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干旱区地理 ›› 2013, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1162-1169.

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆农地利用碳排放时空差异及驱动机理研究

苏洋1,马惠兰1,颜璐2   

  1. (1    新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院, 新疆    乌鲁木齐    830052;    2    新疆农业大学管理学院, 新疆    乌鲁木齐    830052)
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-21 修回日期:2013-03-18 出版日期:2013-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 马惠兰(1962-),女,教授,博士生导师,主要从事农业经济理论与政策、资源与环境经济方面的研究.Email:mahuilan2003@yahoo.com.cn
  • 作者简介:苏洋(1987-),男,博士研究生,研究方向为资源与环境经济. Email:suyang198704@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(71163041);自治区高校科研计划(XJEDU2010I27)

Spatial-temporal differences and driving mechanism of agricultural land use carbon emission in Xinjiang

SU  Yang1,MA  Hui-lan1,YAN  Lu2   

  1. (1   Economics and Trade Collage of Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi  830052, Xinjiang China;2   Management Collage of Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi  830052, Xinjiang, China)
  • Received:2013-01-21 Revised:2013-03-18 Online:2013-11-25

摘要: 基于化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油、翻耕、灌溉6个主要方面的碳源,测算了新疆1993-2010年及各地州2010年的农地利用碳排放量。结果表明:(1)新疆农地利用碳排量总体呈“快速-缓慢-快速”的三阶段增长特征,其碳排放强度变化轨迹与此基本一致;(2)各地州区域差异明显,昌吉回族州属碳排放量、碳排放强度“双高”型地区;乌鲁木齐等3地区属低碳排放量、高碳排放强度地区;塔城等四地区属高碳排放量、低碳排放强度地区;哈密等六地属碳排放量和碳排放强度“双低”型地区。同时,利用kaya恒等式对其驱动机理进行分解,得出农业经济发展水平是农地碳排放的最主要驱动因素;农业生产效率对农地碳排放具有较强抑制作用;而农业结构、农业劳动力规模在不同程度上推动农地碳排放,进而提出促进新疆农地碳减排的对策建议。

关键词: 农地碳排放, 时空差异, 驱动机理, Kaya恒等式

Abstract: This study is based on six major aspects of carbon source,including chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films,agricultural diesel oil,plowing and irrigation,which measures the agricultural land use carbon emissions in Xinjiang during 1993-2010,and every prefecture and city of Xinjing in 2010. The results shows as follows:(1) In vertical perspective:the agricultural land use carbon emissions presents “fast-slow-fast” three-stage growth characteristics. From 1993 to 2010,the agricultural land use carbon emissions were increased from 94.79 ten thousand tons to 293.47 ten thousand tons. the carbon emissions of chemical fertilizer is the main factor,accounting for over 55% of the Xinjiang agricultural land use carbon emissions. The intensity of agricultural land use carbon emissions also presents “fast-slow-fast” three-stage growth characteristics. It has been increased from 316.47 kg/hm2 in 1993 to 616.71 kg/hm2 in 2010. (2) In lateral view:all state regional differences are significant. Changji Prefecture belongs to the “double high”type area—high carbon emission,high carbon emission intensity. Urumqi and other two prefectures are the type areas of low carbon emission,high carbon emission intensity. Tacheng and other two prefectures are the type areas of high carbon emission,low carbon emission intensity. Hami and other five prefectures are the “double low” type areas—low carbon emission,low carbon emission intensity. Further,by using the Kaya identity equation,the decomposed driving mechanism is worked out. The driving mechanism shows that:From 1994 to 2010,the level of agricultural economic development is the main driving factor that affects agricultural land use carbon emission,it has produced 226.20 ten thousand tons carbon increment,about 126% of carbon emissions increment. Meanwhile,the agricultural structural factors and the size of the agricultural labor force factors have promoted agricultural carbon emissions in varying degrees. From 1994 to 2010,these two factors totally produced 8.37 ten thousand tons and 16.84 ten thousand tons carbon emissions,respectively. It is about 3.57% and 7.18% of agricultural land use carbon emissions increment. On the contrary,the agricultural efficiency factor has a strong inhibitory effect on agricultural land use carbon emissions,it has provided 87.83 ten thousand tons of carbon emissions reduction that is nearly 37.46% of the agricultural land use carbon emissions increment. Based on the above analyses,the paper presents some suggestions about low-carbon agricultural land use of Xinjiang:(1) In order to promote agricultural synergism of abridged edition,it is crucial to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural production data. (2) In order to make agricultural structure diversified and low carbonized,the Xinjiang government should further substantially increase the structural adjustment to agriculture,and constantly optimize the agricultural planting structure and layout. (3) The model of agricultural economic growth should be changed into the road of “Resource saving” and “Environment friendly”. In view of agricultural land use,this paper researched agricultural carbon emissions in western backward area,and proposed some solutions to the existing problems to some degree,it makes up for the deficiency of the current research.

Key words: agricultural land use carbon emission, spatial-temporal differences, driving mechanism, Kaya identity equation

中图分类号: 

  • X196