环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.26

干旱区地理 ›› 2019, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 689-697.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.26

环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例

董棒棒¹，李莉¹，唐洪松²，苏洋³

（1 新疆农业大学管理学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830052； 2 内江师范学院经济与管理学院，四川内江 641100；3 新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830052）

收稿日期:2018-10-12 修回日期:2019-01-09 出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-21
通讯作者: 李莉( 1973 - ) ，女，四川荣昌人，副教授，硕士生导师，研究方向为资源经济与管理、环境公共政策分析E-mail：466347947@qq.com
作者简介:董棒棒（1992-），男，河南洛阳人，硕士研究生，研究方向为资源环境政策研究. E-mail：464792418@qq.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(13BMZ074)；国家自然科学基金项目（71640031）

Environmental regulation,FDI and energy consumption peak carbon emissions forecast:A case of five provinces in northwest China

DONG Bangbang¹, LI Li¹, TANG Hongsong², SU Yang³

(1 College of Management,Xinjiang Agriculture University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China;2 School of Economics and Management,Neijiang Normal University,Neijiang 641100,Sichuan,China;3 College of Economics and Trade,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China)

Received:2018-10-12 Revised:2019-01-09 Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于STIRPAT模型，运用情景分析法对西北地区2017—2030年能源消费碳排放进行预测，在高、中、低三种环境规制强度下设定出9种发展模式，以分析环境规制与FDI对能源碳排放峰值的影响。研究表明：（1）在初始发展情境下，西北地区2030年碳排放总量为70 273.07×10⁴ t，无法实现碳排放达峰目标。（2）低环境规制背景下，高、高中、高低三种发展模式2030年能源消费碳排放额为73 550.53×10⁴ t、64 881.98×10⁴ t、56 296.96×10⁴ t。（3）中、高环境规制下，中低、低两种发展模式分别于2025年、2020年达到碳排放峰值，峰值额度为53 447.15×10⁴ t、51 022.68×10⁴ t。能源碳排放强度为0.86 t·（10⁴元）^-1、0.68 t·（10⁴元）^-1，相比较2005年碳排放强度下降48.38%、60.14%。9种发展模式中，仅中低、低两种发展模式能够如期实现碳排放峰值任务，表明严格的环境规制政策能够有效减缓西北地区能源消费碳排放，为促进西北地区碳排放峰值目标如期实现，针对西北地区碳减排工作提出了相应对策建议。

关键词: 环境规制, 能源消费碳排放, 碳排峰值预测, 西北地区

Abstract: This paper calculates the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in the five northwestern provinces of China from 1997 to 2016 based on the carbon emission coefficient of the IPCC list.Using STIRPAT model,taking the total carbon emissions of energy consumption as a dependent variable,and taking environmental regulation intensity,FDI,population,per capita GDP,the proportion of secondary production,energy carbon emissions intensity as independent variables,the ridge regression method is used to fit the peak carbon emissions prediction model of energy consumption in the five northwestern provinces.Under three patterns of high,medium and low environmental regulation intensity,9 development models were set up by scenario simulation to predict and analyze the total carbon emissions of energy consumption in northwestern China from 2017 to 2030.The results showed as follows: (1) With the growth rate of each variable unchanged,the carbon emissions of energy consumption in northwestern China in from 2017 to 2030 showed an overall growth trend,and could not reach the peak of carbon emissions as scheduled.The total carbon emissions in 2030 is 70 273.07×10⁴ t. (2) Under the background of low environmental regulation,the three development models of high,highmedium and highlow can not achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions on schedule.The carbon emissions of energy consumption of each model in 2030 are 73 550.53×10⁴ t,64 881.98×10⁴ t,56 296.96×10⁴ t respectively. (3) under the medium and high environmental regulations,the carbon emissions of energy consumption in northwestern China have been effectively controlled.The carbon emissions hit its peak in 2025 and 2020 respectively under the low and medium development modes,the peak of carbon emissions are 53 447.15×10⁴ t,51 022.68×10⁴ t respectively.For the peak of the two development models in 2030,the total carbon emissions were decreased by 110 402.10×10⁴ t and 75 948.78×10⁴ t respectively if compared with the benchmark development model.The intensity of energy carbon emissions were 0.86 t per 10 000  Yuan and 0.68 t per 10 000 Yuan respectively,which were 48.38% and 60.14% lower respectively than that of 2005.This shows that the strict environmental regulation policy can effectively slow down the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the northwestern region,and it is of great significance to achieve the goal of peak carbon emissions on schedule.Based on the above research,the following suggestions are proposed: Firstly,the proportion of environmental governance in government performance appraisal should be expand; secondly,it is needed to optimize the structure of attracting investment and to promote the upgrading of industrial structure in northwestern China,enhancing the concept of green government in different regions; thirdly,it is urgent to improve the intensity of regional environmental regulation and formulate environmental governance policies in different stages.

Key words: environmental regulation, carbon emissions from energy consumption, carbon emission peak prediction, the northwest China

董棒棒, 李莉, 唐洪松, 苏洋. 环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42(3): 689-697.

DONG Bangbang, LI Li, TANG Hongsong, SU Yang. Environmental regulation,FDI and energy consumption peak carbon emissions forecast:A case of five provinces in northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 689-697.

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环境规制、FDI与能源消费碳排放峰值预测——以西北五省为例

Environmental regulation,FDI and energy consumption peak carbon emissions forecast:A case of five provinces in northwest China

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