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干旱区地理 ›› 2012, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (04): 552-558.

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961-2008年中国西北东部旱涝异常分布及干旱变化特征

赵红岩1,2，王有恒2，王兴2，谭丹3   

  1. 1中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点试验室，中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州730020;2西北区域气候中心，甘肃兰州730020;3兰州中心气象台，甘肃兰州730020
  • 收稿日期:2011-12-10 修回日期:2012-03-22 出版日期:2012-07-25
  • 作者简介:赵红岩（1965-），女，内蒙古赤峰人，副研究员，主要从事气候诊断预测和区域气候变化研究
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项：“西北区域气候变化影响评估报告”；“黄河流域气候变化影响评估报告”；兰州干旱气象研究所干旱基金（IAM200922）资助

Anomaly distribution of droughtflood and changing characteristics of arid over eastern northwest China during 1961-2008

ZHAO Hongyan1,2,WANG Youheng2,WANG Xing2,TAN Dan3   

  1. 1Lanzhou Arid Institute of Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA,Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China;2Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020,Gansu, China;3Lanzhou Meteorological Observatory Center, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu ,China
  • Received:2011-12-10 Revised:2012-03-22 Published:2012-07-25

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摘要： 应用主成分分析和旋转主成分分析方法，利用陕、甘、宁、青四省（区）170个测站，对1961-2008年大气干旱指数S＝ΔT/δT-ΔR/δR的地域相关和年际变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：西北地区东部旱涝异常在空间上表现为较高的整体一致性，其次表现为东西相反和南北相反的变化趋势。西北地区东部旱涝异常存在三个基本相关的区域：甘肃东南部及陕西、河西走廊及河套地区、青海区。50 a来，各区在1974-1977年间和1982-1985年间湿润多雨，1994年以后相对少雨干旱。进一步分析发现，研究区域中西部尽管降水是增加的，但干旱指数变化不明显，而区域东部地区干旱指数变化很明显，说明区域中西部地区变湿不明显，而区域东部暖干化趋势明显。

关键词: 中国西北东部, 正交旋转主成分分析, 干旱指数, 地域相关, 年际变化

Abstract: Based on the data of 170 stations in the area of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai Provinces of northwest China from 1961 to 2008, the regional interconnection and the interannual variability of the atmospheric aridity index were analyzed in this paper. The change trend of regional interconnection and interannual variability was analyzed with method of principal component and rotated principal component. The results show that the large value zone of spatial distribution of annualaridity index in northwest China is consistent with areas from Ningxia to central Gansu, from Dingxi to Longxi, Wushan, Lixian, Wudu and Wenxian, as well as in the dry tongue of the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The uniformity of drought and flood abnormities is high in spatial distribution and the first principal component of variance accounts for about 64.6% of the total variance. According to the distribution of loading vector of rotated principal component and their interconnection, three correlative regions of drought and flood abnormities might be approximately divided in the east part of northwest China: the southeast of Gansu and Shaanxi, Gansu corridor and Hetao area, and Qinghai area. In recently 50 years, all region reflected wet and rainy situation during 1974 to 1977 and 1982 to 1985, but dry situation since 1994. The further analysis found that the trend of the climate change shows that the aridity in the east part of northwest China is not an isolated phenomenon. The precipitation is increasing, but the change of the aridity index is unobvious in the Midwest region, which shows the trend of turning wet is unobvious. On the other hand, the change of the aridity index is obvious in the east part, which shows that the trend of turning warming and drying is obvious.

Key words: northwest area of China, EOF, REOF, aridity index, regional teleconnection, annual variation

中图分类号: 

  • P426.616