能值生态足迹改进模型研究——以新疆为例

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 传统能值生态足迹模型因未考虑社会经济发展因素而导致“生态偏向”的弱可持续性评价结果。以新疆为例，引入社会经济间接生态承载力以改进传统模型，使其计算结果更科学合理。结果表明：2005-2014年新疆的（1）生态足迹呈波浪上升趋势，年均值为4.9 hm²·人^-1，低于西北地区平均水平。主要土地类型所占比重大小依次为：草地、耕地、石化能源用地、林地。（2）生态承载力变化不大，年均值为4.5 hm²·人^-1，和西北地区相比，新疆的生态承载力处于中低水平。（3）生态赤字为0.4 hm²·人^-1，是西北地区的33.9%。综上所述，新疆产生生态赤字的核心原因是过大的农牧业生产和重工业能耗，其可持续发展潜力较弱导致生态安全存在潜在风险。

关键词: 能值理论, 生态足迹, 改进模型, 可持续发展, 新疆

Abstract: The potential of ecological development sustainability of Xinjiang,China has important practical significance for stabilizing ecological environment. The energy ecological footprint(EEF) which is a combination of energy analysis and ecological footprint,takes the external factors of ecological system,the energy conversion and energy density to measure ecological sustainable development. Though the traditional energy ecological footprint model demonstrates the ecological carrying capacity from a new perspective,it could only be decided by local natural conditions and fails to reflect the contribution of social economic factors,resulting in a weak-sustainable of "ecological deviation" result. In order to avoid the shortages of traditional energy ecological footprint,in ecological carrying capacity calculation,we add the direct carrying capacity of natural resource which is based on the renewable resources,and the indirect carrying capacity of social economy which is based on population, GDP,urban rate,heavy industry,et al.,into the proposed model in this paper. By analyzing and assessing three index including the ecological footprint for ten thousand Yuan GDP,the sustainable development potential,and ecological balance index,this paper dynamically analyzed the ecological capability of sustainable development of Xinjiang from 2005-2014,and made clear the influence of social economic development factors on the sustainable development of the regional economic system in Xinjiang. The results show as follows:(1) the ecological footprint,with the annual average value being 4.9 hm² per capita,exhibited a wave-growth trend and was lower than Northwest average;from large to small,proportions of the main land type ranked as:grassland,arable land, fossil fuel land and wood land;(2) the annual ecological carrying had no significant change,with the annual average value being 4.5 hm² per capita;compared to Northwest,the ecological carrying capacity of Xinjiang was in the middle-low level;(3) the annual average value of the ecological deficit was 0.4 hm² per capita,which was 33.9% of Northwest China's. Above all,the big ecological deficit were mainly due to the giant pressure from the agricultural production and the heavy industry with high-level energy consumption,and the weak sustainable development capacity resulted in a potential risk to ecological security. According to the above results,we suggest to increase government financial investment,introduce new technology,and improve land and energy utilization efficiency. Aiming at the limitation of the traditional energy ecological footprint method,the paper puts forward the priority of the improvement. The calculation results of the creative energy ecological footprint model with social economic factor were basically consistent with the field research,and could comprehensively and truly reflect the situation of sustainable development in Xinjiang. The research methods and results would provide a reference for future sustainable development in Xinjiang.

Key words: emergy theory, ecological footprint, improved model, sustainable development, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

X171.1

吕越, 陈忠清. 能值生态足迹改进模型研究——以新疆为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(5): 1120-1127.

LV Yue, CHEN Zhong-qing. Improved model of emergy ecological footprint: a case study of Xinjiang[J]. , 2016, 39(5): 1120-1127.

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