基于树轮宽度的太白山地区春季干湿变化重建

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.04.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 秦岭为我国气候分界线和南水北调中线重要水源地,太白山为其最高峰,了解太白山区域的过去干湿变化特征对气候变化机制研究和未来水资源持续利用具有重要意义。基于秦岭太白山地区太白红杉树木年轮资料及其附近的宝鸡、眉县气象站1959—2016年气象数据进行分析,重建了1852—2016年春季（3~5月）SPEI值,分析了近165 a太白山春季干湿变化特征及其与大尺度环流变化关系。结果表明：（1）太白山地区太白红杉径向生长主要受春季气候限制;与春季SPEI值相关性最高,达到–0.72（P<0.01）,重建方程方差解释量为51.8%（调整自由度后为51.0%）。（2）重建结果表明,近165 a来,有29 a春季为湿润年份,有23 a春季为干旱年份,分别占比为17.58%和13.94%。极端干旱年份为1892年、1929年、1945年和2006年,极端湿润年份为1881年、1921年和1990年,其中1892年（–1.73）和1881年（1.53）分别为最干旱和最湿润的年份。（3）重建结果得到了周边地区干湿变化重建结果和历史文献灾害记载的验证;太白山地区干湿变化可以准确表征大区域干湿变化且存在2.5 a、3.1 a、3.8 a和8.4 a周期变化。太白山地区SPEI与赤道东太平洋海面温度成负相关以及与赤道西太平洋海面温度呈正相关,其干湿变化可能与ENSO活动有关。

关键词: 太白山, 太白红杉, 树木年轮, 春季, SPEI

Abstract: Qinling Mountains is considered the climatic boundary of China. It contains an important water source of the middle region of the south-to-north water diversion. Taibai Mountain is the highest peak in the region. Understanding the characteristics of past dry-wet changes in the Taibai Mountain area is of great importance for the study of the climate change mechanism and the sustainable use of water resources in the future. This study reconstructed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） value of the spring of 1852–2016 （3–5 months） based on the data retrieved from the Larix chinensis tree-ring widths in the Taibai Mountain area in the Qinling Mountains and the meteorological data （1959–2016） obtained from the nearby Baoji and Meixian meteorological stations. The results indicated as follows：（1） the radial growth of Larix chinensis in Taibai Mountain is mainly limited by spring climate change;as it exhibited the highest correlation with spring SPEI value,reaching–0.72 （P<0.01）,and the reconstruction captured 51.8% （51.0% after adjusting the degree of freedom） of the SPEI variance. （2） Among the past 165 years,29 years were wet years and 23 years were drought years,accounting for 17.58% and 13.94%,respectively,of the total. The extreme drought years were identified to be 1892,1929,1945,and 2006 CE and the extreme wet years were 1881,1921,and 1990 CE. The driest and wettest years were 1892 CE （–1.73） and 1881 CE （1.53）,respectively. （3） The reconstructed SPEI values was found to be in agreement with the reconstruction results of the wet and dry changes in the surrounding areas and with the historical records of the disasters. The dry and wet changes in Taibai Mountain can accurately characterize the dry and wet changes in large areas and show cyclical changes of 8.4,3.8,3.1,and 2.5 years. The SPEI in the Taibai Mountain area was found to be positively correlated with the western Pacific Sea surface temperatures and negatively correlation with those of the eastern Pacific. The dry and wet changes were found to be related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） activities.

Key words: the Taibai Mountain, Larix chinensis, tree-rings width, spring, SPEI

齐贵增, 白红英, 孟清, 赵婷, 郭少壮. 基于树轮宽度的太白山地区春季干湿变化重建[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4): 955-966.

QI Gui-zeng, BAI Hong-ying, MENG Qing, ZHAO Ting, GUO Shao-zhuang. Reconstruction of spring dry and wet changes in Taibai Mountain area based on tree ring width[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 955-966.

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