陇东短时强降水与冰雹天气对比分析及预报方法研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用2008-2014年短时强降水和冰雹资料建成样本, 通过对强对流天气诊断分析, 建立了陇东地区强对流天气概念模型, 归纳了两种强对流天气的物理量阈值, 并对阈值进行了检验. 结果表明: 切变线是产生陇东地区短时强降水和冰雹的主要低层影响系统, 低层700hPa有切变线产生短时强降水的个例比产生冰雹的个例多; 物理量参数如T_700-500、0℃、-20℃高度层、大气可降水量、700hPa比湿、K指数、θse500、θse700、0～6km垂直风切变在冰雹与短时强降水天气中存在明显差异, 可较好的区分两种强对流天气; 其阈值指标对陇东地区的强对流天气有较好的预报效果.

关键词: 强对流天气, 物理量参数, 对比分析, 预报预警指标

Abstract: In order to improve the ability to cope with meteorological disasters, the study of short-term heavy rain and hail weather forecast and early warning method must be further carried out. The mathematical statistics and cumulative frequency method are used in the paper. Statistical diagnosis contrast analysis is developed on the basis of the circulation background of short-time strong rainfall and hail weather during 2008-2014, as well as physical parameters. Strong convective weather conceptual model is built for the southeast of Gansu Province, China. The similarities and distinctions as well as physical parameters of the two kinds of strong convective weather are finally obtained: the shear line in the low troposphere impact system plays an important role in the short-time heavy rainfall and hail of the east of Gansu. It is much more likely to have short-time heavy rainfall than hail in lower atmosphere of 700 hPa with shear line. There is an obvious distinction between hail and short-time heavy rainfall in the physical parameters such as △T_700-500, the heights of 0℃ and -20℃, atmospheric precipitable water, 700hPa specific humidity, K index、θse500、θse700、0-6km vertical wind shear. The threshold is also obtained which is beneficial to the better distinguishing of the weathers. The innovations of the paper are that the circulation background of the short-time strong rainfall and hail and physical conditions of variance analysis are contributed to distinguish strong weather types. Tested results indicate that forecast indicators play an active role in the weather prediction in the southeast of Gansu Province, as to the difference of the proximity warning of the two kinds of strong convective weathers, the further studies should be carried out in future.

Key words: severe eonveetive weathe, convective parameter, comparative analysis, forecast warning indicators

中图分类号:

P457.6

路亚奇, 焦美龄, 李祥科, 杨丽杰. 陇东短时强降水与冰雹天气对比分析及预报方法研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(2): 317-326.

LU Ya-qi, JIAO Mei-ling, LI Xiang-ke, YANG Li-jie. Comparative analysis and forecasting model research of short-time heavy rainfall and hail in east Gansu Province[J]. , 2016, 39(2): 317-326.

参考文献

[1] 朱乾根, 林锦瑞, 寿绍文, 等. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2000: 194-198, 320-343, 375-381.[ZHU Qiangen, LIN Jinrui, SHOU Shaowen, et al. Weather principles and methods[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2000: 194-198, 320-343, 375-381.]

[2] 西北暴雨编写组. 西北暴雨[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1992: 1-84.[Northwest rainstorm writing group. Northwest rainstorm[M]. Beijing; China Meteorological Press, 1992: 1-84.]

[3] 刘波, 肖子牛. 1961-2005 年新疆区域分级雨日(量)的气候特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2011, 34(3): 419-428.[LIU Bo, XIAO Ziniu. Climatic features of graded rain in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2005[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2011, 34(3); 419-428.]

[4] 付双喜, 何金梅. 甘肃短时强降水天气若干环境参数特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38(3); 469-477.[FU Shuangxi, HE Jinmei. Short-time heavy precipitation characteristics of several environmental parameters of Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015, 38(3): 469-477.]

[5] 刘引鸽, 葛永刚, 周旗. 秦岭以南地区降水量变化及其灾害效应研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2008, 31(1): 50-55.[LIU Yinge, GE Yonggang, ZHOU Qi. Precipitation changes and calamity effectsat the southern regions of the Qinling Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2008, 31(1): 50-55.]

[6] 周顺武, 王传辉, 吴萍, 等. 青藏高原强降水日数的时空分布特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35(1): 23-31.[ZHOU Shunwu, WANG Chuanhui, WU Ping, et al. Temporal and spatial distribu-tion of strong precipitation days over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(1): 23-31.]

[7] 陈豫英, 冯建民, 陈楠, 等. 西北地区东部可利用降水的时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35(1): 56-66.[CHEN Yuying, FENG Jianmin, CHEN Nan, et al. Spatio-temporal variation char-acteristic of the utilizable precipitation in eastern part of North-west China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(1): 56-66.]

[8] 韩宁, 苗春生. 近6 年陕甘宁三省5-9月短时强降水统计特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(6): 691-701.[HAN Ning, MIAO Chunsheng. Statistical characteristics of short-time heavy preei pitationin Shan-Gan-Ning region from may to september in recent 6 years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2012, 23(6): 691-701.]

[9] 王若升, 张彤, 樊晓春, 等. 甘肃平凉地区冰雹天气的气候特征和雷达回波分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(2): 373-377.[WANG Ruoshen, ZHANG Tong, FAN Xiaochun, et al. Analysis of the climate features and radar echo of the hail weather in Pingliang of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31 (2): 373-377．]

[10] 蔡义勇, 王宏, 余永江. 福建省冰雹时空分布与天气气候特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(4): 43-48.[CAI Yiyong, WANG Hong, YU Yongjiang. Spatio-temporal distribution and weather characteristics of hail in Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18(4): 43-48.]

[11] 刘全根, 马骥德. 平凉地区的冰雹及其与环境场要素的关系[J]. 高原气象, 1982, 1(1): 53-62.[LIU Quangeng, MA Jide. Pingliang Area of hail and environmental field element relationship[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1982, 1(1): 53-62.]

[12] 俞小鼎. 短时强降水临近预报的思路与方法[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2013, 32(3): 202-209.[YU Xiaoding. Nowcasting thinking and method of flash heavy rain[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2013, 32(3): 202-209.]

[13] 郝莹, 姚叶青, 郑媛媛, 等. 短时强降水的多尺度分析及临近预警[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(8): 903-912.[HAO Ying, YAO Yeqing, ZHENG Yuanyuan, et al. Multi-Scale analysis and nowcasting of short-time heavy rainfall[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2012, 38 (8): 903-912.]

[14] 郑永光, 张小玲, 周庆亮, 等. 强对流天气短时临近预报业务技术进展与挑战[J]. 气象, 2010, 36(7): 33-42.[ZHENG Yongguang, ZHANG Xiaoling, ZHOU Qingliang, et al. Review on severe convective weather short-term forecasting and nowcasting[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2010, 36(7): 33-42.]

[15] 许东蓓, 刘杭, 孟丽霞, 等.“8.12”甘肃大暴雨特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2013, 36(2): 245-252.[XU Dongpei, LIU Kang, MENG Lixia, et al. Characteristics of heavy rainfall occurred 12 August 2010 in Gansu[J]. Arid Land Gography, 2013, 36(2): 245-252.]

[16] 方建刚, 白爱娟. 陕西春季干旱与多雨的环流特征对比分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2010, 33(3): 363-369.[FANG Jiangang, BAI Aijuan. Atmospheric circulation during the spring drought andrainy years in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2010, 33(3): 363-369.]

[17] 刘玉玲. 对流参数在强对流天气潜势预测中的作用[J]. 气象科技, 2003, 31(3): 147-151.[LIU Yuling. A study of severe convective parameters and their potential predictability to severe convective storms[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2003, 31(3): 147-151.]

[18] 叶爱芬, 伍志方, 肖伟军, 等. 对流有效位能在强对流预报中的应用研究[J]. 热带气象学报, 2006, 22(5): 484-490.[YE Aifen, WU Zhifang, XIAO Weijun, et al. A study of application of CAPE in sever convective weather prediction[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2006, 22(5): 84-490.]

[19] 章淹, 林宗鸿, 陈渭民, 等. 暴雨预报[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1990.71.[ZHANG Yan, LIN Zonghong, CHEN Weimin, et al. Rainstorm forecast[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1990.71.]

[20] 李德俊, 唐仁茂, 熊守权, 等. 强冰雹和短时强降水天气雷达特征及临近预警[J]. 气象, 2011, 37(4): 474-480.[LI Dejun, TANG Renmao, XIONG Shouquan, et al. Radar features and nowcasting of severe hail and short-time heavy rainfall[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2011, 37(4): 474-480.]

[21] 段鹤, 严华生, 马学文, 等. 滇南冰雹的预报预警方法研究[J]. 气象, 2014, 40(2): 174-185.[DUAN He, YAN Huasheng, MA Xuewen, et al. Study of the method for hail forecasting and warning in southern Yunnan[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2014, 40 (2): 174-185.]

[22] 仇娟娟, 何立富. 苏沪浙地区短时强降水与冰雹天气分布及物理量特征对比分析[J]. 气象, 2013, 39(5): 577-58.[QIU Juanjuan, HE Lifu. Comparative analysis on weather characteristics and convective parameters of torrential rain and hail in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2013, 39(5): 577-58.]

[23] 巢纪平, 周小平. 积云动力学[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1964.[CHAO Jiping, ZHOU Xiaoping. Cumulus dynamics[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1964.]

[24] 胡明宝, 肖文建. 风廓线雷达中风切变分析方法的初步研究[J]. 气象科学, 2010, 30(4): 510-515.[HU Mingbao, XIAO Wenjian. The preliminary study on analysis method of wind shear using wind profiler[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 2010, 30(4): 510-515.]

[25] 黄艳, 裴江文. 新疆喀什地区冰雹气候特征及大气环境背景分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2015, 32(3): 526-532.[HUANG Yan, PEI Jiangwen. Hail climate characteristics and atmospheric environment background in Kashi region, Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2015, 32(3): 526-532.]

[26] 赵俊荣, 杨景辉. 新疆天山北坡中部强对流天气预警模型及其应用[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2009, 37(17): 8054-8056.[ZHAO Junrong, YANG Jinghui. Strong convective weather early warning model and its application for the central north north slope of tianshan mountain in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2009, 37(17): 8054-8056.]