1470-1912年西北东部地区旱涝等级重建序列的特征及对比分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过收集整理西北地区东部1470-1912 年旱涝灾害历史文献资料,重新建立逐年旱涝等级序列.利用滑动平均、累计距平、滑动T检验和小波变换等方法,综合分析了443 a 间西北东部地区旱涝序列的变化特征.为验证本序列的可靠性,利用华山降水量重建序列和陇西地区干湿指数序列进行长期趋势对比分析,并将代表性省份石笋δ¹⁸O序列和重建旱涝等级序列进行对比验证.结果表明:(1)西北东部地区以旱灾为主,旱灾频繁且大旱、连旱严重.旱涝灾害具有明显的阶段性,大致可分为4 个阶段,分别为1470-1540 年、1541-1615 年、1616-1796 年和1797-1912 年,且可分为12 个明显的偏旱和偏涝时期.(2)在10 a 尺度上检测出旱涝变化存在12 个突变点,50 a尺度上存在5 个突变点.(3)重建序列存在较明显的周期变化的时间尺度是130~110 a、70~80 a、50~52 a 和28 a、10~15 a、5 a.28 a 左右时的周期振荡最强,为第1 主周期,第2、3、4 周期依次是15 a、73 a 和50 a.(4)根据对比分析,早涝重建序列和其他长降水量序列具有较高的一致性,与同期石笋氧同位素δ¹⁸O记录对应较好,间接证明了历史文献资料恢复历史时期气候变化的可靠性和可行性.

关键词: 西北东部地区, 旱涝等级序列, 突变检验, 小波变换, 对比分析

Abstract: In recent years,under the background of global climate anomalies,drought and flood disasters occurred frequently in China. The historical climate research is an important content of international Climate Variability and Predictability Program. In recent decades,some scientists had made great progress in reconstructing the sequences of drought and flood based on historical documentary files,however,most of these rebuild sequences of drought and flood were mainly concentrated in Eastern China. Due to lack of early data,there were few research and analysis of historical flood and drought in northwest China. Collecting and classifying the data of drought and flood disasters in the eastern Northwest China from 1470 to 1912,and according to the criterion of drought and flood grade,this paper reconstructed the sequence of drought and flood grade. The change characteristics of drought and flood disasters including the decade and century frequency,periodic and mutability,periodicity over the past 443 years in all the regions were analyzed by using the moving average,accumulative anomaly, moving t-test technique,and wavelet analysis. Finally,in order to test and verify the reliability of this sequence, regional long-term trend was analyzed by comparing the Huashan precipitation reconstructed sequences and D/F index in Longxi,and further compared drought and flood grade curve with the stable oxygen isotopic record both from typical provinces. Results showed that drought disasters took place frequently and seriously in the eastern Northwest China. The alternate phenomenon about drought and flood was obvious. Probability of drought and the partial drought were higher than flood disasters,and the probability of flood years was the lowest. The drought and flood disaster which had obvious phases features could be divided into four stages:1470-1540, 1541-1615,1616-1796 and 1797-1912. Based on the four stages,we could further divide them into twelve drought-partial or flood-partial periods. Using moving t-test technique,we found that there were 12 abrupt changes on decade scale and 5 abrupt changes on 50 years scale. The reconstructed sequences displayed a periodic variability in multiple scales,which were comparatively obvious on the timescale of 130-110 a,70-80 a,50-52 a and 28 a,10-15 a,5 a,especially on the timescale of 10-15 a and 28 a. The first four periodic oscillations,from high to low,were in 28 a,15 a,73 a and 5 a. According to the comparison analysis,reconstruction of drought and flood grade sequence has high consistency with other precipitation sequence,showing multiple similar trends that peaks and troughs appeared at the same time,and corresponds to stalagmites oxygen isotopes records during the same period. All these could be an indirect proof of reliability and feasibility of our recovered historical flood and drought grade sequence based on the historical document data. The results have important practical significance for the development of disaster prevention and mitigation measures in eastern Northwest China. The study will be very important to discover the changing rules of drought and flood disaster and make accurately forecast for the future climate.

Key words: eastern Northwest China, drought and flood grade sequence, mutation test, wavelet analysis, comparative analysis

中图分类号:

P467

毕硕本, 钱育君, 陈昌春, 李兴宇, 徐梦雅. 1470-1912年西北东部地区旱涝等级重建序列的特征及对比分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(1): 12-21.

BI Shuo-ben, QIAN Yu-jun, CHEN Chang-chun, LI Xing-yu, XU Meng-ya. Characteristics and comparative analysis of reconstructed drought/flood grade sequence in the eastern Northwest China from 1470 to 1912[J]. , 2016, 39(1): 12-21.

参考文献

[1] DUPLESSY J C,OVERPECK J. The PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection-providing paleoclimatic perspective needed to understand climate variability and predictability[R]. Coordinated research objectives of the IGBP and WCRP programs. Venice,Italy,1994.

[2] 聂高众,高建国. 21 世纪中国的自然灾害发展趋势—以地震和旱涝灾害为例[J]. 第四纪研究,2001,21(5):249-261.[NIE Gaozhong,GAO Jianguo. The natural disasters of China in the 21st century:earthquake,drought and flood[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2001,21(5):249-261.]

[3] IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007.

[4] 竺可桢. 中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究[J]. 中国科学 (B 辑),1973,(2):169-189.[ZHU Kezhen. The primary study of climate changes in China since the past 5 ka[J]. Science in China(Ser. B),1973,(2):169-189.]

[5] 王绍武,赵宗慈. 近五百年我国旱涝史料的分析[J]. 地理学报, 1979,34(4):329-341.[WANG Shaowu,ZHAO Zongci. Analyses of historical data set over China in the past 500 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,1979,34(4):329-341.]

[6] 张德二,刘传志,江剑民. 中国东部6 区域近1000 年干湿序列的重建和气候跃变分析[J]. 第四纪研究,1997,4(1):1-11. [ZHANG Deer,LIU Chuanzhi,JIANG Jianmin. Reconstruction of six regional day/wet series and their abrupt changes during the last 1 000 years in East China[J]. Quaternary Sciences,1997, 4(1):1-11.]

[7] 宋保平,王张华,乐群,等. 510 年来中国东中部地区气候干湿变化研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2005,21(1):69-82. [SONG Baoping,WANG Zhanghua,LE Qun,et al. Study on dry and wet climatic changes of eastern and mid-China region in recent 510 years[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2005,21(1):69-82.]

[8] 郑景云,张丕远,葛全胜,等. 过去2000a 中国东部干湿分异的百年际变化[J]. 自然科学进展,2001,11(1):65-70.[ZHENG Jingyun,ZHANG Piyuan,GE Quanshen,et al. Centennial changes of drought/flood spatial pattern in eastern China for the last 2 000 years[J]. Progress in Natural Science,2001,11(1):65-70.]

[9] 朱亚芬. 530 年来中国东部旱涝分区及北方旱涝演变[J]. 地理学报,2003,8(S1):100-107.[ZHU Yafen. The regional division of dryness/wetness over eastern China and variations of dryness/wetness in northern China during the last 530 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,8(S1):100-107.]

[10] 梁旭,冯建民,张智,等. 陕甘宁青蒙相邻干旱地区近530 年旱涝灾害、突变分析及其趋势预测[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2004,18(2):44-47.[LIANG Xu,FENG Jianmin,ZHANG Zhi, et al. Near 500 years drought-waterlogging analyze and its tendence study in arid area of east of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2004,18(2):44-47.]

[11] 任朝霞,陆玉麒,杨达源. 近2000年黑河流域旱涝变化研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(4):90-93.[REN Zhaoxia,LU Yuqi,YANG Dayuan. Study on drought and flood changes in recent 2000 a in Heihe River Basin[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2009,23(4):90-93.]

[12] 郭瑞,查小春. 泾河流域1470-1979 年旱涝灾害变化规律分析[J]. 陕西师范大学学报,2009,37(3):90-95.[GUO Rui,ZHA Xiaochun. Analysis on the change law of drought and flood disaster in Jinghe Basin from 1470 to 1979[J]. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2009,37(3): 90-95.]

[13] 杨凌,查小春. 千河流域近540 a 来旱涝灾害变化规律研究[J]. 干旱区地理,2012,35(1):133-138.[YANG Ling,ZHA Xiaochun. Change law of drought and flood disasters in Qianhe Basin from 1470 to 2009[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1): 133-138.]

[14] 赵红岩,王有恒,王兴,等. 1961-2008 年中国西北东部旱涝异常分布及干旱变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理,2012,35(4):552-556.[ZHAO Hongyan,WANG Youheng,WANG Xing,et al. Anomaly distribution of drought-flood and changing characteristics of arid over eastern northwest China during 1961-2008[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(4):552-556.]

[15] 方建刚,肖科丽,王娜,等,初夏东亚季风强度指数与陕西降水异常关系[J]. 干旱区地理,2014,37(1):1-8.[FANG Jiangang, XIAO Keli,WANG Na,et al. East-Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity Indexes in Early Summer and Their Anomalous Relationship with Precipitation in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014,37(1):1-8.]

[16] 谭其骧. 中国历史地图集[M]. 北京:中国地图出版社,1992. [TAN Qixiang. The historical atlas of China[M]. Beijing:Sino Maps Press,1992.]

[17] 白虎志,董安祥,郑广芬,等. 中国西北地区近500 年旱涝分布图集[M]. 北京:气象出版社,2010.[BAI Huzhi,DONG Anxiang, ZHENG Guangfen,et al. Atlas of the drought/flood category for nearly 500 years in Northwestern China[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2010.]

[18] 张德二. 中国近三千年气象记录总集[M]. 南京:凤凰出版社, 2004.[ZHANG Deer. A compendium of Chinese meteorological records of the last 3 000 years[M]. Nanjing:Fenghuang Publishing House,2004.]

[19] 温克刚. 中国气象灾害大典·宁夏卷[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 2007.[WEN Kegang. Complete book of meteorological disasters in China(Ningxia volume)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.]

[20] 《陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实》编委会. 陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实[M]. 北京:气象出版社,2002.[Editorial Board of Summary Record of Natural Disasters in History of Shaanxi. Summary record of natural disasters in history in Shaanxi[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2002.]

[21] 水利电力部水管司、科技司,水利水电科学研究院. 清代黄河流域洪涝档案史料[M]. 北京:中华书局,1993.[Water Resources Management Division,Technology Division,Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power Research. Historical archives of Yellow River flood in Qing Dynasty[M]. Beijing: Zhonghua Book Company,1993.]

[22] 陇县地方志编纂委员会. 陇县志[M]. 西安:陕西人民出版社, 1993.[Long County Annals'Committee. Long County annals[M]. Xi'an:Shaanxi People's Press,1993.]

[23] 凤翔县地方志编纂委员会. 凤翔县志[M]. 西安:陕西人民出版社,1991.[Fengxiang County Annals'Committee. Fengxiang County annals[M]. Xi'an:Shaanxi People's Press,1991.]

[24] 中国气象局气象科学研究院. 中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M]. 北京:地图出版社,1981.[Central Meteorological Bureau of China. Atlas of the drought/flood category for the last 500 years in China[M]. Beijing:Map Press,1981.]

[25] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京:气象出版社,1999.[WEI Fengying. Statistical diagnosis and forecast in model climate[M]. Beijing:China,Meteorological Press,1999.]

[26] 刘志方,刘友存,郝永红,等.黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2014,37(6):1137－1146. [LIU Zhifang,LIU Youcun,HAO Yonghong,et al. Multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in the Upstream of Heihe River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014,37(6):1137-1146.]

[27] 徐振韬,蒋窈窕. 中国古代太阳黑子研究与现代应用[M]. 南京:南京大学出版社,1990.[XU Zhentao,JIANG Yaotiao. Research and modern applications of the sunspot in ancient China[M]. Nanjing:Nanjing University Press,1990.]

[28] 庞奖励. 黄土高原稳定同位素与古环境研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 1998,21(3):87-95.[PANG Jiangli. Progress in the studies of stable isotope and evolution of monsoon on the Loess Plateau, China[J]. Arid Land Geography,1998,21(3):87-95.]

[29] FLEITMANNA D,BURNS S J,MUDELSEE M,et al. Holocene forcing of the Indian Monsoon recorded in a stalagmite high-resolution speleothem δ¹⁸O record from southern Oman[J]. Seience, 2003,300:1737-1739.

[30] 安春雷,张平中,代志波,等. 中国黄土高原西缘甘肃万象洞 MIS5 石笋δ¹⁸O记录与南方地区石笋记录的对比研究[J]. 第四纪研究,2006,26(6):985-990.[AN Chunlei,ZHANG Pingzhong, DAI Zhibo,et al. Comparison of δ¹⁸ recode during MIS5 in Wanxiang cave stalagmite,Gansu Province of western Loess Plateau and those of Southern China stalagmites[J]. Quaternary Sciences,2006,26(6):985-990.]