和田地区人口与经济发展时空演变与分布差异研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以和田地区七县一市作为研究基本单元，根据1995-2014 年人口、GDP和人均GDP面板数据分析了其人口与经济发展演变特征，通过人口经济一致性指数、偏离度指数和Pearson 相关系数探讨了和田地区人口经济分布的差异性，研究发现：近20 a 来和田地区人口和经济快速增长，各县市人口数量和经济发展差异很大；人口集聚与经济集聚水平差异较大并呈现扩大趋势，总体上东部地区人口集聚低于经济集聚，中部地区人口经济集聚基本一致，西部地区人口集聚高于经济集聚；人口分布与经济发展空间一致性总体呈变弱的趋势，人口经济分布差异的变大与地区经济差距的变大有非常高的相关性；地区的自然环境条件和社会经济发展条件是造成和田人口和经济分布差异性的主要原因。

关键词: 人口分布, 经济发展, 空间差异, 和田

Abstract: Population distribution is closely related to the social and economic development of regions and countries. It is meaningful to reveal population and economic spatial pattern,promote coordinate development of population and economy by studying on the relationship between them. Based on studies in Hotan Prefecture,Xinjiang, China,this paper revealed the characteristics of population and economic development in Hotan and evaluated the spatial difference of population distribution and economic development,which could provide support for relevant departments to formulate population development policies and optimize the distribution pattern between population and economy. Moreover,it could provide a reference for the research on population and economy in the poor areas. Firstly,the spatial pattern of population and economy of Hotan was analyzed with the population, GDP and per capita GDP panel data during 1995-2014. Then distribution disparities of population and economic development were studied with population economic consistency index,consistency deviation index and the Pearson correlation coefficient and the main reasons for the disparities were given. The results showed as follows: the population and economy grew rapidly in the past twenty years and the economic disparities kept expanding in Hotan. There were big differences between population and economic development in different units. The population agglomeration and economic agglomeration level is very different in different units and it was increasing. The coordination between the distribution of the population and economic development changed from good to weak since 1995. According to the population-economy consistency index,there were three types of consistency in Hotan. On the whole,the agglomeration level of population was lower than that of economy in the eastern region, mainly including Minfeng County;the agglomeration level of population was almost the same as that of economy in central region,including counties of Cele,Luopu,Yutian and Hotan;and the agglomeration level of population was higher than that of economy in the western region,including Moyu and Pishan County. In addition,the population concentration was lower than the economic agglomeration of Hotan City. The population-economy consistency was becoming worse revealed by the consistency deviation index and the distribution disparities of population and economic development in Hotan was increasing. There was high correlation between the distribution disparities of population-economy and economic development difference according the Pearson correlation coefficient. The distribution disparities of population and economy were caused mainly by environmental conditions and socio-economic development conditions in Hotan Prefecture. In the end,some suggestions to promote coordinated development of population and economy in Hotan were proposed. Various development strategies should be implemented according to the situation of population and economic development of different units. What's more,more attentions should be focused on industry assistance when other cities and provinces of east China have been supporting and helping Hotan. At the same time,it is essential to attach importance to environmental protection for every unit of Hotan to promote the coordinated development of society,economy,ecology and environment.

Key words: Population distribution, economic development, spatial differences, Hotan

中图分类号:

C92-05

马淑燕, 杨德刚, 霍金炜, 夏富强. 和田地区人口与经济发展时空演变与分布差异研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(3): 647-654.

MA Shu-yan, YANG De-gang, HUO Jin-wei, XIA Fu-qiang. Space-time evolution and distribution disparities of population and economic development in Hotan Prefecture[J]. , 2017, 40(3): 647-654.

参考文献

[1] 陈彦光. 中国人口转变、城市化和产业结构演变的对应关系研究[J]. 地理研究,2010,29(12):2109-2120.[CHEN Yanguang. The corresponding relationships between the demographic transition, urbanization process,and industrial development of China[J]. Geographical Research,2010,29(12):2109-2120.]

[2] HONDROYIANNIS G,PAPAPETROU E. Demographic changes and economic activity in Greece[J]. Review of Economics of the Household,2004,2(1):49-71.

[3] GARZA-RODRIGUEZ J,ANDRADE-VELASCO C I,MARTINEZ- SILVA K D,et al. The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016.

[4] 杜忠潮,黄波,陈佳丽. 关中—天水经济区城市群人口经济与资源环境发展耦合协调性分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2015,38(1): 135-147.[DU Zhongchao,HUANG Bo,CHEN Jiali. Coordinating development of population economy and resources environmentof the city group in Guanzhong-Tianshui[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015,38(1):135-147.]

[5] 赵媛,吴连霞,杜志鹏. 江苏省人口老龄化与区域经济发展关系研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):87-91.[ZHAO Yuan,WU Lianxia,DU Zhipeng. Research on the relationship between population aging and regional economic development in Jiangsu Province[J]. Geography and geographic information science,2015,31(3):87-91.]

[6] 田成诗,郝艳,李文静,等. 中国人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响[J]. 资源科学,2015,37(12):2309-2318.[TIAN Chengshi, HAO Yan,LIWenjing,et al. Population age structure effects on carbon emission in China[J]. Resources science,2015,37(12): 2309-2318.]

[7] 刘娜,石培基,李博. 甘肃省人口经济空间分异与关联研究[J]. 干旱区地理,2014,37(1):179-187.[LIU Na,SHI Peiji,LI Bo. Space difference and correlation between population and economy in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography,2014,37(1): 179-187.]

[8] 封志明,刘晓娜. 中国人口分布与经济发展空间一致性研究[J]. 人口与经济,2013,2:3-11.[FENG Zhiming,LIU Xiaona. Multi-scale studies on the space consistency between population distribution and economic development in China[J].Population & Economics,2013,2:3-11.]

[9] 周艳,涂建军,卢德彬,等. 重庆市人口与经济空间分布关系及其变化研究[J]. 经济地理,2011,31(11):1781-1785.[ZHOU Yan,TU Jianjun,LU Debin,et al. Study on the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution and its dynamic in Chongqing[J]. Economic Geography,2011,31(11): 1781-1785.]

[10] 薛莹莹,沈茂英. 成都市人口分布与区域经济协调发展研究[J]. 西北人口,2009,30(2):84-87.[XUE Yingying,SHEN Maoying. The research on the coordination development of population distribution and regional economy in Chengdu[J]. Northeast population,2009,30(2):84-87.]

[11] 肖艳秋,杨德刚,唐宏,等. 塔里木河流域人口-经济分布不均衡特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2012,35(2):309-317.[XIAO Yanqiu,YANG Degang,TANG Hong,et al. Imbalanced distribution characteristics of population economy of Tarim Basin,Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(2):309-317.]

[12] 樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨. 中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J]. 地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.[FAN Jie,TAO Anjun,LV Chen. The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China[J]. Progress in Geography,2010, 29(1):87-95.]

[13] 张车伟,蔡翼飞. 人口与经济分布匹配视角下的中国区域均衡发展[J]. 人口研究,2013,37(6):3-16.[ZHANG Chewei,CAI Yifei. Balanced regional development in China:demographic and economic distribution mismatch[J]. Population Research, 2013,37(6):3-16.]

[14] 刘彦随,周扬,刘继来. 中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略[J]. 中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):269-278.[LIU Yansui,ZHOU Yang,LIU Jilai. Regional differentiation characteristics of rural poverty and targeted poverty alleviation strategy in China[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,31 (3):269-278.]

[15] 李裕瑞,曹智,郑小玉,等. 我国实施精准扶贫的区域模式与可持续途径[J]. 中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):279-288.[LI Yurui, CAO Zhi,ZHENG Xiaoyu,et al. Regional and sustainable approach for target-poverty alleviation and development of China[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,31(3): 279-288.]

[16] WILLIAMSON J G. Regional inequality and the process of national development:a description of the patterns[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1965,13(4):3-45.

[17] 陈培阳,朱喜钢. 基于不同尺度的中国区域经济差异[J]. 地理学报,2012,67(8):1085-1097.[CHEN Peiyang,ZHU Xigang. Regional inequalities in China at different scales[J].ActaGeographicaSinica, 2012,67(8):1085-1097.]