关键词: &ldquo, 五化&rdquo, 协同, 熵权法, 地理加权回归分析, 时空演变格局

Abstract: This paper selected 87 counties,county-level cities and autonomous counties in Gansu Province,China as the research unit and measured these regions' level of industrialization,urbanization,informatization,agricultural modernization and greenization (abbreviation as "Five Modernizations"),and the coordination development degree of "Five Modernizations",as well as the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors.Constructing the model of the "Five Modernizations" collaborative development,the weight of each index was calculated by entropy method.Using the spatial analysis method,Spatial Auto-correlation Analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression analysis (GWR),the spatial-temporal pattern,spatio-temporal evolution trend and influence factors of "Five Modernizations" collaborative development were analyzed.The results show that the coordination development level of "Five Modernizations" in Gansu has been increased gradually.The index of coordination development level of "Five Modernizations" was 0.510 2 in 2015 which suggested a constrained synergy type,meaning the coordination was mildly disordered,or on the verge of disorder or constrained.Considering social and economy factors,this paper selected 12 factors including GDP,total investment in fixed assets,fiscal expenditure,disposable income of urban residents,consumption level of urban residents,disposable income of rural residents,consumption level of rural residents,disposable income of urban and rural residents,consumption level of urban and rural residents,total retail sales of social consumer goods,road length,topography relief and precipitation to explore the influence factors on coordination development of "Five Modernizations".Combining with the spatial autocorrelation analysis method,the global Moran's I value of the coordination development of "Five Modernizations" index in Gansu Province was 0.496 1,which indicated a significant spatial correlation with the confidence level being more than 0.05.In addition using space exploration analysis tool to eliminate the factors whose variance inflation factor variables (VIF) were greater than 10,the remaining factors included total investment in fixed assets,difference in disposable income of urban and rural residents,difference in consumption of urban and rural residents,disposable income of rural residents,fiscal expenditure,precipitation and topographic relief.Input these factors to the GWR model,we had the following results AICc value is -118.63,the R² value is 0.728 0 and Cond values is less than 30.According to the value of AICc, R² and Cond,GWR model has good rationality in analyzing the influencing factors.By comparing coefficient of each variable,the influence degree of the seven variables were listed in a descending order as follows:per capita disposable income of rural residents > discretionary disposable income of urban and rural residents > total fixed asset investment > expenditure on finance > topographic relief > consumption difference between urban and rural areas > precipitation.Study of the coordination development level of "Five Modernizations" in Gansu Province can provide reference for the scientific development policy of the county level units in Gansu Province,and put forward some suggestions for the coordination development.

Key words: collaborative development of “Five Modernizations”, entropy method, geographically weighted regression analysis, spatio-temporal evolution trend