关键词: 农地碳排放, 时空差异, 驱动机理, Kaya恒等式

Abstract: This study is based on six major aspects of carbon source，including chemical fertilizers，pesticides，agricultural films，agricultural diesel oil，plowing and irrigation，which measures the agricultural land use carbon emissions in Xinjiang during 1993-2010，and every prefecture and city of Xinjing in 2010. The results shows as follows：（1） In vertical perspective：the agricultural land use carbon emissions presents “fast-slow-fast” three-stage growth characteristics. From 1993 to 2010，the agricultural land use carbon emissions were increased from 94.79 ten thousand tons to 293.47 ten thousand tons. the carbon emissions of chemical fertilizer is the main factor，accounting for over 55% of the Xinjiang agricultural land use carbon emissions. The intensity of agricultural land use carbon emissions also presents “fast-slow-fast” three-stage growth characteristics. It has been increased from 316.47 kg/hm2 in 1993 to 616.71 kg/hm2 in 2010. （2） In lateral view：all state regional differences are significant. Changji Prefecture belongs to the “double high”type area—high carbon emission，high carbon emission intensity. Urumqi and other two prefectures are the type areas of low carbon emission，high carbon emission intensity. Tacheng and other two prefectures are the type areas of high carbon emission，low carbon emission intensity. Hami and other five prefectures are the “double low” type areas—low carbon emission，low carbon emission intensity. Further，by using the Kaya identity equation，the decomposed driving mechanism is worked out. The driving mechanism shows that：From 1994 to 2010，the level of agricultural economic development is the main driving factor that affects agricultural land use carbon emission，it has produced 226.20 ten thousand tons carbon increment，about 126% of carbon emissions increment. Meanwhile，the agricultural structural factors and the size of the agricultural labor force factors have promoted agricultural carbon emissions in varying degrees. From 1994 to 2010，these two factors totally produced 8.37 ten thousand tons and 16.84 ten thousand tons carbon emissions，respectively. It is about 3.57% and 7.18% of agricultural land use carbon emissions increment. On the contrary，the agricultural efficiency factor has a strong inhibitory effect on agricultural land use carbon emissions，it has provided 87.83 ten thousand tons of carbon emissions reduction that is nearly 37.46% of the agricultural land use carbon emissions increment. Based on the above analyses，the paper presents some suggestions about low-carbon agricultural land use of Xinjiang：（1） In order to promote agricultural synergism of abridged edition，it is crucial to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural production data. （2） In order to make agricultural structure diversified and low carbonized，the Xinjiang government should further substantially increase the structural adjustment to agriculture，and constantly optimize the agricultural planting structure and layout. （3） The model of agricultural economic growth should be changed into the road of “Resource saving” and “Environment friendly”. In view of agricultural land use，this paper researched agricultural carbon emissions in western backward area，and proposed some solutions to the existing problems to some degree，it makes up for the deficiency of the current research.

Key words: agricultural land use carbon emission, spatial-temporal differences, driving mechanism, Kaya identity equation