关键词: 气候因子, 地表水资源, 新疆北部

Abstract: Xinjiang is divided by the Tianshan Mountains into two parts, i. e., north Xinjiang and south Xinjiang. Surface water resources in north Xinjiang occupies 49. 4% of the total in whole Xinjiang. It contributes to the rational utilization of surface water resources, timely guiding the operation of the reservoirs and cannal system, and providing the reliable scientific basis for the rapid economic development to correctly assess the volume of surface water resources and the quantitative effect of the main climatic factors on surface water resources under the different climatic conditions in north Xinjiang. Through the correlation analysis between the climatic factors and the surface water resources in north Xinjiang, the following main conclusions can be obtained in the paper： (1) The annual precipitation in a hydrologic year from September to August next year is the dominant climatic factor affecting the surface water resources in north Xinjiang, and increases the surface water resources; the cumulative value of the mean monthly air temperatures from May to July is the subsidiary climatic factor, and reduces the surface water resources owing to the increase of evaporation during this period. (2) The climatic factors at the representative meterological stations in the western part of north Xinjiang have the most significant influence on the surface water resources in north Xinjiang. (3) The quantitative assessment about the influence of climatic fluctuation on the surface water resources in north Xinjiang are roughly as following：when the cumulative value of the mean monthly air temperatures from May to July is equal to the mult-i year average value and the annual precipitation in a hydrologic year increases or decreases for 10%, the surface water resources in north Xinjiang increases for 6.0% or decreases for 8. 1% respectively; when the annual precipitation in a hydrologic year is equal to the mult-i year average value and the cumulative value of the mean monthly air temperatures from May to July is 2.0℃ higher or lower than that of average, the surface water resources here decreases for 3.5% or increases for 1.4% respectively.

Key words: climatic factor, surface water resources, correlation analysis, Xinjiang