新疆哈密2018·7·31特大暴雨山洪汇水量估算与应用研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.04.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在干旱少雨的山区开展小流域的暴雨山洪预报预警关键技术研究,对防灾减灾意义重大。2018年7月31日新疆哈密北部山区出现特大暴雨,发生罕见的山洪灾害,致使射月沟流域水库漫坝溃口,下游受灾严重。射月沟流域气象观测站点少且缺乏水文监测资料,为客观定量分析射月沟流域大暴雨面雨量、形成的洪水汇水量以及致灾水库过程。通过采用空间插值法和多源融合逐时降水资料（CMPAS）计算了射月沟水库上游面雨量并进行检验分析。根据不同面雨量驱动Floodarea模型得出射月沟水库上游累计汇水量,结果表明：多源融合降水产品估算所得最大洪峰流量和累计汇水量与水利部门事后调查数据较吻合,最大洪峰量为1 756 m³·s^-1,精确性达到调查值的95%,射月沟水库上游暴雨山洪总量为2.64×10⁷ m³,远超该水库的防洪库容和溢洪道承载能力。

关键词: 特大暴雨, 面雨量, 汇水量, Floodarea模型, 哈密

Abstract: In order to mitigate the flooding disasters induced by severe rainfall over mountain regions,it is very important to estimate the water collection amount. However,in arid mountain regions,meteorological and hydrological stations are usually scarce and unevenly distributed,leading to difficulties in the estimation of this parameter. In such cases,a reasonable estimation of the areal rainfall is necessary and offers the initial conditions for driving hydrological models. In this paper,we studied an extreme rainfall event that occurred in Hami City,Xinjiang,China on July 31,2018 and that resulted in the break of a local dam. The northeastern part of Hami corresponds to the easternmost area of the Tianshan Mountains. This area is characterized by very hot summers and an annual mean precipitation of 43–118 mm. Due to a lack of vegetation,flooding disasters occur frequently along the hilly southern slope of this area;nevertheless,local meteorological and hydrological stations are rare. On July 31,2018,from midnight to 13：00,an extreme rainfall event occurred over northeastern Hami and led to a severe flood. This caused the break of the Sheyuegou Reservoir and,consequently,the death of many people. In this paper,the areal rainfall,water collection amount,and breaking process of the local dam were objectively evaluated. In order to obtain a reasonable estimation of the areal rainfall,three interpolation methods were applied to the meteorological station data,together with a multi-source fusion data reanalysis. Overall,the four estimation methods demonstrated correlations between 0.76–0.97;notably,the best estimation was given by the multi-source fusion data reanalysis. The estimated areal rainfall was then used to drive the FloodArea Model,obtaining the water collection amount for the upper reach of the Sheyuegou Reservoir：the values varied between 1.471×10⁷ m³ and 2.892×10⁷ m³. The water collection amount obtained by using the CMPAS areal rainfall was further compared with the results of a post-disaster investigation on the dam breaking process. The calculated hourly water collection amount and the flood peak flow were in good agreement with the results of the post-disaster investigation. In particular,the flood peak flow was 1.756 × 10³ m³·s^-1 （very similar to that derived from hydrological observations）,while the total flood charge was 2.639×10⁷ m³ （much higher that the flood control and spillway carrying capacities of the reservoir）.

Key words: heavy rain, areal rainfall, water-collecting amount, Floodarea, Hami City

王梅霞, 张太西, 余行杰, 张连成, 张旭. 新疆哈密2018·7·31特大暴雨山洪汇水量估算与应用研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4): 939-945.

WANG Mei-xia, ZHANG Tai-xi, YU Xing-jie, ZHANG Lian-cheng, ZHANG Xu. Estimation and application of water-collecting amount during an extreme heavy rainfall induced flash flooding in Hami City on 31st July 2018[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 939-945.

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