博斯腾湖流域潜在蒸散发时空演变及归因分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.01.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本研究采用博斯腾湖流域1970—2014年的气象站点数据及Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散发（ET0），对比分析了流域山区和平原区ET0的时空变化及对主要气象因子的不同影响。结果表明：1）在年际尺度上，山区ET0在1970—2000年整体呈波动下降的趋势（P<0.01），2000年开始，ET0呈现略微上升的趋势；平原区ET0在1970—1993年间以-77 mm/10a的速率呈减小的趋势（P<0.01），1993年之后逆转为以83.8 mm/10a的速率呈上升趋势（P<0.01），平原区的变化明显强于山区。2）季节上呈现夏季为流域ET0最高的季节，是年变化的主要贡献者；而变化趋势则表现为平原区春季和夏季ET0大于山区，秋季和冬季略小于山区。3）ET0变化对净辐射和风速最为敏感，同时，山区净辐射和风速对ET0变化的贡献率最大，平原区影响ET0变化的主导因素是风速，风速对ET0的贡献率均超过50%。

关键词: 博斯腾湖流域, 潜在蒸散发, 敏感性分析, 贡献率

Abstract: Evapotranspiration is the most important part of the watershed hydrologic cycle. Analysis of the sensitivity of ET0 to meteorological factors is helpful to understand the water cycle process of the basin, and also is important to the optimal allocation of water resources. Based on the meteorological data of 9 meteorological stations in the Bosten Lake Basin from 1970 to 2014, this study calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution of potential evapotranspiration by using improved Penman-Monteith formula, and the sensitivities of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration to the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed,net radiation, relative humidity, and vapor pressure were analyzed. In addition, this study calculated the contribution of major meteorological factors to ET0. The results showed that: (1) At the interannual scale, ET0 in the mountainous region showed a significant reduction trend during the period from 1970 to 2000 (P <0.01), but since 2000, ET0 showed a slightly upward trend. ET0 in the plain region presented a significant decreasing trend (P <0.01) at a rate of -77 mm·(10a)-1 in the time period from 1970 to 1993, however, since 1993, the tendency was reversed to an upward tendency at a rate of 83.8 mm·(10a)-1 (P <0.01). The rangeability of ET0 in the plain oasis region was stronger than that in the mountainous areas. (2) At the seasonal scale, ET0 was the highest in summer followed by the spring and autumn, and ET0 in winter was the least. ET0 reached the highest in June and lowest in Janaury at the monthly scale, and had a greater dispersion from May to August, which indicated that ET0 changed intensively in this period. (3) Wind speed and net radiation were the most sensitive variable to ET0 in the Bosten Lake Basin, but the relative change rate of net radiation was small. (4) The contribution of net radiation and wind speed on ET0 changes were the largest in the mountainous region; and the wind speed was the dominant factor in the plain, which contributed more than 50% to ET0. The analysis of the contribution of meteorological factors on potential evapotranspiration in Bosten Lake Basin can provide scientific basis for water resources allocation and downstream ecological restoration.

钟巧，焦黎，李稚，焦伟，陈亚宁. 博斯腾湖流域潜在蒸散发时空演变及归因分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(1): 103-112.

ZHONG Qiao, JIAO Li, LI Zhi, JIAO Wei, CHEN Ya-ning. Spatial and temporal changes of potential evapotranspiration and its attribution in the Bosten Lake Basin[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(1): 103-112.

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