近25 a来新疆农作物水足迹与经济增长的空间关系分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.08

干旱区地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 526-533.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.08

近25 a来新疆农作物水足迹与经济增长的空间关系分析

王杰¹，龙爱华^1，2，杨广¹，邓晓雅²，张沛²，海洋²，李扬²

（1 石河子大学水利建筑工程学院，新疆石河子 832000； 2 中国水利水电科学研究院，北京 100038）

出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-20
通讯作者: 龙爱华.E-mail: ahlong@iwhr.com
作者简介:王杰(1990-)，男，汉族，硕士研究生，主要从事社会水循环、水资源规划与配置研究工作.E-mail：939595628@qq.com
基金资助:
国家科学面上基金（51476209，51609260）；国家十三五国家重点专项课题（2017YF0404301）联合资助

Spatial relationship between crops water footprint and economic growth in Xinjiang in recent 25 years

WANG Jie¹, LONG Aihua^1,2, YANG Guang¹, DENG Xiaoya²,ZHANG Pei², HAI Yang²， LI Yang²

(1 Shihezi University Water Conservancy and Construction Engineering College,Shihezi 832000,Xinjiang,China；2 China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水—经济空间关系是干旱区与半干旱区水资源研究的热点，揭示水—经济空间分布演变规律和因果关系，可为优化水资源合理配置、合理部署产业结构调整政策提供理论和决策参考。研究应用水足迹理论，核算新疆各地州1991—2015年农作物水足迹，结合信息熵值理论分析新疆各地州农作物水足迹、国内生产总值、第一产业增加值其熵值的空间演变规律及因果关系。结果表明：新疆农作物水足迹与第一产业增加值、国内生产总值空间演变整体向着均衡有序的方向发展，水—经济的空间不均衡性逐步缩小；新疆农作物水足迹显著影响其第一产业增加值空间演变，影响期1～5 a，农业经济空间分布受农业用水空间分布的长期制约；农作物水足迹和国内生产总值没有空间演变因果关系，全疆经济发展向着第二产业、第三产发展转型，农业经济不再显著影响全疆经济发展。

关键词: 水资源, 空间分析, 协整方程, 农作物水足迹, 滞后期, 新疆

Abstract:

The spatial relationship between water and economy is the hot spot of water resources research in arid and semiarid areas.It reveals the evolution law and causality of the spatial distribution of water versus economy which can provide theoretical and decisionmaking reference for optimizing the rational allocation of water resources and rationally adjusting industrial structure policies.In this paper,the water footprint theory was used to calculate the crop water footprints in various prefectures in Xinjiang,China from 1991 to 2015,and based on this,the spatial evolution law and the relationship between the crop water footprint and the economy were analyzed in combination with the value added of the first industry,the gross domestic product and the entropy of the crops using the information entropy theory.The results show that the spatial evolution between the water footprint of the crops and the value added of the first industry and GDP demonstrated a balanced and wellorganized trend with a gradually deflating spatial disequilibrium of water versus economy.The crop water footprint in Xinjiang has a significant influence on the spatial evolution of the value added of the first industry with an influencing period being 1 to 5 years.The spatial distribution of agricultural economy is restricted chronically by the spatial distribution of agricultural water resources.There is no causal relationship between the water footprint of crops and the GDP.The economic development in Xinjiang is turning to the second industry and the tertiary industry for a development transformation,and the agricultural economy no longer significantly affects the economic development in Xinjiang.

Key words: water resources, spatial analysis, cointegration equation, crop water footprint, lag period, Xinjiang

王杰, 龙爱华, 杨广, 邓晓雅, 张沛, 海洋, 李扬. 近25 a来新疆农作物水足迹与经济增长的空间关系分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(3): 526-533.

WANG Jie, LONG Aihua, YANG Guang, DENG Xiaoya, ZHANG Pei, HAI Yang, LI Yang.

Spatial relationship between crops water footprint and economic growth in Xinjiang in recent 25 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 526-533.

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近25 a来新疆农作物水足迹与经济增长的空间关系分析

Spatial relationship between crops water footprint and economic growth in Xinjiang in recent 25 years

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