克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用克拉玛依区气象站1957—2016年历年12月降水量观测资料，运用序列检验、不成对秩和检验以及t-检验法等统计学方法，对开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业前历史期31 a和作业期29 a的年12月降水量作为统计变量，进行系统性差异分析。结果表明：开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业后克拉玛依市冬季12月降水量明显增加，降水量平均值增加了2 mm。运用非参数性不成对秩和检验显著性水平达到0.025，参数性t-检验显著性水平也接近0.025。选取统计显著性水平0.1置信区间，计算得，冬季开展飞机人工增雪作业后，克拉玛依市平均年12月降水量绝对增加值为1.15 mm，相对增加率为24.5%。从而得出：开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业后，克拉玛依市冬季降水量有了明显增加。

关键词: 飞机人工增雪, 作业效果, 统计分析

Abstract: In order to objectively evaluate the effect of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay,Xinjiang,China,it is need to analyze the systematic significance of snowfall enhancement.In this paper,utilizing the sequence test,unpaired rank sum test and t-test of statistical methods,the systematic differences of annual precipitation in December of the former historical period 31 a and the latter period 29 a of the carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement are analyzed in Karamay, with annual precipitation data of Karamay Weather Station in December from 1957-2016,as a beginning to carry out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in 1988.The results show that the precipitation in December in Karamay was significantly increased in December after the operation of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement,regardless of the maximum, minimum and average value.It added 2.3 mm, 1.1 mm and 2.02 mm respectively.In particular, the minimum rainfall period is 12 times that of the historical period.This would play a positive role in alleviating the shortage of water resources.The inspection significance level of non-parameter unpaired rank sum test is 0.025,and the inspection significance level of parametric t-test is also close to 0.025.According to the calculation, the absolute increase of the precipitation in Karamay in December is 1.15 mm,and the relative enhancive rate is 24.5% after carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay when the statistical significant level α=0.1 is chosen.Therefore, through carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter, it is significant for the precipitation enhancement in Karamay,it has a certain effect on the local tense production and domestic water consumption in arid areas.Remarkable social and economic benefits.This paper makes a reasonable utility of statistical methods to analyze the effects of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in the winter in Karamay,and concludes the qualitative conclusions and the quantitative results.It is of some guiding significance to design and evaluate the application of aircraft artificial precipitation enhancement in science.

Key words: aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement, effect, statistical analysis

中图分类号:

P481

李斌, 郑博华, 兰文杰, 杨琳. 克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 686-692.

LI Bin, ZHENG Bo-hua, LAN Wen-jie, YANG Lin. Statistical analysis of effect of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter at Karamay[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 686-692.

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