气候变化和人类活动对盐池县植被净初级生产力的影响

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.507

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为定量区分退耕还林还草背景下北方典型农牧交错带植被变化过程中气候变化和人类活动的相对贡献率,以宁夏盐池县2000—2020年植被变化为研究对象,基于MODIS13Q1-NDVI数据、地表覆盖数据和气象数据,采用Thornthwaite纪念模型和CASA（Carnegie-ames-stanford approach）模型分别估算了逐年的潜在净初级生产力（Potential net primary productivity, PNPP）和实际净初级生产力（Actual net primary productivity, ANPP）。综合运用趋势分析、相关分析和差值比较法分析了2000—2020年盐池县净初级生产力（Net primary productivity, NPP）时空变化特征及其驱动力,并定量确定了气候因子和人类活动对盐池县植被变化的相对贡献率。结果表明：（1）在2000—2020年盐池县NPP总体呈上升趋势,但存在着显著的空间异质性,主要表现为植被NPP改善区面积远大于NPP退化区面积,且改善或退化程度也存在显著的空间分异。植被改善区主要分布于荒漠、荒漠草原等退耕还林还草工程区域和灌溉区,而植被退化区则分布于荒漠和荒漠草原的边缘地带。（2）植被变化归因分析表明,在植被改善区,气候变化和人类活动共同主导驱动了植被的改善,但气候变化的相对贡献率（59.77%）大于人类活动的相对贡献率（40.23%）,而在植被退化区,人类活动的相对贡献率（91.77%）则显著高于气候变化的相对贡献率（8.23%）。（3）驱动力分析表明,研究区植被NPP变化与降水量呈显著正相关,而与气温的相关性较弱;而人类活动是驱动植被退化区NPP下降的主要原因,但负向影响力有所减弱。总体而言,气候变化是植被改善区的主要驱动力,而人类活动是植被退化区的主要驱动因素,两者共同作用则使盐池县整体生态环境得以改善。

关键词: 净初级生产力, 荒漠草原, 植被变化, 驱动力, 盐池县

Abstract:

This study aims to quantitatively differentiate the relative contribution rate of climate change and human activities during the vegetation cover change in the typical agricultural pastoral ecotone of Northern China under the background of the “grain to green project”. Taking vegetation change from 2000 to 2020 in the Yanchi County, Ningxia Province as the study object and using MODIS13Q1-NDVI, land cover data, and meteorological data from 2000 to 2020, the annual potential net primary productivity and actual net primary productivity were simulated using the models of Thornthwaite Memorial and Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach. The spatial and temporal change characteristics of the net primary productivity (NPP) in the Yanchi County and its driving force were analyzed, and the relative contribution rates of meteorological factors and human activities in the process of vegetation cover change were quantitatively calculated using trend analysis, correlation analysis, and difference comparison. The results showed the following: (1) The NPP totally presented an increasing trend, but there was an obvious spatial heterogeneity in the NPP change trend and degree, mainly manifested when the vegetation NPPs of the improved areas were far greater than the those of the degraded areas, and the extents of improvement and degradation showed significant spatial heterogeneity. The vegetation-improved areas were mainly distributed in the desert and desert steppe (where the “grain to green project” was conducted) and in irrigated areas, whereas the vegetation-degraded areas were mainly distributed in the edge zones of the desert and desert steppe. (2) The vegetation change attribution analysis results indicated that in the vegetation-improved areas, the relative contribution rate of climate change (59.77%) was higher than that of human activities (40.23%). Meanwhile, in the vegetation-degraded areas, the relative contribution rate of human activities (91.77%) was higher than that of climate change (8.23%). (3) The driving force analysis results indicated that the vegetation NPP was positively correlated with precipitation but weakly correlated with temperature. Human activities were the main driving force that drove the NPP decrease in the vegetation-degraded areas. In summary, climate change was the main driving force that drove the NPP improvement in the vegetation-improved areas, whereas human activities were the main driving factors that led to the NPP decrease in the vegetation-degraded areas. Climate and human activities jointly dominated the improvement of the total ecological environment in the Yanchi County.

Key words: net primary productivity (NPP), desert steppe, vegetation change, driving force, Yanchi County

李诗瑶,丛士翔,王融融,余海龙,黄菊莹. 气候变化和人类活动对盐池县植被净初级生产力的影响[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(4): 1186-1199.

LI Shiyao,CONG Shixiang,WANG Rongrong,YU Hailong,HUANG Juying. Effects of climate change and human activities on net primary productivity of vegetation in Yanchi County[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(4): 1186-1199.

图/表 13

图1

表1

不同情景下气候变化和人类活动在植被变化中相对贡献的评估方法"

植被变化状况	情景	S_PNPP	S_HNPP	气候变化的相对贡献/%	人类活动的相对贡献/%	说明
植被改善（S_ANPP>0）	情景1	>0	>0	100	0	气候变化主导植被改善
	情景2	<0	<0	0	100	人类活动主导植被改善
	情景3	>0	<0	$\| Δ P N P P \| \| Δ P N P P \| + \| Δ H N P P \| × 100 %$	$\| Δ H N P P \| \| Δ P N P P \| + \| Δ H N P P \| × 100 %$	共同主导植被改善,以其各自变化量所占的比例为各自的相对贡献
植被退化（S_ANPP<0）	情景4	<0	<0	100	0	气候变化主导植被退化
	情景5	>0	>0	0	100	人类活动主导植被退化
	情景6	<0	>0	$\| Δ P N P P \| \| Δ P N P P \| + \| ∆ H N P P \| × 100 %$	$\| Δ H N P P \| \| Δ P N P P \| + \| Δ H N P P \| × 100 %$	共同主导植被退化,以其各自变化量所占的比例为各自的相对贡献

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

表2

表3

图9

图10

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植被变化程度	总像元数	像元百分比/%	气候变化		人类活动
植被变化程度	总像元数	像元百分比/%	像元数	像元百分比/%	像元数	像元百分比/%
极显著改善区	72008	68.91	17275	23.99	54733	76.01
显著改善区	18004	17.23	14787	82.13	3217	17.87
无显著改善区	13844	13.25	8750	63.27	5058	36.73
极显著退化区	57	0.05	17	28.83	40	71.17
显著退化区	41	0.04	10	24.39	31	75.61
无显著退化区	537	0.52	80	14.90	457	85.10

植被类型	植被改善区		植被退化区
植被类型	气候变化相对贡献率/%	人类活动相对贡献率/%	气候变化相对贡献率/%	人类活动相对贡献率/%
荒漠	32.02	67.98	29.47	70.53
荒漠草原	48.03	51.97	24.18	75.82
典型草原	69.61	30.39	8.33	91.67
粮食及经济作物	64.83	35.17	28.57	71.43
草甸	61.37	38.63	-	-
落叶灌丛	61.28	38.72	-	-