基于SD模型的巴彦淖尔市水资源供需平衡方案研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.232

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 202-211.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.232 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024232

基于SD模型的巴彦淖尔市水资源供需平衡方案研究

王平顺¹^,²(), 臧旭超³, 厚富来¹^,², 田国良¹^,², 李璐¹^,², 韩学敏¹^,², 董少刚¹^,²()

1.内蒙古大学生态与环境学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010021
2.内蒙古自治区河流与湖泊生态重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010021
3.内蒙古第一水文地质工程地质勘查有限责任公司，内蒙古呼和浩特 010021

收稿日期:2024-04-12 修回日期:2024-06-28 出版日期:2025-02-25 发布日期:2025-02-25
通讯作者: 董少刚（1975-），男，教授，主要从事生态水文地质研究. E-mail: groundwater@163.com
作者简介:王平顺（2000-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事生态水文地质研究. E-mail: yuuwps@163.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区驻点城市生态环境保护治理攻坚“一市一策”综合解决方案项目基金(2022-YRUC-01-050205-01)

Water resources supply and demand balance scheme of Bayannur City based on SD model

WANG Pingshun¹^,²(), ZANG Xuchao³, HOU Fulai¹^,², TIAN Guoliang¹^,², LI Lu¹^,², HAN Xuemin¹^,², DONG Shaogang¹^,²()

1. School of Ecology and Environment, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, Inner Mongolia, China
2. Key Laboratory of River and Lake Ecology of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot 010021, Inner Mongolia, China
3. Inner Mongolia First Hydrogeological Engineering Geological Exploration Co., Ltd., Hohhot 010021, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2024-04-12 Revised:2024-06-28 Published:2025-02-25 Online:2025-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着社会经济的发展，越来越多的城市水资源供需矛盾日益突出，探求城市水资源供需平衡以实现经济的可持续发展已经成为当下城市发展规划过程中的重要议题。结合当地社会发展现状，运用系统动力学的方法设计出稳态均衡型、经济增长型、高效利用型和综合协调型4种水资源供需平衡方案，分析了2016—2035年巴彦淖尔市水资源供需状况。模拟结果表明：（1）巴彦淖尔市若采取稳态均衡型和经济增长型方案，预计在2018—2027年将面临水资源供应无法满足需求的风险。（2）采用高效利用型和综合协调型方案却能够有效改善这一状况。（3）综合协调型方案不仅有利于当地经济的发展，还有效降低了农业、第二产业和第三产业需水量，极大缓解了水资源供需压力，可作为当地水资源未来开发利用的优选方案。

关键词: 系统动力学, 水资源供需, 水均衡, 巴彦淖尔市

Abstract:

With the development of the social economy, the contradiction between the supply and demand of urban water resources has become increasingly prominent. Exploring the balance between urban water resource supply and demand to achieve sustainable economic development has emerged as a critical issue in urban development planning. Based on the current state of local social development, four water resource supply-demand balance schemes (steady-state equilibrium, economic growth, efficient utilization, and comprehensive coordination)were designed using the system dynamics method. The supply and demand situation of water resources in Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia, China from 2016 to 2035 was analyzed. The simulation results indicate that: (1) If Bayannur City adopts the steady-state equilibrium or economic growth schemes, it will likely face a risk of water resource supply failing to meet demand during 2018—2027. (2) The efficient utilization and integrated coordination schemes can effectively mitigate this issue. (3) The comprehensive coordination scheme not only supports local economic development but also significantly reduces the water demand of agriculture, secondary industry, and tertiary industry, thereby alleviating the pressure on water supply and demand. This scheme can serve as the optimal approach for the future development and utilization of local water resources.

Key words: system dynamics, water supply and demand, water balance, Bayannur City

王平顺, 臧旭超, 厚富来, 田国良, 李璐, 韩学敏, 董少刚. 基于SD模型的巴彦淖尔市水资源供需平衡方案研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(2): 202-211.

WANG Pingshun, ZANG Xuchao, HOU Fulai, TIAN Guoliang, LI Lu, HAN Xuemin, DONG Shaogang. Water resources supply and demand balance scheme of Bayannur City based on SD model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 202-211.

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变量		2020年	2021年	2022年
GDP	实际值/10⁸元	869.620	1015.230	1084.55
	模拟值/10⁸元	931.186	995.541	1065.430
	ARE误差/%	7.08	1.94	1.76
农业需水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	47.901	48.840	48.500
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	47.965	48.227	48.301
	ARE误差/%	0.13	1.26	0.41
总人口数	实际值/10⁸人	0.0150	0.0150	0.0152
	模拟值/10⁸人	0.0167	0.0166	0.0164
	ARE误差/%	8.28	8.41	8.37
第二产业需水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	0.641	0.689	0.600
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	0.682	0.661	0.648
	ARE误差/%	6.39	4.04	7.98
供水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	56.499	55.864	51.310
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	52.499	52.502	52.509
	ARE误差/%	7.08	6.02	2.34
需水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	49.890	49.790	49.780
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	54.281	54.537	54.616
	ARE误差/%	8.80	9.53	9.71

指标名称	基准年变量值	变量变化范围	基准年供需比	2035年供需比	SA
第二产业产值增长率	2.689%	0%~6.972%	1.04953	1.12010	1.012
第三产业产值增长率	12.572%	-15.788%~0%	1.04953	1.12006	-0.447
单位第二产业GDP需水量	3.76×10^-3 m³·元^-1	-2.816×10^-3~0 m³·元^-1	1.04974	1.12002	-24.958
单位第三产业GDP需水量	8.045×10^-4 m³·元^-1	-7.364×10^-4~0 m³·元^-1	1.04984	1.12006	-88.037
农村居民生活用水定额	19 m³·人^-1·a^-1	-1~0 m³·人^-1·a^-1	1.04970	1.12016	-0.070
城市居民生活用水定额	21 m³·人^-1·a^-1	-1~0 m³·人^-1·a^-1	1.04971	1.12022	-0.071
大型牲畜用水定额	21.9 m³·只^-1·a^-1	-1.095~0 m³·只^-1·a^-1	1.04959	1.12099	-0.065
小型牲畜用水定额	2.01 m³·只^-1·a^-1	-0.103~0 m³·只^-1·a^-1	1.04969	1.12038	-0.687
灌溉需水定额	6.0×10⁷ m³·hm^-2·a^-1	-3.0×10⁴~0 m³·hm^-2·a^-1	1.09701	1.16873	-35.860

基于SD模型的巴彦淖尔市水资源供需平衡方案研究

Water resources supply and demand balance scheme of Bayannur City based on SD model

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