中巴农产品贸易的效率评价与潜力预测研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.06.25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1992—2016年中国与南亚八国的相关贸易数据，从巴基斯坦的角度出发，选取南亚七国作为参考对象，利用随机前沿引力模型对其双边农产品贸易总额及出口农产品贸易总额的面板数据进行测算。研究结果表明：人均GDP、国家类型等因素对中巴双边农产品贸易发展产生正向影响；人口、距离因素则阻碍中巴农产品贸易发展；中巴双边农产品贸易效率（平均值约0.689）高于中国对巴基斯坦出口农产品贸易效率（平均值约0.615）；中国对巴基斯坦实际农产品出口总额未达到最佳的贸易前沿水平，因此农产品出口还存在较大的提升空间。

关键词: font-size:10.5pt, 中巴经济走廊')">">中巴经济走廊, font-size:10.5pt, "> font-size:10.5pt, 贸易效率')">">贸易效率, font-size:10.5pt, "> font-size:10.5pt, 贸易潜力')">">贸易潜力, font-size:10.5pt, SFA')">"> SFA

Abstract: Based on the related trade data between China and the eight countries in South Asia during 1992—2016,this paper selects seven South Asian countries as a reference from the perspective of Pakistan, and uses the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model to calculate the total trade volume of its bilateral agricultural products and the total trade volume of the export agricultural products. The results show that the factors such as per capita GDP and state type have a positive impact on the bilateral agricultural trade development of China and Pakistan; population and distance factors hindered the trade development of China-Pakistan agricultural products, and the trade efficiency of bilateral agricultural products (average value of about 0.689) was higher than that of China’s export to Pakistan agricultural products (average value about 0.615);China’s total export of agricultural products to Pakistan is far from the best trade level, so the trade potential of export agricultural products could be greatly improved, and then China is likely to turn from trade surplus to trade deficit.

Key words: China-Pakistan economic corridor')">">China-Pakistan economic corridor, trade efficiency, trade potential, stochastic frontier gravity model

舒芹, 苏洋, 李凤, 汪晶晶, 黄玉洁, 刘蕾. 中巴农产品贸易的效率评价与潜力预测研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(6): 1454-1460.

SHU Qin, SU Yang, LI Feng, WANG Jing-jing, HUANG Yu-jie, LIU Lei. Bilateral trade potential and efficiency of agricultural trade between China and Pakistan[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(6): 1454-1460.

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