新疆农业水资源绿色效率时空演变及影响因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.577

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过对农业面源污染、农业净碳汇等变量测算构建指标体系，采用超效率SBM模型、Malmquist指数模型方法计算2011—2020年新疆14个行政区农业水资源绿色效率值及其分解指数值，绘制标准差椭圆并构建马尔科夫链概率矩阵分析其空间格局变化，并用Tobit模型分析其影响因素。结果表明：（1）新疆各地州研究期内农业水资源绿色效率均值为0.865；各地区农业水资源绿色效率水平、提升效果及速度存在明显差异。（2）研究期内重心坐标始终在巴音郭楞蒙古自治州和静县巴音布鲁克镇内移动，先向东北移动后西南最终又向东北方向折回；较低、较高、高效率类型地区之间具有相互转移或跨类型转移的概率，低效率地区难以快速或跨类型增长。（3）经济发展水平、农业经济、供水结构对农业水资源绿色效率有显著的正向影响，资源禀赋与节水设施对农业水资源效率有显著的负向影响。研究结果对新疆农业水资源可持续利用、建设绿色高效农业具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 农业水资源绿色效率, 超效率SBM模型, Malmquist指数模型, 空间演变, 马尔科夫链, Tobit模型

Abstract:

An index system was developed by measuring variables such as agricultural surface source pollution and agricultural net carbon sinks. Super-efficiency SBM and Malmquist index methods were used to calculate the green efficiency values of agricultural water resources and their decomposition index values in 14 administrative regions of Xinjiang, China, from 2011 to 2020. Standard deviation ellipses were drawn to analyze the movement of centers of efficiency, and a Markov chain probability matrix was constructed to analyze their spatial pattern of changes. The Tobit model was also used to analyze its impact on the green efficiency of agricultural water resources in Xinjiang in terms of cropping structure, agricultural economy, water supply structure, water conservation facilities, urbanization level, resource endowment, and economic development level. The results show the following: (1) The average value of green efficiency of agricultural water resources during the study period in each administrative region of Xinjiang is 0.865; there are obvious differences in the level, improvement effect, and speed of the green efficiency of agricultural water resources in each region. (2) The coordinates of the center of gravity during the study period always moved within Bayinbuluk Town, Hejing County, Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, first to the northeast and then to the southwest, and eventually turned back to the northeast; there is a probability of transferring to each other or across types between lower, higher, and high green efficiency types of the regions, and it is difficult for inefficient regions to grow rapidly or across types. (3) The levels of economic development, agricultural economy, and water supply structure have a significant positive impact on the green efficiency of agricultural water resources, and resource endowment and water conservation facilities have a significant negative impact on the efficiency of agricultural water resources. The results of this study are of great practical significance for the sustainable use of agricultural water resources and the construction of green and efficient agriculture in Xinjiang.

Key words: agricultural green water resource efficiency, super-efficient SBM model, Malmquist index model, spatial evolution, Markov chain, Tobit model

褚家琦, 蒋志辉. 新疆农业水资源绿色效率时空演变及影响因素研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(7): 1231-1241.

CHU Jiaqi, JIANG Zhihui. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of green efficiency of agricultural water resources in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(7): 1231-1241.

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准则层	指标层	计算方式
种植结构	粮食播种面积占比/%	粮食播种面积/农作物播种面积
农业经济	第一产业增加值占比/%	第一产业增加值占比
供水结构	地下水供水量占比/%	地下水供水量/供水总量
节水设施	人均节水灌溉面积/10³hm²·人^-1	节水灌溉面积/乡村人口
城镇化水平	城镇人口数量占比/%	城镇人口/总人口
资源禀赋	人均水资源量/10⁴m³·人^-1	水资源总量/总人口
经济发展水平	人均GDP/10⁴元·人^-1	生产总值/总人口

地区		2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	平均值
北疆	乌鲁木齐市	0.950	1.001	1.008	0.967	1.002	1.001	0.961	1.015	1.017	1.019	0.994
	克拉玛依市	1.000	1.030	1.012	1.017	1.001	1.000	0.926	0.911	1.037	1.008	0.994
	昌吉州	0.899	1.014	1.019	1.026	0.756	0.736	1.001	1.001	1.045	1.020	0.952
	伊犁州直	0.616	0.684	0.793	1.007	1.016	1.012	1.073	0.837	1.008	1.014	0.906
	塔城地区	1.027	1.003	0.848	1.071	1.017	1.002	1.035	0.935	1.002	1.004	0.994
	阿勒泰地区	0.578	0.585	0.585	0.582	0.576	0.558	0.546	0.554	0.576	0.588	0.573
	博州	1.001	1.004	1.014	1.018	1.020	0.919	1.002	0.920	0.960	0.951	0.981
	平均值	0.868	0.903	0.897	0.955	0.913	0.890	0.935	0.882	0.949	0.943	0.914
南疆	克州	0.711	0.733	0.733	0.743	0.799	1.001	0.729	0.703	0.720	0.684	0.755
	和田地区	1.000	0.622	0.618	0.621	0.616	0.592	0.659	0.637	0.637	0.591	0.659
	喀什地区	1.013	0.813	0.654	1.040	0.968	1.012	1.056	0.887	1.015	1.021	0.948
	巴州	0.900	1.016	1.007	1.035	1.000	1.013	1.057	0.939	0.960	1.025	0.995
	阿克苏地区	0.617	0.661	0.636	0.771	0.804	0.818	1.044	0.905	0.901	1.013	0.817
	平均值	0.848	0.769	0.729	0.842	0.837	0.887	0.909	0.814	0.846	0.867	0.835
东疆	吐鲁番市	0.944	1.005	0.957	1.027	1.003	1.007	0.959	1.023	1.050	1.015	0.999
	哈密市	0.849	0.932	0.921	0.899	0.876	0.879	0.931	0.906	1.002	1.001	0.920
	平均值	0.896	0.968	0.939	0.963	0.940	0.943	0.945	0.964	1.026	1.008	0.959
平均		0.865	0.864	0.843	0.916	0.890	0.896	0.927	0.869	0.924	0.925	0.865

年份	效率类型	低	较低	较高	高
2011—2015	低	0.750	0.188	0.000	0.063
	较低	0.077	0.462	0.231	0.231
	较高	0.077	0.077	0.385	0.462
	高	0.000	0.143	0.500	0.357
2016—2020	低	0.733	0.067	0.133	0.067
	较低	0.000	0.438	0.250	0.313
	较高	0.077	0.231	0.308	0.385
	高	0.083	0.333	0.083	0.500
2011—2020	低	0.844	0.094	0.031	0.031
	较低	0.029	0.412	0.235	0.324
	较高	0.063	0.219	0.375	0.344
	高	0.036	0.214	0.357	0.393

解释变量	系数	标准误	T统计量	P值
经济发展水平	0.028	0.009	3.29	0.001^***
资源禀赋	-0.101	0.050	-1.99	0.048^**
农业经济比重	0.462	0.195	2.37	0.019^**
供水结构	0.194	0.109	1.77	0.078^*
节水设施	-0.187	0.095	-1.97	0.051^*
城镇化水平	0.031	0.102	0.31	0.760
种植结构	-0.030	0.120	-0.25	0.801
常数项	0.663	0.091	7.27	0.000^***