中国西北干旱区夏季降水异常的主模态年代际变化及其联系环流

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.569

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961—2022年6—8月中国西北干旱区102个气象站的逐日降水数据和ERA5月均大气再分析数据，采用经验正交函数分解和一元线性回归等统计方法，分析了中国西北干旱区夏季降水异常的主模态年代际的变化及其联系环流。结果表明：（1）中国西北干旱区夏季降水量经历了明显的年代际变化特征，可分为干期（1961—1986年）和湿期（1987—2022年）2个时期，湿期塔里木盆地降水量的增多由降水日数和降水强度增加共同贡献，特别是降水日数的增加尤为显著，增幅超过2 d，其余地区降水强度增强扮演了主要角色。（2）中国西北干旱区干期夏季降水异常的主模态依次为新疆北部型、塔里木盆地型和河西-阿拉善型，湿期夏季降水量异常的主模态变为新疆北部型、河西-阿拉善型和塔里木盆地西部型。（3）不同年代际背景下，同一降水异常模态的联系环流存在明显差异，主要体现在副热带西风急流位置的移动、中亚气旋和蒙古反气旋（气旋）的配置及水汽输送源地和路径的变化。

关键词: 夏季降水异常, 年代际变化, 主模态, 联系环流, 中国西北干旱区

Abstract:

Based on the data for daily rainfall in summer at 102 meteorological stations in the arid region of northwest China and the monthly ERA5 atmospheric circulation reanalysis data for 1961—2022, the interdecadal changes in the dominant modes of summer rainfall anomaly in the arid region of northwest China and the associated circulations of these modes are investigated. The results show that: (1) The summer rainfall in the arid region of northwest China exhibits obvious interdecadal variation, which can be divided into two periods: the dry period (1961—1986) and the wet period (1987—2022). During the wet period, the increase in rainfall in the Tarim Basin is attributed to an increase in the number of rainfall days and the rainfall intensity, especially the increase in the number of rainfall days, which is more than 2 d, whereas it is attributed to an increase in rainfall intensity in the rest of the region. (2) The dominant modes of summer rainfall in the arid region of northwest China during the dry period are the northern Xinjiang type, the Tarim Basin type, and the Hexi-Alagxa type, whereas during the wet period, the dominant modes of summer rainfall are the northern Xinjiang type, the Hexi-Alagxa type and the western Tarim Basin type. (3) There are obvious differences in the circulations of the same rainfall type over different interdecadal periods, and such differences in circulations are mainly reflected in the movement of the subtropical westerly jet, the structures of the Central Asian cyclone and the Mongolian anticyclone (cyclone), and changes in the source and path of water vapor transport.

Key words: summer rainfall anomaly, interdecadal change, dominant modes, associated circulations, arid region of northwest China

郑孟林, 赵勇, 杨霞. 中国西北干旱区夏季降水异常的主模态年代际变化及其联系环流[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(9): 1511-1520.

ZHENG Menglin, ZHAO Yong, YANG Xia. Interdecadal changes and associated circulations in the dominant modes of summer rainfall anomaly in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1511-1520.

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