新疆县域人口与畜牧业经济时空演化分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以ARCGIS和GEODA软件为技术平台，采用探索性空间分析方法对2001-2014年新疆人口与畜牧业经济空间演化进行分析。结果表明：2001-2014年新疆人口与畜牧业地理集中度分布总体较为一致，基本呈现以哈密、伊犁、喀什为三个端点的“C”型，但两者的地理联系率在2007年出现拐点，联系率开始持续减小；人口单变量和人口与畜牧业经济双变量空间自相关均不显著，但畜牧业经济呈现显著空间正自相关性，畜牧业经济呈现高度集聚特征；其LISA图表明H-H区域主要分布在北疆天山北坡经济带一线，L-L区域主要分布在南疆塔里木盆地区域，两者均出现集中连片特征，L-H区域分布较为分散，H-L区域零星出现；分布特征与自然禀赋条件差异、牧区畜牧业和农区畜牧业的布局特征紧密相连。

关键词: 畜牧业经济, 地理集中度, 空间自相关, 时空演化, 县域, 新疆

Abstract: Xinjiang is one of the main pastoral areas in China, and it is of great practical significance to explore the spatial correlation of the economic development of regional population and animal husbandry. With ARCGIS and GEODA software technology platform, based on the spatial distribution of Xinjiang with shape format data map and Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook(2002-2015), the spatial evolution of population and economic of animal husbandry of Xinjiang in 2001-2014 and the own and mutual spatial correlation of two factors were analyzed with the method of mathematical statistics such as geographic concentration and connection rate. The results showed as follows:(1) The population distribution and the animal husbandry geographical concentration degree of Xinjiang is consistent in general in 2001-2014, showing a "C" shape with Hami, Ili, Kashi Prefecture as the three endpoints, but the geographical contact rate of the population size and economy of animal husbandry appeared a inflection point in 2007, and decreased continually.(2) The spatial autocorrelation of single variable of population and the double variable population and animal husbandry economy were not significant.(3) Animal husbandry economy showed significant spatial autocorrelation with a high degree of agglomeration. The LISA chart shows that H-H mainly distributed in the Manas County, Fuhai County, Hutubi County, Changji City, Urumqi City, Fukang City, Jimsar County, Nilka county area, and static County and Gongliu County, L-L area is mainly distributed in the area of Yuli County and Ruoqiang County, Akesu City, Qiemo County, Shaya County, Hotan County and Yutian County, L-H regional distribution is more dispersed, and H-L region appear sporadically. The economic agglomeration and the regional dispersion pattern of animal husbandry of Xinjiang are more obvious, and the animal husbandry industry differentiation trend is clear. The layout features, regional distribution characteristics and natural conditions of animal husbandry in pastoral regions and in rural regions are closely linked. As to the economic development of animal husbandry, the layout of the livestock industry should be plan scientifically planned to construct and upgrade the level of agglomeration of the core area, play a leading role in regional animal husbandry economic growth, improve the living standards of residents,enhance the stimulating effect of the consumption capacity of residents on animal husbandry economy at the same time. The results of the paper could provide theoretical reference for the regional layout, industrial linkage design and development of animal husbandry in Xinjiang.

Key words: animal husbandry economy, geographical concentration, spatial autocorrelation, spatial evolution, county, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

F127

马晶, 朱美玲, 马永仁, 王娇. 新疆县域人口与畜牧业经济时空演化分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(6): 1380-1388.

MA Jing, ZHU Mei-ling, MA Yong-ren, WANG Jiao. Spatial temporal evolution analysis between the county population and animal husbandry economy in xinjiang[J]. , 2016, 39(6): 1380-1388.

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