中塔帕米尔公路沿线地区冰川灾害暴露度评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.479

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (7): 1167-1175.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.479 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024479

中塔帕米尔公路沿线地区冰川灾害暴露度评估

李志杰¹^,²(), 王宁练³^,⁴^,⁵(), 张玉杰³^,⁴, 李继彦¹^,²

1.太原师范学院地理科学学院，山西太原 030619
2.汾河流域地表过程与资源生态安全山西省重点实验室，山西太原 030619
3.西北大学城市与环境学院地表系统与灾害研究院，陕西西安 710127
4.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西西安 710127
5.中国科学院青藏高原研究所，北京 100101

收稿日期:2024-08-10 修回日期:2024-09-30 出版日期:2025-07-25 发布日期:2025-07-04
通讯作者: 王宁练（1966-），男，博士，教授，主要从事冰冻圈与全球变化研究. E-mail: nlwang@nwu.edu.cn
作者简介:李志杰（1995-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事冰川变化与冰川灾害研究. E-mail: lizhijie820@tynu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130516)

Assessment of glacier disaster exposure in the areas along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway

LI Zhijie¹^,²(), WANG Ninglian³^,⁴^,⁵(), ZHANG Yujie³^,⁴, LI Jiyan¹^,²

1. School of Geographic Sciences, Taiyuan Normal University, Taiyuan 030619, Shanxi, China
2. Shanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Security in Fenhe River Basin, Taiyuan 030619, Shanxi, China
3. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
4. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
5. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2024-08-10 Revised:2024-09-30 Published:2025-07-25 Online:2025-07-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于遥感和GIS技术，获取2000—2021年中塔公路沿线地区冰川变化与冰川灾害时空分布特征，并利用极差变换法和熵权法开展了冰川灾害暴露度评估。结果表明：（1） 2000年以来，中塔公路沿线地区冰川面积萎缩速率为0.20%·a^-1±0.06%·a^-1，物质平衡为-0.25±0.04 m w.e.·a^-1，1992年以来的冰湖面积扩张速率为0.45%·a^-1，均为帕米尔高原整体水平的数倍。（2）冰川不稳定性的增强直接导致中塔公路沿线地区冰川灾害风险普遍凸显，其中灾害发生的中高风险区域主要集中在公路西段。（3）中塔公路沿线地区冰川灾害暴露度宏观格局主要与致灾因子和承灾体分布密度、地形与地质环境复杂程度，以及气候暖湿化趋势的空间差异等因素有关。研究结果初步揭示了中塔公路沿线地区冰川灾害暴露度的宏观格局，可为灾害脆弱性、影响力和情景预测研究等提供参考。

关键词: 冰川灾害, 暴露度评估, 中塔公路, 帕米尔高原

Abstract:

Using remote sensing and GIS methods, this study reconstructs the spatiotemporal patterns of glacier changes and hazards along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway from 2000 to 2021. We conducted a glacier hazard exposure assessment using both the range transformation and entropy weight methods. The results reveal the following. (1) Since 2000, the glacier area shrinkage rate along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway has been 0.20%·a^-1±0.06%·a^-1, with a mass balance of -0.25±0.04 m w.e.·a^-1. In addition, the glacial lake area has expanded at a rate of 0.45%·a^-1 since 1992, all of which are several times greater than the overall levels observed in the entire Pamirs. (2) The increasing instability of glaciers has directly contributed to a widespread risk of glacier disasters along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway, with medium and high-risk areas primarily concentrated in the western section of the highway. (3) The spatial pattern of glacier disaster exposure along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway is largely influenced by factors such as the distribution density of disaster-causing elements and disaster-bearing bodies, the complexity of the terrain and geological environment, as well as spatial variations in climate change. This study elucidates the overarching pattern of glacier hazard exposure in the areas along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway, offering valuable insights for research on hazard vulnerability, impact, and prediction.

Key words: glacier disaster, exposure assessment, China-Tajikistan Pamir highway, Pamirs

李志杰, 王宁练, 张玉杰, 李继彦. 中塔帕米尔公路沿线地区冰川灾害暴露度评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(7): 1167-1175.

LI Zhijie, WANG Ninglian, ZHANG Yujie, LI Jiyan. Assessment of glacier disaster exposure in the areas along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1167-1175.

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影像编号	获取日期（年-月-日）	空间分辨率/m	用途
LT51490341998225XXX01	1998-08-13	30	冰川编目制备
LE71500342000246SGS01	2000-09-02	15	冰川编目制备
LE71510342000237SGS00	2000-08-24	15	冰川编目制备
LE71510342002242SGS00	2002-08-30	15	冰川编目制备
LE81510342006253PFS01	2006-09-10	15	跃动冰川识别
LC81510342018246LGN00	2018-09-03	15	跃动冰川识别
LC81500332020229LGN00	2020-08-16	15	冰川编目制备
LC81490342021272LGN00	2021-09-29	15	冰川编目制备
LC81500342020229LGN00	2020-08-16	15	冰川编目制备
LC81510342021270LGN00	2021-09-27	15	冰川编目制备
LC81510342023260LGN00	2023-09-17	15	跃动冰川识别

指标	说明
冰川面积占比/%	冰川分布范围越大，灾害风险越高
冰川面积变化/%·a^-1	冰川退缩越显著，灾害风险越髙
冰川物质平衡/m w.e.·a^-1	物质亏损越严重，灾害风险越高
冰湖面积占比/%	冰湖分布范围越大，灾害风险越高
面积超过0.1 km²的冰湖数量/个	大型冰湖数量越多，溃决风险越高
冰川表面坡度/(°)	坡度越大，冰雪崩、滑坡等灾害风险越高
泥石流沟谷坡度/(°)	坡度越大，灾害风险越高
10 km缓冲区内5级以上地震次数/次	数量越多，次生地质灾害风险越高

中塔帕米尔公路沿线地区冰川灾害暴露度评估

Assessment of glacier disaster exposure in the areas along the China-Tajikistan Pamir highway

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