“东西”还是“南北”降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展差距大?

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.588

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

区域发展不均衡正制约着降碳-减污-扩绿-增长的协同推进，阻碍中国式现代化进程中经济发展与环境保护的共生发展。基于东西部和南北方双重视角，运用Dagum基尼系数对中国30个省域2015—2023年降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展差距进行测算与地区分解，并采用二次指派程序（QAP）分析探究区域协同发展差异的影响因素。结果表明：（1）中国地区降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展差距整体小幅波动下降，东西部和南北方协同发展差距的主因分别为地区间差距和地区内差距。（2）从区域降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展差距来看，其程度由高到低依次为北方、东部、南方、西部和中部。（3）东西部地区降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展差距大于南北方，但其差距缩小速度更快，“南北”地区差距正逐步接近“东西”地区。（4）降碳-减污-扩绿-增长的协同推进效果受多重因素影响，且各因素的边际效应在不同时空条件下呈现差异化特征。数字经济发展水平、绿色创新水平和科技投入水平是主要因素，数字经济发展水平和绿色创新水平对地区差距的影响呈现波动上升趋势，科技投入水平的影响较为稳定。

关键词: 降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展, QAP分析, Dagum基尼系数, 地区差距

Abstract:

Regional development imbalances constrain the synergistic advancement of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth, thereby hindering the symbiotic relationship between the economy and the environment in the process of Chinese modernization. From the dual perspectives of eastern-western and northern-southern regional divisions, this study measures and decomposes disparities in the synergistic development of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth across 30 Chinese provinces from 2015 to 2023 using the Dagum Gini coefficient. The QAP method is employed to examine the factors driving these regional disparities. The results indicate that (1) The overall disparity in regional synergistic development exhibits a slight but fluctuating decline. Inter-regional and intra-regional differences are the primary contributors to the development gaps between the eastern-western and northern-southern regions. (2) In terms of disparity magnitude, regions rank from highest to lowest as follows: North, east, south, west, and central. (3) The disparity between the eastern and western regions exceeds that between the northern and southern regions; however, the eastern-western gap is narrowing more rapidly, while the northern-southern gap is gradually approaching the scale of the eastern-western gap. (4) The effectiveness of synergistic advancement is shaped by multiple factors, whose marginal effects vary across spatiotemporal contexts. The levels of digital economy development, green innovation capability, and science and technology investment are the primary drivers of regional disparities. The impacts of digital economy development and green innovation capability exhibit a fluctuating upward trend, whereas the effect of science and technology investment remains relatively stable.

Key words: collaborative development of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth, QAP analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, regional disparities

刘玒玒, 张文彬. “东西”还是“南北”降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展差距大?[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(4): 769-777.

LIU Honghong, ZHANG Wenbin. Where is the big gap of the coordinated development of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth in China? The east and the west or the north and the south[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(4): 769-777.

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目标层	指标层	指标说明	单位	指标属性
降碳	CO₂强度	CO₂排放量/GDP	t·(10⁴元)^-1	-
	人均CO₂排放量	CO₂排放量/总人口	t·人^-1	-
	能源结构	煤炭消费量/能源消费量	%	-
减污	工业SO₂排放量	工业SO₂排放量	10⁴ t	-
	工业废水排放量	工业废水排放总量	10⁴ t	-
	工业烟尘排放量	工业烟尘排放量	10⁴ t	-
	氮氧化物排放量	氮氧化物排放量	10⁴ t	-
	农用化肥使用量	农业化肥使用量	10⁴ t	-
	PM_2.5浓度	逐年PM_2.5浓度	g·m^-3	-
扩绿	绿色金融发展水平	贾洪文等^[26]	%	+
	人均公园绿地面积	公园绿地面积/总人口	hm²·(10⁴人)^-1	+
	人均造林面积	造林面积/总人口	hm²·(10⁴人)^-1	+
	建成区绿化覆盖率	建成区所有植被的垂直投影面积/建成面积	%	+
	森林覆盖率	-	%	+
增长	城镇化率	城市人口/总人口	%	+
	人均GDP	GDP/总人口	元·人^-1	+
	GDP增长率	[（当期的不变价GDP/上年同期同基期不变价GDP）-1]×100%	%	+
	居民消费水平	社会零售总额/GDP	%	+
	居民人均可支配收入增速	（报告期人均可支配收入-基期人均可支配收入）/基期人均可支配收入‌	%	+

变量	四者协同发展水平	绿色创新水平	公共环境关注度	科技投入水平	产业集聚水平	数字经济发展水平	环境规制强度
四者协同发展水平	1.000^***	0.112	0.325^***	0.399^***	0.349^***	0.231^**	-0.088
绿色创新水平	0.112	1.000^***	0.570^***	0.393^**	0.119	0.914^***	-0.007
公共环境关注度	0.325^***	0.570^***	1.000^***	0.338^**	0.387^**	0.651^***	0.070
科技投入水平	0.399^***	0.393^**	0.338^**	1.000^***	0.183^*	0.439^**	-0.052
产业集聚水平	0.349^***	0.119	0.387^**	0.183^*	1.000^***	0.159	-0.140^**
数字经济发展水平	0.231^**	0.914^***	0.651^***	0.439^**	0.159	1.000^***	0.006
环境规制强度	-0.088	-0.007	0.070	-0.052	-0.140^**	0.006	1.000^***

变量	全国	东部	中部	西部	北方	南方
绿色创新水平	0.331^***	0.436^***	0.239^**	0.330^*	0.176^*	0.280^**
公共环境关注度	0.152^*	0.183^**	0.161^*	0.368	0.029	0.131^*
科技投入水平	0.320^***	0.232^*	0.140	0.321^**	0.773^***	0.281^**
产业集聚水平	0.216^***	0.113	-0.106	-0.226^**	0.153^***	0.219
数字经济发展水平	0.443^**	0.248^***	0.141^**	0.110^*	0.210^**	0.315^***
环境规制强度	-0.058	0.090	0.525^**	-0.021	0.018	-0.068
调整R²	0.695	0.679	0.618	0.525	0.756	0.725
样本数	870	110	72	90	210	210