自主探索还是追随前沿?——中国高技术出口产业地理演化路径辨析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.04.23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 演化经济地理学认为,地方产业演化是路径依赖的,新的产业从本地现有关联产业中衍生出来。这个理论以地方具备同等优势的创造能力为前提,而创造能力本身对地方条件有着较高的要求。现实条件下,发展中地区开发先进工业,相比依赖本地现有产业基础自主创造的发展路径,紧密跟随并积极参与发达经济体开辟的先进制造业产品市场、主动吸收知识溢出、进行学习合作型创造或是一条更可行的道路。以2000—2015年中国561个海关报关国内地区代码划分的地区行政单元高技术出口产业地理演化为研究对象,验证了这一假设。结论显示：本地技术关联水平对地方高技术产业地理演化主要在近期产生影响,进口产品的知识溢出表现出中长期的促进作用,且地方技术水平的差异对地方利用知识溢出效果并无显著影响。这一结论证明发展中地区可以通过紧随前沿、学习合作打破本地路径锁定,实现路径跳跃。

关键词: 产业演化, 进口, 出口, 缄默知识, 知识溢出, 高技术产品

Abstract: In order to promote the growth of local industries and the upgrading of industrial structures,some scholars have advocated for the localization of economies,while others have advocated for a diversification of the development paths. In recent years,evolutionary economic geographers have focused on the positive effects of related diversification on local economic growths. However,the local specialization and related diversification development paths are both unfavorable for underdeveloped regions：they assume that a region lacking a related industrial base and a background for creativity has little chance of breaking the current path and introduce an advanced industry. The door to international trade has gradually opened,making it possible to break the existing path and achieve breakthroughs by closely following and actively participating in the advanced manufacturing product market opened up by developed economies,actively absorbing knowledge spillover,and creating through learning and cooperation. This paper discusses whether developing countries like China （which tend to learn from and directly imitate imported products,rather than evolve related industries from local existing ones） can successfully develop high-tech industries. Our study employed data from China’s customs and statistical yearbook databases collected between 1998 and 2015. The research methods included the creation of a map using ARCGIS and an econometric model analysis of PROBIT based on STATA. The results showed that,in the near to medium term,the level of local industry technological relatedness will still play a significant role in promoting the diversification of local high-tech export industries; however,in the medium to long term,the specialization level of local import products will have a more significant impact. The urban absorptive capacity seemed to have a steady promoting effect on the export of local high-tech products and to significantly reduce the dependence of cities on the technological relatedness level of the local industry,while the imitative learning effect of cities on imported products did not seem to be significantly limited by their absorption level. This demonstrates that the development of local products through the absorption of knowledge spillover from imported products does not depend much from the local industrial technical level: this kind of “leapfrog” development route is relatively easy to realize. Differently from previous ones,this study was based on an evolutionary economic geography theory,focusing from the macro-level of technological progress and total factor productivity to the micro-level of the four-digit codes of the product. Moreover,we assessed the influence of the local industry evolution and of the knowledge of specific products to be imported on China’s local high-tech products. Notably,the influence of cities’ absorbing capacity was compared with that of local independent research and the absorption of knowledge spillovers from imported products. Moreover,this study discusses a selection of developing countries,as well as their industrial transformation,upgrading path mode,and implementation background. Our results contrast with the endogenous growth theories based on evolutionary economic geography and international knowledge spillover;however,they complement the existing theoretical basis at the micro-level and further explain the heterogeneous absorptive capacities of two development modes in different cities and at different time stages. Finally,our results provide a theoretical and empirical support for local governments that wish to open up the local market and actively introduce advanced imported products,so to promote the upgrading of local industries and the development by leaps and bounds.

Key words: industrial evolution, import, export, tacit knowledge, knowledge spillover, high-tech products

刘洁敏, 贺灿飞. 自主探索还是追随前沿?——中国高技术出口产业地理演化路径辨析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4): 1077-1087.

LIU Jie-min, HE Can-fei. Innovating independently or following the frontier：Geographical evolution path of China’s high-tech export industry[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 1077-1087.

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