新疆县域土地利用碳收支平衡与碳补偿分区研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.210

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新疆作为我国关键资源富集区域，在“双碳”战略背景下承受资源开发、生态保护、碳减排的3重压力。科学解析土地利用碳收支及碳平衡分区机制，可为区域低碳土地利用优化提供理论依据。以新疆96个县域为研究对象，核算2000—2023年县域碳收支总量、碳平衡生态承载率（ESC）与碳平衡经济贡献率（ECC），采用社会网络分析法解析碳排放空间关联网络特征，构建碳收支平衡导向的碳平衡分区框架；最终通过空间叠置分析法耦合县域碳平衡分区与主体功能区划，实现多准则决策下的碳补偿区划。结果表明：（1）研究区碳排放与碳吸收呈显著扩大态势，总量由2000年60.28×10⁶ t增至2023年677.81×10⁶ t，形成以核心城市为极点的“核心-外围”空间结构；2000—2020年碳吸收量呈微弱上升趋势，2020年后显著衰减，空间分布与碳排放呈逆向格局。（2） 2000—2023年ESC持续衰减，ECC呈现显著空间异质性。（3）碳排放空间关联网络具有高密度（0.877）与多中心离散性，核心节点接收主要碳流。（4）全区划分为低碳优化区（12）、高碳管控区（25）、生态保育区（22）、碳汇核心区（37），叠加主体功能区形成10类碳补偿区。新疆在“双碳”目标下存在经济增长与生态保护的深层冲突，需依托空间差异化治理、区域协同减排及生态补偿机制推动可持续发展。

关键词: 新疆县域, 碳收支平衡, 碳补偿分区, 主体功能区, 社会网络分析

Abstract:

Xinjiang, a resource-rich region in China, faces interconnected challenges under the “Dual Carbon” strategy: Resource exploitation, ecological conservation, and carbon emission reduction. Analyzing land-use carbon budgets and their balancing mechanisms provides a theoretical basis for optimizing regional low-carbon land use. This study quantified county-level carbon budgets from 2000 to 2023, including carbon absorption, carbon emissions, the ecological support coefficient (ESC), and the economic contribution coefficient (ECC), across 96 counties in Xinjiang. Social network analysis was employed to characterize spatial correlations of carbon emissions, and a carbon-balance-oriented zoning framework was developed. Spatial overlay analysis integrated carbon balance zoning with major functional zoning to delineate carbon compensation zones. Key findings include: (1) A growing disparity between carbon emissions (surging from 60.28×10⁶ t to 677.81×10⁶ t) and absorption, forming a core-periphery spatial structure radiating from urban hubs; post-2020, carbon absorption declined significantly, displaying an inverse spatial pattern to emissions. (2) ESC exhibited persistent decline from 2000 to 2023, while ECC showed marked spatial heterogeneity. (3) The carbon emission network demonstrated high density (0.877) and polycentric dispersion, with core nodes dominating carbon flows. (4) Four functional zones were identified: Low-carbon optimization zones (12), high-carbon control zones (25), ecological conservation zones (22), and carbon sequestration core zones (37). Overlaying these with major functional zoning yielded 10 carbon compensation zones. To address socio-ecological conflicts in achieving carbon neutrality, Xinjiang requires spatially differentiated governance, regional collaborative emission reduction, and ecological compensation mechanisms.

Key words: Xinjiang counties, carbon budget balance, carbon compensation zoning, major function-oriented zones, social network analysis

施秀娟, 王志强. 新疆县域土地利用碳收支平衡与碳补偿分区研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(12): 2183-2196.

SHI Xiujuan, WANG Zhiqiang. Carbon budget balance and carbon compensation zoning of land use in Xinjiang’s counties[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(12): 2183-2196.

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编号	县（区）	编号	县（区）	编号	县（区）	编号	县（区）	编号	县（区）
1	天山区	21	呼图壁县	40	温宿县	59	麦盖提县	78	巩留县
2	沙依巴克区	22	玛纳斯县	41	库车市	60	岳普湖县	79	新源县
3	新市区	23	奇台县	42	沙雅县	61	伽师县	80	昭苏县
4	水磨沟区	24	吉木萨尔县	43	新和县	62	巴楚县	81	特克斯县
5	头屯河区	25	木垒哈萨克自治县	44	拜城县	63	塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县	82	尼勒克县
6	达坂城区	26	博乐市	45	乌什县	64	和田市	83	塔城市
7	米东区	27	阿拉山口市	46	阿瓦提县	65	和田县	84	乌苏市
8	乌鲁木齐县	28	精河县	47	柯坪县	66	墨玉县	85	额敏县
9	独山子区	29	温泉县	48	阿图什市	67	皮山县	86	沙湾市
10	克拉玛依区	30	库尔勒市	49	阿克陶县	68	洛浦县	87	托里县
11	白碱滩区	31	轮台县	50	阿合奇县	69	策勒县	88	裕民县
12	乌尔禾区	32	尉犁县	51	乌恰县	70	于田县	89	和布克赛尔蒙古自治县
13	高昌区	33	若羌县	52	喀什市	71	民丰县	90	阿勒泰市
14	鄯善县	34	且末县	53	疏附县	72	伊宁市	91	布尔津县
15	托克逊县	35	焉耆回族自治县	54	疏勒县	73	奎屯市	92	富蕴县
16	伊州区	36	和静县	55	英吉沙县	74	霍尔果斯市	93	福海县
17	巴里坤哈萨克自治县	37	和硕县	56	泽普县	75	伊宁县	94	哈巴河县
18	伊吾县	38	博湖县	57	莎车县	76	察布查尔锡伯自治县	95	青河县
19	昌吉市	39	阿克苏市	58	叶城县	77	霍城县	96	吉木乃县
20	阜康市

土地利用类型	${C}_{{i}_{\_\mathrm{a}\mathrm{b}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{v}\mathrm{e}}}$	${C}_{{i}_{\_\mathrm{b}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{w}}}$	${C}_{{i}_{\_\mathrm{s}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{l}}}$	${C}_{{i}_{\_\mathrm{d}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{d}}}$
耕地	1.96	6.83	59.32	0.65
林地	27.52	11.62	92.67	4.54
草地	2.98	6.74	55.07	1.26
水域	1.45	0.66	0.00	0.00
建设用地	2.59	2.11	0.00	0.00
未利用地	1.19	1.26	26.24	0.00

板块	分类	关键特征
板块1	净受益板块	内部密度极高，依赖外部资源输入
板块2	净受益板块	内部高度封闭，流入略高于流出
板块3	净溢出板块	内部松散，资源单向向外输出
板块4	经纪人板块	连接板块1和板块2，控制关键资源流动路径

区域类型	区域划分依据	空间功能特征
低碳优化区	ECC<1，ESC<1，CA_i<C_i	呈“高排放-低效益”特征：碳排放总量与经济产出效率倒挂，生态本底脆弱性显著，是网络中的“净溢出板块”
高碳管控区	ECC>1，ESC<1，CA_i<C_i	呈“高排放-高增长”特征：能源密集型产业集聚，生态赤字持续扩大，是网络中的“经纪人板块”
生态保育区	ECC<1，ESC>1，CA_i<C_i	呈“低经济-高生态”特征：碳汇经济转化效率不足，生态系统服务价值突出，是网络中的弱“净受益板块”
碳汇核心区	ECC<1，ESC>1，CA_i>C_i	呈“强碳汇-稳生态”特征：自然碳库储量优势显著，碳抵消贡献度突出，是网络中的强“净受益板块”