前5 d	6	9.7
前6 d	4	6.5
前7 d	4	6.5
前8 d	5	8.1
前9 d	9	14.5
前10 d	3	4.8

青海东部降雨型滑坡灾害特征及其致灾雨量分析

Characteristics of rainfall-type landslide disasters in eastern Qinghai and analysis of their causing rainfalls

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